Now that Nevada is over, we have a one-week break until South Carolina.  After South Carolina, the pace increases with multiple states per week holding contests (March 3, March 10, March 14, and March 17).  The next time that we have a break of this length will be between the multi-state contests on March 17 and Georgia on March 24.  In the seventeen days between South Carolina and March 17, over half of the national convention delegates will be allocated.  In short, the pace is about to pick up quickly.  South Carolina is also the last state in which Michael Bloomberg will not be on the ballot.

Additionally, as things stand now, assuming that nobody drops out as a result of Nevada, Vice-President Biden and Tom Steyer have both invested heavily in South Carolina as the state where they make their stand.  Additionally, while Nevada was the first state in which both African-Americans and Latinos each have more than 10% of the likely primary votes, South Carolina is the first primary that is likely to be majority-minority.  At least through New Hampshire, the newer candidates have had trouble getting much support from African-American voters in South Carolina according to the polls. If this does not change, the results in South Carolina may differ dramatically from the results in Iowa and New Hampshire.

One other complicating factor in South Carolina is the fact that the Republicans have cancelled their primary.  South Carolina is an open primary state and voters have the option to choose which party’s primary they wish to vote in.  With no Republican primary, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are free to vote in the Democratic Primary.    When we get the exit polls, we will have a good idea of whether a significant number of Republicans opted to vote in the Democratic Primary.  We may never know whether they opted to participate because they are tired of the would-be-dictator-in-chief and want to find an acceptable alternative or because they belong to the Church of Trump and want to eliminate the candidates most likely to beat Trump.

Finally, as will be the case in many of the other states to follow, absentee voting began in South Carolina some time ago.  Undoubtedly, some of these votes will be cast for candidates who are no longer running.  And the results from the absentee vote may not reflect more recent developments in the campaign (which can be very significant in a primary when voters are making fine distinctions between similar candidates).   (At the time that this post is going live, less than eighteen hours have passed since the end of the precinct caucuses in Nevada.  There are some candidates that theoretically could drop out after Nevada, but — as noted above — I think that there really isn’t a candidate that is going to drop out because they failed to win delegates or performed poorly in Nevada.)

As in other primary states, the basic plan for South Carolina is that there is one pool of delegates for each of the state’s eight congressional districts allocated based on the results in that district and two pools of delegates (the pledged party leader delegates and the at-large delegates) allocated based on the state-level results.  As in all states, a candidate needs to get 15% in the specific jurisdiction (state-wide or individual district) to win delegates.  And, as in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, the number of candidates still running (assuming that we do not see candidates withdrawing after Nevada which I am suspecting will not happen as nobody seems to be treating Nevada as their last stand) creates the possibility that more than two candidates will reach 15%.  For this reason, while the default math is that .5 rounds up and under .5 rounds down, the reality is that it is the highest remainders that round up until all delegate slots are filled.  Additionally, and the particular impact will be discussed in the math for individual pools, all candidates who reach 15% get delegates before extra delegates are allocated.  In some districts, there might be/will be more candidates reaching 15% than there are delegates available.

At the congressional district level, the number of available delegates range from three delegates to eight delegates.  For the smaller districts, we will need to borrow a concept from the Irish elections a couple weeks back and discuss the concept of a quota.  If you divide 100% of the vote by the total number of delegates plus one (i.e. for a three delegate district, you would divide 100% by four), you get the percent that assures that you will be one of the candidates that gets a delegate.  In other words, it is impossible for you not to finish in the top X when X is the number of delegates available if you reach a quota.  There may be additional candidates that reach 15%, but you will be ahead of them for that last delegate.  Since 15% is the normal threshold, quotas only come into play if a district has five or fewer delegates (as the quota for five delegates is approximately 16.67% but the quota for six delegates is approximately 14.3%).

Looking at the district, the Third District has three delegates; the Second and Fourth District have four delegates; the Fifth and Seventh District have five delegates; the First District has six delegates; and the Sixth District has eight delegates.  Starting with the Third District, the key issue will be how many candidates get to 15%.  If three or more candidates get to 15%, the top three will get one delegate each (with 25% needed to assure a top three finish).  If only two candidates get to 15%, the top candidate gets two delegates and the other candidate gets one delegate.  To assure that there are only two candidates that get 15%, the top candidate has to get more than 70% of the vote.  And to assure that one candidate gets all three delegates, that candidate has to get to 85%.  (Of course with this many candidates running, the likelihood that some of the other candidates will get 2-5% of the vote probably lowers those two numbers.  To be mathematically certain, however, it takes 70% and 85%.)

For the Second and Fourth District, if four candidates get to 15%, each candidate would get one delegate (with 20% needed to assure a top four finish).  To assure a second delegate, a candidate needs to get to 55% (which would assure that only three candidates get to 15%).   Similarly, to get to three delegates, a candidate would need to get to 70% (which would assure only two viable candidates).  And as always, to sweep the delegates, it takes 85%.

For the Fifth and Seventh District, if five or more candidates get to 15%, the top five will get one delegate each (with, as noted above, 16.67% needed to assure a top five finish).  To get two delegates, a candidate will need to get to 40%.  To get to three delegates, a candidate will need 55%.  To get to four delegates, a candidate will need 70%.  And 85% will sweep the delegates.

For the First District, it will take 15% to get one delegate.  If a candidate gets over 27.5%, that candidate will get two delegates.  If a candidate gets over 42.5%, that candidate will get three delegates.  If a candidate gets over 59.2%, they will get four delegates.  If a candidate gets over 75%, they will get five delegates.  Finally, if a candidate gets 85%, they will get all six delegates.

For the Sixth District, there are enough delegates that we get into heavy fractional comparisons.  Once the race narrows to two or three candidates, the numbers will become easier to calculate.  But for now the possibility you could have the third and/or fourth and/or fifth placed candidate getting between 15% and 20% complicates the math.  By my best guess, it will take 21.5% % of the vote to clinch a second delegate.  (That number guarantees a top four finish and eliminates the fifth-placed candidate from viability.)  It will take about 34.5% to clinch a third delegate.  It will take around 46% to clinch a fourth delegate.  It will take around 58.5% to clinch a fifth delegate.  It will take around 68.75% to clinch a sixth delegate.  It will take around 81.25% to clinch a seventh delegate.  It will take 85% to get all eight delegates.

For the pledged party leader delegates, the fractional math is what will make things complex.  My best guess is that it takes 25% to clinch a second delegate.  It will take38.5% to clinch a third delegate.  It will take 52.5% to clinch a fourth delegate.  It will take around 64.3% to clinch a fifth delegate.  It will take around 80% to clinch a sixth delegate.  Finally, it will take 85% to clinch a seventh delegate.

Lastly, we get to the at-large delegates.  While not 100% certain as there are some weird breakdowns if six candidate reach 15% and the leader breaks 24% (which is almost impossible but not quite), every candidate who reaches 15% should win two delegates.  For that same reason, it will take 25% to clinch three delegates; 33.34% to clinch four delegates.  My rough guess is that 40% should get a candidate five delegates.  A candidate with 49% should get at least six delegates.  A candidate with over 56% should get seven delegates.  A candidate with over 64% should get eight delegates.  A candidate with 71% should get nine delegates.  A candidate with 79.5% should get ten delegates.  There is no way for a candidate to get just eleven delegates.  If a candidate exceeds 85%, they will get 12 delegates.

I do not expect any candidate to get a majority of the delegates in South Carolina.  We do not yet have enough of a pattern to know whether it is likely that a candidate gets a majority in a single congressional district.  South Carolina will tell us something about how long certain candidates may last.  But it’s such a short time between South Carolina and Super Tuesday that candidates may wait until polls close in California before announcing their intent to suspend their campaigns.  (And the key term there is “suspend.”  Many states have rules that allow reallocation of state-level delegates if candidates are no longer a candidate at the time that state-level delegates are elected.   So candidates that have won delegates tend to suspend their campaigns rather than terminate their campaigns.)