On any election day, 8:00 p.m. EST/7:00 p.m. CST, is a key time when polls close in a significant number of states in the Eastern and Central time zones.  (For the general election, the polls close in seventeen states at that time, the largest single batch of states.)  On Super Tuesday, six states will close their polls at that time:  Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.  As with the states closing earlier that evening, poll closing is not an exact end to the voting.  Instead, all voters still in line at a precinct still get to vote.  Additionally, election workers have to get the ballots from the precinct to a centralized vote counting location.  So there is a lag between the polls closing and the results being reported.  However, this time is when the news media can release exit polls and make projections and counties can report the totals from early votes.

Before going much further into the details, one significant change from earlier reports.  Maine law currently allow parties to opt to use ranked-choice voting for their primaries.  Early drafts of the Maine delegate selection plan indicated that the Maine Democrats would use ranked-choice voting.  Ultimately, the party decided against using ranked-choice voting.  (Apparently, Maine’s law required a party using ranked-choice to continue the process until one candidate got a majority of the vote and did not give the option of using it to determine who met a party’s threshold for delegates).

While Tom Steyer has ended his campaign, we still have five candidates in the race who have won delegates in at least one state.  We also have Michael Bloomberg who has put a lot of money into these states.  So far, we have not had any district (or state-wide) result in which more than four candidates reached 15%, but every one of these six candidates has at least one state or district in which they expect to be viable.  How many are viable in each district will impact the math for the distribution.  (And with early voting/absentee ballots and his ad spending, Tom Steyer could still get a significant number of votes in some locations even if he is not viable.)

Between these six states, there are forty congressional districts ranging from three delegates to ten delegates.   Specifically, Alabama 4 has three delegates.  Alabama 3, Alabama 6, Minnesota 6, Minnesota 7, Oklahoma 2, Oklahoma 3, Tennessee 1, Tennessee 2, Tennessee 3, Tennessee 4, Tennessee 6, and Tennessee 8 have four delegates.  Alabama 1, Alabama 2, Alabama 5, Minnesota 1, Minnesota 8, Oklahoma 1, Oklahoma 4, and Tennessee 7 have five delegates.  Massachusetts 1, Massachusetts 2, Massachusetts 3, Massachusetts 4, Massachusetts 6, Massachusetts 9, Minnesota 2, Oklahoma 5, and Tennessee 5 have six delegates.  Maine 2, Massachusetts 8, Minnesota 3, and Tennessee 9 have seven delegates.  Alabama 7, Massachusetts 5, Massachusetts 7, and Minnesota 4 have eight delegates.  Maine 1 has nine delegates.  Minnesota 5 has ten delegates.

Alabama has seven party leader delegates and eleven at-large delegates.  Maine has three party leader delegates and five at-large delegates.  Massachusetts has twelve party leader delegates and twenty at-large delegates.  Minnesota has ten party leader delegates and sixteen at-large delegates.  Oklahoma has five party leader delegates and eight at-large delegates.   Tennessee has eight party leader and fourteen at large delegates.

Starting with the three delegate pools (Alabama 4 and Maine party leader delegates), the main question is how many candidates reach 15%.  If three or more reach 15%, the top three candidates get one delegate each (requires 25% to be sure of a top three finish).  If only two candidates to 15%, the top candidate gets two delegates and the second-placed candidate gets one delegate.  (It takes 70% to assure a candidate of two delegates.)   In Maine, the option to not use ranked-choice voting increases the chance of a 2-1 split.   With ranked-choice voting, a candidate with 14% almost certainly would have gotten enough votes from lower-ranked candidates to pass the 15% threshold.

For the four delegate districts (Alabama 3, Alabama 6, Minnesota 6, Minnesota 7, Oklahoma 2, Oklahoma 3, Tennessee 1, Tennessee 2, Tennessee 3, Tennessee 4, Tennessee 6, and Tennessee 8), there again is the possibility that four or more candidates will reach 15%.  It takes 20% of the vote to guarantee a top four finish and a delegate.  It will take 55% (assuring that only three candidates reach 15%) to assure a second delegate and 70% (assuring that only two candidates reach 15%) to assure a third delegate.

Through Nevada, there have been districts (and states) in which four candidates reached the 15% threshold, but so far no pool in which five or more candidates have reached 15%.  But as long as you have eight candidates running, it is mathematically possible even if highly unlikely.

For the five delegate pools (Alabama 1, Alabama 2, Alabama 5, Minnesota 1, Minnesota 8, Oklahoma 1, Oklahoma 4, Tennessee 7, Maine at-large, and Oklahoma party leader), again there is the possibility that there could be more viable candidates than delegates.  If that happens, the top five candidates get one delegate each.  It will take 40% for a candidate to be assured of a second delegate, 55% for a candidate to be assured of a third delegate, and 70% for a candidate to be assured of a fourth delegate.

For the six delegate pools (Massachusetts 1, Massachusetts 2, Massachusetts 3, Massachusetts 4, Massachusetts 6, Massachusetts 9, Minnesota 2, Oklahoma 5, and Tennessee 5), it is not possible for the number of viable candidates to exceed the number of delegates.  So everyone who gets 15% is guaranteed to get a delegate.  It takes 29% to guarantee a second delegate (either 1st with 5 viable candidates, 2nd with four viable candidates, or assure rounding up with only three viable candidates).  It takes 46% to guarantee three delegates.  It takes 60% to guarantee four delegates.  It takes 75% to guarantee five delegates.

For the seven delegate pools (Maine 2, Massachusetts 8, Minnesota 3, Tennessee 9, and Alabama party leaders), there will be more delegates than viable candidates.; so whomever finishes first in the relevant count will get a second delegate.  It will take 25% to guarantee a second delegate.  It will take around 36% to guarantee a third delegate; 50% to guarantee a fourth delegate; 65% to guarantee a fifth delegate; and 79% to guarantee a sixth delegate.

For the eight delegate pools (Alabama 7, Massachusetts 5, Massachusetts 7, Minnesota 4, Oklahoma at-large, and Tennessee party leader), it will take approximately 22% to guarantee two delegates.  It should take around 33% to guarantee three delegates.  It should take around 46% to guarantee four delegates.  It should take around 60% to guarantee five delegates.  It should take around 68% to guarantee six delegates.  It should take around 82% to guarantee seven delegates.

For the nine delegate district (Maine 1), each delegate is equivalent to around 11.1% of the vote.  It will take around 18.5% to guarantee a second delegate.  It will take around 29% to guarantee a third delegate.  It will take around 41% to guarantee a fourth delegate.  It will take around 53% to guarantee a fifth delegate.  It will take around 62% to guarantee a sixth delegate.  It will take around 73% to guarantee a seventh delegate.  It will take around 84% to get a seventh delegate.

For the ten delegate pools (Minnesota 5 and Minnesota party leader), being viable almost, but does not quite, guarantees two delegates.  It will take 18% to guarantee a second delegate.  It will take around 28% to guarantee a third delegate.  (A key complicating factor is the number of viable candidates.  In a two-candidate race, the breaks would be at the 5s.  With multiple candidate, the number is higher due to the need to assure a relatively high fraction among three or four candidates).  It will take 37% to guarantee four delegates.  It will take 47% to guarantee five delegates.  It will take 57% to guarantee six delegates.  It will take 67% to guarantee seven delegates.  It will take 75% to guarantee eight delegates.  It is impossible to win just nine delegates as any candidate who exceeds 85% will get ten delegates.

For the eleven delegate pool (Alabama at-large), each delegate is roughly equivalent to 9.1% of the vote.  As such, any candidate who is viable should be very close to getting a second delegate.  It will take 17% to be sure of a second delegate.  It will take around 26% to guarantee a third delegate.  It will take around 34% to guarantee a fourth delegate.  It will take around 43% to guarantee a fifth delegate.  It will take around 53% to guarantee a sixth delegate.  It will take around 60% to guarantee a seventh delegate.  It will take around 69% to guarantee an eighth delegate.  It will take around 78% to guarantee a ninth delegate.  It is impossible to win just ten delegates.

For the twelve delegate pool (Massachusetts party leader delegates), the likelihood is that any candidate who gets 15% will get two delegates.  (One delegate is 8.34%, a candidate with 15% would be at 1.8 delegates)There is a narrow mathematical path in which a candidate with 15% would get only one delegate, but that requires a very precise break down of the vote.  To guarantee three delegates, a candidate would need approximately 23.5% of the vote.  A candidate with 31% should get at least four delegates.  A candidate with 40% should get at least 5 delegates.  A candidate with 46% should get at least 6 delegates.  A candidate with 56% should get at least 7 delegates.   A candidate with 64% should get at least 8 delegates.  A candidate with 71% should get at least 9 delegates.  A candidate with 80% should get at least 10 delegates.  It is impossible to win just 11 delegates.

For the remaining delegate pools (as in Virginia and North Carolina in the previous part), the delegate percentages keep on getting smaller.  For Tennessee’s 14 at-large delegates, each delegate is equal to about 7.3% which means that any candidate who gets 15% will get at least two delegates.  For Minnesota’s sixteen at large delegates, each delegate is equal to about 6.25%,  Any candidate who is viable will get at  least two delegates and will probably get three delegates.  Finally, for Massachusetts twenty at large delegates, each delegate is equal to 5%.  Any viable candidate will get at least three delegates.

Two of the states in this pool — Minnesota and Massachusetts — are, respectively, the home states of Senator Kobluchar and Senator Warren.  It’s hard seeing a path forward for these two candidates if they do not carry their home states.   That doesn’t mean that there isn’t one, but it’s hard to think of a scenario in which something happens that causes them to surge in every state but their home states.

These six states (plus the three states closing earlier) are going to be the story of the early coverage.  All the candidates want to be clear winners in the as many of these states as possible.  However, if these races are close, and several of the trailing candidates are getting to the 15% threshold, it would be the political equivalent of the groundhog seeing his shadow.  A candidate who reaches 15% in the majority of the early states and districts will win close to 100 delegates from these 10 contests.  And if nobody is clearly taking a solid plurality of these delegates, everybody will have reasons to stay in the race.