Aside from the big two states (California and Texas), there are three states that will close their polls after 7:00 p.m. CST — Arkansas, Colorado, Utah.   Arkansas and Utah are small red states.  Colorado is a medium-size purple-blue state.  Between these three states, there are fifteen congressional districts with between two and nine delegates each.

A basic reminder, the rules of the Democratic Party requires each state to have district level delegates (roughly 65% of the state’s total), at-large delegates (roughly 22% of the state’s total), and party leader delegates (roughly 12% of the state’s total).  The district level delegates are split between the districts (usually congressional districts) in the state typically based on votes in past elections.  Each of the pools of delegate (each district is a separate pool) is based on the results in the area covered by the pool (the individual district for a district-level delegates and the state-wide results for the at-large and party-leader pools).  It usually takes 15% of the vote for a candidate to be viable.  And the delegates are allocated proportionately based on the percentage of the qualified vote (the total vote for all viable candidates) that each candidate receives.  The percentages below assume that only viable candidates receive votes,  As the early states have shown, with this many candidates, a significant portion of the vote will go to non-viable candidates.  As such, it is likely that candidates will earn additional delegates despite not reaching the target numbers described below.  Covering all possible situations (number of viable candidates, percentage of vote that goes to the viable candidates, etc.) would, however, lengthen these posts by a significant amount.  As long as we still have seven candidates qualifying for the debate stage and potentially qualifying for delegates in a district, we will have to go with this oversimplified calculation.

With Mayor Pete Buttigieg deciding on Sunday to join Tom Steyer on the sidelines, we are down to six major candidates, four of whom have won delegates in prior contests and two of whom have not.  One of those two, however, is Mayor Michael Bloomberg who is almost certain to win delegates.  So in most districts, we are probably looking at somewhere between two and five viable candidates.

Looking at the individual districts, Utah 1 has two delegates.  Arkansas 1, Colorado 5, and Utah 3 have four delegates.  Arkansas 3, Arkansas 4, Colorado 3, and Colorado 4 have five delegates,   Arkansas 2, Colorado 6, Colorado 7, and Utah 2 have six delegates,   Utah 4 has seven delegates.  Colorado 1 and Colorado 2 have nine delegates.

Arkansas has four party leader delegates and seven at-large delegates.  Colorado has nine party leader delegates and fourteen at-large delegates.  Utah has four party leader delegates and six at-large delegates.

For Utah 1, with only two delegates, it is likely that the top two candidates will win one delegate each.  It will take 33.5% to guarantee finishing in the top two.

For the four-delegate pools (Arkansas 2, Colorado 5, Utah 3, Arkansas party leader delegates, Utah party-leader delegates), there is the possibility that more than four candidates will be viable.  If more than four candidates are viable, the top four will win delegates.  As a result, it will take 55% to be certain of winning two delegates (assuring no more than three viable candidates).  It will take 70% to win three delegates (assuring no more than two viable candidates).

For the five-delegate pools (Arkansas 3, Arkansas 4, Colorado 3, and Colorado 4), there is the theoretical possibility that you could have five or more viable candidates.  While theoretically possible, through Nevada, no pool has had more than four viable candidates.    To assure that there are only four viable candidates, the leading candidate will need 40% (which would get that candidate a second delegate).  If you assume some votes for lesser candidates, it will take 35% to guarantee getting a second delegate (by assuring either only three viable candidates or being the top candidate with four viable  candidates.  It will take 55% to guarantee three delegates and 70% to guarantee four delegates.

For the six delegates pools (Arkansas 2, Colorado 6, Colorado 7, Utah 2, and Utah at-large), all viable candidates are guaranteed a delegate.  As a result, it takes 29% to guarantee a second delegate (either top candidate with five viable candidates or top two with four viable candidates or top three with three viable candidates).   It takes 50% to guarantee a third delegate.  It takes 64% to guarantee a fourth delegate.  It takes 75% to guarantee a fifth delegate.

For the seven-delegates pools (Utah 4 and Arkansas at-large), all viable candidates will receive at least one delegate and the leading candidate is assured a second delegate.  Each delegate is roughly equivalent to 14.3% of the vote.  It will take 25% to guarantee a second delegate.  It will take roughly 39% to guarantee a third delegate (either first in a 3-2-2 split or second in a 3-3-1 or 4-3 split).  It will take roughly 53% to get four delegates.  It will take roughly 65% to guarantee getting five delegates.  Finally, it will take roughly 79% to guarantee getting six delegates.

For the nine-delegate pools (Colorado 1, Colorado 2, and Colorado party leader), each delegate is equivalent to roughly 11.1% of the vote.  It should take 20% to guarantee a second delegate.  It should take around 29% to guarantee three delegates.  It should take around 42% to guarantee four delegates.  It should take around 52% to guarantee five delegates.  It should take around 63% to guarantee six delegates.  It should take 72% to guarantee seven delegates.  It should take around 83% to guarantee eight delegates.

Finally, there is the fourteen delegate pool (Colorado at-large).  Each delegate is equivalent to about 7.15% of the vote.  So any candidate that is viable will get at least two delegates.  Any candidate who gets 20% should get at least three delegates. It should take around 27% to get four delegates.  It should take around 34% to get five delegates.  It should take around 40% to get six delegates.  It should take around 48% to get seven delegates.  It should take around 56% to get eight delegates.   It should take around 61% to get nine delegates.  It should take 66% to get ten delegates.  It should take around 75% to get eleven delegates.  Finally, it will take around 83% to assure a candidate of twelve delegates.

The bottom line in all of the states on Super Tuesday is that it matters how many candidates reach 15% and how many votes the candidates who fail to reach 15% get.  As we saw in Nevada and South Carolina, if two or three candidates get around 10% of the vote each, a candidate will get a majority of the delegates with approximately 40% of the vote.  If the winning candidate is only getting 30% and you have two or three other candidates getting delegates, than the winning candidate only picks up a handful of delegates on the other leading candidates.  Since it takes 50% of the delegates to get the nomination, whether we have a result like Iowa and New Hampshire or have a result like Nevada and South Carolina will play a significant role in what happens after Super Tuesday.