The off-year general elections kicked off yesterday with the “jungle primary” in Louisiana.  Louisiana’s jungle primary is similar to, but not quite the same as, the “top two” primaries that California and Washington use.  Like the top two primary, a jungle primary is “semi-partisan.”  By semi-partisan, I mean that, like a non-partisan election, all candidates run in the same election regardless of party but, unlike the typical non-partisan election, candidates are identified by their designated party.  Thus, you could have three Democrats, four Republicans, a Libertarian, a Green, and an independent on the ballot.  A jungle primary differs from a top two primary in that a jungle primary is actually a general election with the possibility of a run-off rather than a true primary.  In other words, in a true top two primary, the top two candidates advance to the general election even if one of the candidates gets a majority of the vote in the primary.  In a jungle primary, if one candidate gets a majority of the vote, that candidate is elected.

Thanks, in part, to the scandals surrounding former Senator David Vitter, Louisiana has a Democratic governor.  And Governor Edwards has done a decent job of threading the needle in a red state.  (Of course, threading the needle in a red state means conceding certain issues that you can’t win in order to win on some issues even though such concessions may aggravate those who believe in purity and attack any person who deviates as a DINO.)  Heading into yesterday’s election, the two questions was whether Governor Edwards could reach 50% and which Republican would take second (a more traditional Republican legislator or a self-funding Trumpish candidate).  With the unofficial results in, Governor Edwards fell just short of 50% getting 47% of he vote, and Eddie Risponse (the self-funding candidate) eked out second place by a 27% to 24% margin.  So there will be a run-off for governor in mid-November.  The real issue for the run-off is how much the national parties will put into the race.  For Risponse to win, he needs to absolutely unify those who voted for the three Republican candidates (the third Republican got less than one percent of the vote).  While the Republicans would like to win this race given how red Louisiana is, it will have little impact going forward.  After the first round of voting, the Republicans are guaranteed to win at least 26 of the state senate races (out of 39) and at least 63 of the 105 state house races.  And, even if Democrats can get enough seats in the state house to block a veto override, there is very little chance that there will be any significant impact on congressional district lines in 2021 given the geography of Louisiana and the Voting Rights Act.

It would probably benefit the Democrats if the Republicans did put money into Louisiana.  There are two other governor’s races in November — Kentucky and Mississippi.  While both states are red, the Democrats do have chances in both.  Mississippi may be a step too far given Mississippi’s Jim Crow era law that requires a candidate to win not only the state-wide popular vote but also win the popular vote in the majority of the state house districts.  So even if the Democrat manages to win the popular vote, the election would probably go to the state legislature barring a landslide win.  In both states, it is unlikely that Democrats will win the state legislatures and, in any case, it is hard seeing how the congressional district lines in either state could be substantially altered in a way that would create a significant chance of electing a second Democrat to congress in either state (although in a wave year, there is the possibility of that happening in Kentucky) as the least Republican district currently held by Republicans in both states is more Republican than the sole Democratic district is Democrat.  In other words, there are not enough extra Democrats in the Democratic district to swing a single Republican seats even if the two districts adjoined.

The most important elections this fall, however, are the legislative election in Virginia.  After 2017, the state house and state senate are both close to switching from Republican control to Democratic control.  The state house is currently 52 to 48 and the state senate is 20 to 19 with one vacancy.  So it is entirely possible that the Democrats could gain control of both houses.  Given that Democrats just won control of the congressional delegation in 2018 (overcoming a very lopsided gerrymander to do so) and that Virginia might gain another seat in 2020, having control of both houses — even by narrow margins — would allow the drawing of a much fairer map.  Of the states with elections next month, Virginia is probably the only state in which the elections could significantly alter the congressional district lines that will be drawn in 2021.

New Jersey completes the list of states that hold elections during the “off-year.”  Unlike Virginia in which control of both houses of the legislature will be hotly contested, Democrats should maintain control in New Jersey.