Earlier today, DocJess posted the first Sunday with the Senators of this cycle. I am posting this follow-up on the weird features of Maine election law that could determine whether there is a Democratic majority in 2020.
In Maine, for federal elections, there is ranked choice voting — both for the general election and the primary. While we do not yet know the full list of candidates who will be running in 2020, my hunch is that ranked choice voting probably hurts Senator Collins in the primary but may help her in the general election.
My thinking behind this is that a multi-candidate primary field would make it difficult for any candidate to get more first choice votes than Senator Collins. However, I think that most of the primary challenge to Senator Collins will be from candidates who do not think that she is loyal to the new LePage-Trump version of the Republican Party and see her as a RINO. The voters who support these candidates are likely to rank Senator Collins last among their choices. So if Senator Collins only got 45% or so of the first choice votes, there would be a decent chance (assuming that everybody ranked the entire field) that the strongest of her opponents would pass her once all preferences are distributed. A primary loss by Senator Collins would move the Maine Senate race from lean Republican to likely Democrat.
If Senator Collins wins the primary, however, I would not be shocked if ranked choice voting helped her in the general election. Even more so than in the primary, the impact on the general will depend on who is running and where they fall on the political spectrum. I think that those who want a Democrat to replace Senator Collins are very likely to vote for the Democratic nominee in 2020. (If a Green candidate runs in 2020, the Democratic nominee would probably get a majority of their votes when preferences are distributed.) I think, however, that voters for some of the other candidates are going to less solidly “anybody but Senator Collins.” Thus, if the Democrat is not close to 50% on first preference votes, I can see Senator Collins gaining votes when preferences are distributed and perhaps passing the Democratic nominee when all preferences are distributed (sort of the opposite of what happened in the race for Maine’s Second District in the 2018 election).
The bottom line, however, is that ranked choice voting makes it harder to evaluate what will happen in Maine elections going forward. As we have seen in other places that use ranked choice voting (e.g., Australia), it is hard to overcome a candidate who has a large lead in first choice votes and is barely short of 50%. Simply put, enough votes will drop out and some of those who voted for other candidates will go to the leading candidate in later rounds to make it difficult to pass such a candidate. On the other hand, most of these other countries have strong third parties on both the right and the left of the political spectrum — meaning that both of the two major parties have natural allies that will pick their party over the other major party in ranking the candidates. We are not quite in that situation in Maine. But, even with two independent candidates who were closer to the Democratic nominee than the Republican nominee, the Democratic candidate only picked up around 70% of the second choice vote in Maine’s Second District.) Going forward, the only way to be sure of winning is to get 50% of the first choice votes. Depending upon distribution of preferences is a gamble that will not always pay off.
Of course, all of the above depends upon whether Senator Collins runs. Given the degree of opposition that Senator Collins has earned over the years within the Republican Party and her recent reminders to Democrats that she is NOT a Democrat, she is facing her most difficult race ever. Like many traditional Republicans, if she runs, she will have to face the need to defend the actions of President Trump that are inconsistent with her version of the Republican Party. We are already seeing many traditional conservatives in the House deciding that it just isn’t worth it. And, in the end, it doesn’t matter why Susan Collins is not the Republican nominee. Her dropping out is just as good for our chances as the Maine Republicans deciding that they would rather abandon Republican values for Trump “values” (which is definitely an oxymoron).
I’m glad you finally got to “She might not run” — I think it would be an incredibly tough year for her. Ranked voting or not, I think that she has lost her support in all but the reddest of Maine areas. Will she get a primary challenge from the right? There’s one guy Derek Levasseur, who is an ex-cop who lost his job after getting arrested for assaulting some guy on personal time. He raised almost $7,000. His new career is “professional blogger” — Theoretically there is some other competitor, but no one raised any money. Everyone else is a Democrat (and one fake independent). My money’s on Sara Gideon — I think she can take the primary field. And whoever wins on the Democratic side gets the $4 million we all pledged to whomever ran against Collins if she voted for Kavanaugh. I’m dreaming blue for Maine….