There is just a little bit of room between Super Tuesday and March 10 for everyone to catch their breath.  Over the past seven days, over half of the candidates have dropped out, and we are left with three candidates (Joe Biden, Tulsi Gabbard, and Bernie Sanders.)

While we are down to three candidates, one word of warning is appropriate.  As we saw on Super Tuesday, some states have no excuse early voting or mail-in ballots.  On Super Tuesday, we saw some significant differences between the early vote count and the “election day” count.  Simply put, people who voted early may have voted for a candidate who was no longer actively running.  It is unclear if any of these candidates will ultimately win a delegate, but some of these candidates did get a significant number of votes in some states.  The extra seven days should lessen this effect, but there could be — depending on the state — a significant number of voters who voted before February 28th, and some of these voters went with one of the five candidates who are no longer running.

There are seven contests which will conclude on March 10.  (I use the term conclude because one of them — Democrats Abroad — is a party-run primary in which the polls are open for almost one week and others allow early voting.)  Besides Democrats Abroad, the other six contests are Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Washington.  While nominally styled as a caucus, North Dakota is a party-run primary.  Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, and Washington are state-run primaries.  (Washington like California relies heavily on mail-in ballots which can cause a delay in getting final results.)  Under the rules of the Democratic Party, all of these contests are binding and delegates will be allocated based on the votes cast for each candidate.

While Democrats Abroad will elect one party leader delegate and twelve at-large delegates, all thirteen delegates are allocated as one pool.  North Dakota only has one congressional district, so all delegates will be allocated based on the state-wide results, but as three separate pools — nine district-level delegates, two party-leader delegates, and three at-large delegates.  The remaining four states have multiple congressional districts — two in Idaho,  in fourteen in Michigan, four in Mississippi, eight in Missouri, and ten in Washington.   These thirty-eight districts have between three and eleven delegates each.

Specifically, Washington 4 has three delegates.  Michigan 4, Michigan 10, Mississippi 4, Missouri 8, and Washington 5 have four delegates each. Michigan 1, Michigan 2, Michigan 3, Michigan 6, Michigan 7, Mississippi 1, Mississippi 3, Missouri 3, Missouri 4, Missouri 6, Missouri 7, Washington 3, Washington 8, and Washington 10 have five delegates each.  Idaho 1, Michigan 5, Michigan 8, Missouri 2, Missouri 5, Washington 1, Washington 2, and Washington 6 have six delegates each.  Idaho 7, Michigan 9, Michigan 11, Michigan 12, Michigan 13, and Washington 9 have seven delegates each.   Missouri 1 has eight delegates.  Michigan 14 and Mississippi 2 have nine delegates each.  Finally, Washington 7 has eleven delegates.

Idaho has three party leader delegates and four at-large delegates.  Michigan has sixteen party leader delegates and twenty-seven at-large delegates.  Mississippi has five party-leader and eight at-large delegates.  Missouri has nine party leader delegates and fifteen at-large delegates.  Washington has twelve party leader delegates and nineteen at-large delegates.

As noted for previous contests, the math in the two-delegate pool (North Dakota party leader delegates) and three-delegate pools (Washington 4, Idaho party leader delegates, and North Dakota at-large delegates), the math is simple.  For the two-delegate pools, the top two candidates should each get one delegate unless only one candidate is viable.  For the three-delegate pools, if three candidates are viable, each will get one delegate.  If two candidates are viable, the leading candidate gets two delegates and the other candidate gets one delegate.

For the remaining districts, the key issue is whether we have two or three viable candidates in that district.  The key considerations for each of these pools is that any candidate who reaches 15% will get at least one delegate; and candidates are guaranteed of rounding up if they have a remainder in excess of .67 (i.e. two-thirds of the vote represented by each delegate).   The following numbers are (except when the numbers exceed 70%) based on the assumption of three viable candidates.  If there are only two viable candidates, it takes a remainder of .50 to round up.

For the four-delegate pools (Michigan 4, Michigan 10, Mississippi 4, Missouri 8, Washington 5, and Idaho at-large delegates), each delegate is worth 25% of the vote.  With no more than three candidates being viable, it will take  43% to assure a second delegate if three candidates are viable (dropping down to 38% if only two candidates are viable.)    Similarly, it takes 70% to assure that only two candidates are viable (and thereby win three delegates), but only 63% to assure three delegates if only two candidates are viable.

For the five-delegate pools (Michigan 1,Michigan 2, Michigan 3, Michigan 6, Michigan 7, Mississippi 1, Mississippi 3, Missouri 3, Missouri 4, Missouri 6, Missouri 7, Washington 3, Washington 8, Washington 10, and Mississippi party leader delegates), each delegate is worth 20%.  It takes 34% to be certain of two delegates.  It  takes 53% to guarantee a third delegate.  Finally, it takes 70% to clinch a fourth delegate (but support for non-viable candidates will probably lower that number).

For the six-delegate pools (Idaho 1, Michigan 5, Michigan 8, Missouri 2, Missouri 5, Washington 1, Washington 2, and Washington 6), each delegate is worth 16.67%.  It will take 27% to assure a candidate of two delegates.  It will take 43% to guarantee a candidate three delegates.  It will take 60% to be certain of four delegates.  Finally, it will takes 75% to clinch a fifth delegate.  (Again, support for non-viable candidates may lower these numbers.)

For the seven-delegate pools (Idaho 7, Michigan 9, Michigan 11, Michigan 12, Michigan 13, and Washington 9), each delegate is worth 14.3%.  It will take 24% to guarantee a second delegate.  It will take 38% to assure a third delegate.  It will take 53% to be certain of a fourth delegate.  It will take 65% to clinch a fifth delegate.  Finally, it will take 79% to win a sixth delegate.

For the eight-delegate pool (Missouri 1 and Mississippi at-large delegates), each delegate is worth 12.5%.  It will take 21% to be certain of two delegates.  It will take 34% to assure a candidate of three delegates.  It will take 46% to guarantee a candidate of four delegates.  It will take 59% for a candidate to clinch five delegates.   It will take 69% to assure a candidate of getting six delegates.  Finally, it will take 82% to guarantee seven delegates.

For the nine-delegate pools (Michigan 14, Mississippi 2, and Missouri party leader delegates), each delegate is worth about 11.12% of the vote.  It will take 19% to clinch two delegates.  It will take around 30% to guarantee three delegates.  It will take around 42% to be certain of four delegates.  It will take around 52% to clinch five delegates.  It will take 63% to guarantee six delegates.  It will take 73 percent to be certain of seven delegates.  It will take 83% to get eight delegates.  (It is almost impossible to get just eight delegates given that some votes are likely to go to non-viable candidates.)

For the eleven-delegate pool (Washington 7), each delegate is worth about 9.1% of the vote.  Given the dwindling number of candidates, it will take around 15.3% to be certain of a second delegate.  (With some votes likely to go to non-viable candidates, any viable candidate will almost certainly take at least two delegates.).  It will take around 25% to clinch a third delegate.  It will take around 34% to assure a fourth delegate.  It takes around 43% to guarantee a fifth delegate.  It takes 52% to clinch a sixth delegate.  It takes around 61% to be guarantee a seventh delegate.  It will take 70% to get an eighth delegate.  It will take 78% to clinch a ninth delegate.  It is not possible for a candidate to get just ten delegates.

For Washington’s twelve party leader delegates, each delegate is worth 8.34% of the vote.  Any viable candidate will get two delegates.  It takes 22% to be certain of getting three delegates.  It takes 31% to be guaranteed of four delegates.  It takes around 40% to be assured of five delegates.  It takes around 48% to clinch six delegates.  It takes around 56% to get seven delegates.  It takes 64% to guarantee eight delegates.  It takes 72% to clinch nine delegates.  It takes 80% to be certain of ten delegates.

For Democrats Abroad’s thirteen delegates, each delegate is worth about 7.7% of the vote.  Any candidate who gets 15% will get two delegates.  It takes around 21%to be certain of three delegates.  It will take approximately 29% to guarantee four delegates.  It takes around 37% to clinch five delegates.  It takes 45% to assure getting six delegates.  It takes 52% to be certain of seven delegates.  It takes 59% to guarantee eight delegates.  It takes 67% to assure nine delegates.  It takes 74% to clinch ten delegates.  Finally, it takes 81% to get eleven delegates.

As the number of delegates go up, the percent represented by each delegate goes down as does the number needed to get an additional delegate.  Depending on the number of viable candidates, it takes three-fourths of a delegate to be certain of rounding up if there are four viable candidates.  It takes two-thirds of a delegate to be certain of rounding up if there are three viable delegates.  Finally, if there are two viable candidates, the candidate with over one-half of a delegate gets to round up while the other candidate rounds down.  And because the value of a delegate is less than 15%, the requirement that each viable candidate gets at least one delegate no longer has any impact.

For Missouri’s fifteen at-large delegates, each delegate is worth 6.67% (guaranteeing each viable candidate at least two delegates).  For Michigan’s sixteen party leader delegates, each delegate is worth 6.25% (guaranteeing each viable candidate at least two delegates).  For Washington’s nineteen at-large delegates, each delegate is worth about 5.26%.  (guaranteeing each viable candidate at least three delegates).  Finally, for Michigan’s twenty-seven at-large delegates, each delegate is worth about 3.7% (assuring each viable candidate of at least four delegates).

There are 365 delegates in total available on March 10.  Any candidate who is consistently getting 20% or more in every state is likely to get at least 68 delegates (and probably something closer to 80 or 90).  While that type of number is not enough to win any candidate the nomination, it is enough to make it difficult for any other candidate to win the nomination as long as more than two candidates are winning delegates.   (We saw a little something of this on Super Tuesday.  The candidates who finished in third-place or lower are currently estimated at around 130 delegates and that was with missing 15% in several states.)    So a key question for the Tuesday after Super Tuesday is whether we are down to two candidates winning delegates or if there are still enough voters who want a third choice,

EDIT:  Given the number of states voting, a good chunk of this post was written before Mayor Bloomberg and Senator Warren dropped out.  While I managed to update some of the paragraphs to reflect the reduction to three candidates, I did not make any significant adjustments to the final paragraph.  There are still three candidates in the race, and there is a chance that a third candidate picks up delegates on Tuesday.  However, given past performance,  the bigger question may be whether one of the top two candidates takes a significant lead in the delegate count.