You may have wondered why Moscow Mitch allowed for a vote to release the whistle blower complaint, and then publicly announced that if the House voted to impeach, the Senate would hold a trial according to established rules. For starters, he’s underwater, with an average -23 favorability. That’s right — that’s average, the latest polling shows him at -24, or 30 favorable/54 unfavorable. He’s got a real challenge running next year against Amy McGrath. There’s no public polling yet, but she’s a strong candidate, and while she lost her last Kentucky race, that gives her the experience necessary to overcome any errors, and let’s face it, while 2018 was a wave, there’s a chance 2020 may be a tsunami. In addition, she raised close to $11 million in Q3, more than most 2020 presidential candidates. Moscow’s numbers for Q3 aren’t out yet, but he had about $7 million CoH at the end of Q2, so she might have bested him.

Mitch didn’t get where he is without being able to read polls, and the constant uptick in voters favoring impeachment has got to be giving him the willies. While there is a dearth of state-by-state numbers, the numbers in favor of the inquiry rise daily, including among Republicans, Evangelicals and white men without college degrees — and that’s not just the Orange Menace’s base, it’s Mitch’s too.

Jeff Flake has said that if there were an impeachment vote in the Senate that was secret, 30 – 35 Republicans would vote to oust General Bone Spurs. But secret isn’t going to cut it, and Moscow Mitch knows that. Thus, he’s keeping his options open. Because his calculus is whether he can, first, keep his seat, and second, hold the Senate in 2020. And those are his only concerns. (No, sorry, folks, he doesn’t actually care about law or history.)

So what is Mitch looking at? First: there are 15 current Republican Senators who has “expressed concern” at various levels of alarm. They are: Alexander, Blunt, Burr, Collins, Crapo, Ernst, Gardner, Grassley, Murkowsky, Portman, Romney, Rubio, Sasse, Thune, and surprisingly, Toomey. Some of these are up for re-election in 2020, so the polls are everything to them. Sasse and Romney might actually be concerned on a moral basis. Ernst has gotten huge blow-back for not being pro-impeachment enough, and that’s on tape. Grassley has other problems with Trump. But let’s assume that these 15 will actually go all in and vote for removal at trial. My logic on that is that the sole reason that an elected Republican won’t cross Trump is because of his/her fear of retribution leading either to a primary challenge from the right, or actual physical harm. However, that changes if poll numbers indicate that they’re backing the wrong horse. When you dig into the polling numbers on impeachment,  a majority of people are all in for the idea of an inquiry. They are less convinced about actual conviction. That will change as they see more information. When you read the comments of these 15, not one of them (or any elected Republican) has said that there is anything demonstrably false in any of the charges. The facts are not at issue. They, and much of the general population, is just waiting for a little more “proof”. And trust me, it’s coming.

Okay, we’re still 5 short. But they are actually “getable”.

First, McSally and Tillis – who are up for re-election next year in Arizona and North Carolina, respectively. While McSally is far more endangered than Tillis, and has a top tier opposing candidate, they both will suffer if their states show serious signs of turning blue next year. Then there are Enzi, Isakson and Roberts. Pat and Mike have announced that they won’t be running for re-election, and Johnny is gone in December due to his health. Thus, no chance of blow back that can hurt them in the future.

So that could conceivably get us to 20, and an end to the disaster that is the Angry Creamsicle and his minions. But let’s not forget Lindsey Graham. He is furious about Syria (face it, it’s the one thing we ALL agree on) and he’s got some problems with the prank call he fell for in August, where he appeared to be on the side of Turkey relative to the Kurds. He’s got some ‘splaining to do. Lindsey is up for re-election next year and has a very strong challenger in Jaime Harrison. South Carolina is ruby red, but if any of the unfounded rumors about Lindsey are true, that could change. It’s all running around the hamster wheel in his head, I’m sure.

I have no doubt that Trump will be impeached unless he resigns first. As for the Senate trial, if the evidence is irrefutable, and that is reflected in the polls, it will be August 1974 again, and Moscow Mitch, Lindsey Graham, and a few others will make the short drive to the White House and say that they just don’t have the votes to save him. The question for him then will be whether to resign or be the first impeached US President to leave office after conviction in the Senate. Trumpkin wants a Nobel Peace Prize, a second term, and  to stay in office long enough to make the statute of limitations run out on all his crimes. His dreams will not be coming true.