In tracking the numbers of the epidemic, there is some good news flying under the radar. While the number of infections is increasing, and could potentially increase exponentially in the next couple weeks, the number of recovered patients, and the rate of increase of recovery is much quicker than the increase in the number of patient deaths.

These numbers are order of magnitude, since they change at least hourly. But in a broad stroke, the number of worldwide infections went up from about 15,000 on Sunday to about 20,000 on Tuesday (ET, China is a day ahead) with 13% in serious condition.  Deaths over the same period increased from about 360 to 425 (20% increase), while recoveries increased from about 450 to about 725 (60% increase).

This, combined with the number of infections outside of China that are mild or asymptomatic lead to two conclusions: yes, it’s spreading and community based transmission is likely, BUT it’s likely that it will end up with a mortality rate of under 0.5%. In simple terms, this means while the probability of infection is increasing, the chances of the disease being survivable and potentially mild is also increasing.