I don’t just blog here, I read, too. And over the past few days, TMess has posted some riveting information, and I learned tons! I agree completely with his take on the House (link), and learned about the upcoming international elections (link) which he keeps up with, and the rest of us really should since we’re part of the world. Oh! Canada! Touch blue, make it true (for those of you who remember the 70’s).

But what really fascinated me was his information on the 2020 delegate selection plans. (Link.) The most compelling tidbit related to the changes in how Iowa will calculate its delegates. Far different from how it was through 2016. It will be a real game changer, although the math will be tricky. Remember, folks, that no matter what the national polls say, “All Politics Is Local” and it’s those primaries and caucuses that will lead to the delegate count.

I do, however, take issue with TMess’ numbers. He says that approximately a third of the delegates will be chosen by Super Tuesday. And that’s been true in the past BUT this year is different, as is my math. There are two ways to calculate delegates: one is off the total number of delegates, meaning both pledged delegates and Super Delegates. That number is 4,532. And if that’s how one counts, then “approximately a third” is okay math – the actual number is 35%. HOWEVER, the Super Delegates are not chosen at primaries nor caucuses. They are already delegates. So when you subtract the 764 Super Delegates, math indicated 3,768 pledged delegates, meaning that the actual amount of chosen delegates by Super Tuesday is 42%. Not that much of a difference, but it’s closer to half than a third. Granted, some of the dates might shift, but having both Texas and California as Super Tuesday states is a big deal in terms of pledged delegates allocated. Together, they hold 17% of the pledged delegates.

Kamala Harris is polling well in California, she has that built in home state advantage, although that may change over time. And when you look at Beto O’Rourke (who has suspended his campaign in the face of El Paso, and who really should drop and beat the pants off of Big John at the polls for the Senate seat) he may well smoke everyone else in Texas. Make sure to read TMess delegate article because those are the sort of details that will help you with your score card and making sense of the statewide polls as they change between now and Super Tuesday.

And on a local note….

Last Saturday, I had breakfast with the chair of the local Democratic Party.  In fact, that meeting, attending a protest, trying to kill Lanternflies (I was unsuccessful since I can’t kill, even though they’re very dangerous) and having to work for my regular job over the weekend precluded me from reading TMess’ articles sooner. Sigh. For those of you who don’t live around here, I live in a pivotal purple district outside of Philadelphia.

It was my first sit down with the gentleman. I’d like to start by saying that he’s a nice guy. He’s gracious, and if we were talking “stuff” in lieu of politics, he’d be fun. However, he embodies to my mind what is completely wrong with the Democratic Party at multiple levels. I mentioned to him that when our time was over, I was going over to the “stop Walmart from selling guns” protest. I invited him to join me. He at first claimed that he didn’t have time. I explained that it would be about 20 minutes, and then the cops would show and we would disperse. And that stuck in my craw, not having 20 minutes (about 10 minutes from the restaurant) to stand up and be counted about the murders and massacres. His real reason became more clear as we chatted.

My position is that the Democratic Party stands for something. It’s contained in our platform, which is rewritten and published every four years. If you’re a long time reader, you know how I feel about the platform. His position was that the party shouldn’t take a position ON ANYTHING!!! so that the candidates were free to make their own decisions on where they stand on issues. And therein lies the rub: taking a position, aligning with stated positions, and leading on those positions is what “leaders” at the local, state and national level need to do to make the party itself relevant. Too many voters are disinterested in “the party” because they see no difference between the parties. It’s one of the things that keeps people from actually voting. Sigh. Standing up matters.

Here in our little corner of the world, we have an issue called “the pipeline”. For those of you who don’t live here, for about the past hundred years, oil has been piped from the refineries in and around Philadelphia north and west up to distribution areas further inland in Pennsylvania. About 20 years ago (30 for those in the know) the idea was to build parallel pipelines to carry “bad stuff”, meaning highly volatile gases, from rural Pennsylvania TO Philadelphia where it would be loaded onto ships, sent to Europe and be made into single use plastics. Yeah, if you’re new, read that again. These new pipelines can leak, killing people. The construction of the pipeline is so slipshod that sinkholes open and make houses uninhabitable. All in all VERY BAD.

Over the years, “the party” didn’t take a position on the pipeline. We are Democrats, and if you read our platform, in fact, in EACH AND EVERY platform we’ve ever written and approved, we are against things that kill people. (Yes, I know we’re hazy where war is concerned, but in general, we’re opposed to things that kill people.) Into that vacuum came local Democrats who have taken money, advice and guidance from pro-pipeline PACs and individuals, and have used it to surreptitiously and quietly get municipalities and the county to allow for both easements and construction. That lack of party leadership over decades will end up killing people. It’s already cost multiple families their homes.

The point of being in charge of an organization, be it the smallest local cohort, a national organization, or anything in between, is to LEAD. Setting standards, taking positions, and in the case of the Democratic Party, giving people the REASONS to be Democrats. Things have changed since the 2016 platform, but it does espouse what our party stands for. You can read it here. If you listen to the 2020 presidential candidates, they have different pathways to get to the different elements in the platform, but their positions align in principle and diverge in specifics.

The kindest thing I can say about America today is that it’s a lot like the Twilight Zone. I have no doubt that eventually we will emerge from this Republican darkness – but to be positioned to retake our position as a world leader, we need party leadership at all levels. Not just candidates, but the party itself. If we cannot rebuild the party, we will be unable to attract candidates who will represent our base and our basis. We will end up with Dan Lipinski-types who oppose abortion in all cases, as well as access to health insurance. Into a vacuum always crawl the lowest of the low. I am personally agnostic on whether the party can rebuild itself from within, or will need to be taken over by new blood – but whoever prevails, please, PLEASE, let them be true leaders.