Dear Uncle Joe –

First, congratulations on winning South Carolina.

Sadly, HOW you won exposes the inherent weakness of your candidacy and how you can lose in November. Then again, knowledge is power and if you pay attention, you may yet be able to win in November, which is all any of us non-cult people care about.

You won South Carolina, Uncle Joe, NOT because you were there a lot more than the other candidates. You weren’t. You were there the same 20+ days as almost everyone else. You didn’t spend a lot of money – in fact, since you’ve been anemic at raising money, especially from regular grassroots humans, your Super PAC spend a scunch more than your campaign did – both spending slightly under $900,000. Your poll numbers kept dropping over time. BUT Jim Clyburn rolled out an endorsement 3 days before the vote. That is the sole reason that you won. And let’s be honest, you won a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in the General since Carter in 1976, before that Kennedy in 1960. And as an aside, let’s not forget that Strom Thurmond won the state with 72% of the vote in 1948. I point that out because he was the Democratic governor of South Carolina right up until he decided to run for president on the Dixiecrat ticket supporting segregation.

Don’t get me wrong – I love Jim Clyburn. He’s a good man and has worked hard to change things both in South Carolina and nationwide. But let’s be honest. Had he endorsed you in the fall of 2019, we could have saved the party a lot of horror and discord that has been the recent scrum presidential campaign. His late endorsement assured your blowout win because this cycle is unique, and he is one of the few kingmaking endorsers who exist. Prior to Clyburn, you had already nailed down 73 Superdelegate endorsements and none had this impact. As an aside, that’s 74 endorsements of 771 total Superdelegates, with 557 left to endorse. And let’s not forget the 49 who pledged to 10 candidates who have already dropped out, the lion’s share accorded to Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, who would have stood a chance had you not gotten into the race in the first place, but I digress. The number is, however, important, because it’s looking less and less likely that the nomination will be a done deal on the first ballot.

We’re going on to Super Tuesday, and the pundits say that you’ve got a good shot in a number of states, and that you’ll pick up delegates. And we’re going to talk delegates, because that’s actually all that matters in winning the Democratic nomination. It’s NOT all that matters in winning the General Election, but we’ll burn that bridge when we come to it. A large percentage of the votes have already been banked, and it’s not looking great for you in California. Will you clear the bar? Maybe. But maybe not. You, along with Mike, Elizabeth, Pete and Amy may pick up a CD here or there, but … Bernie has run a campaign antithetical to yours: grassroots supporters, grassroots money, no bundled money, and actual outreach to disparate groups of voters. He may not get the California blowout you received in South Carolina, but there are nine times as many delegates (415 to 54) there. And Texas should be interesting. You’ll need to best Mike in places like Arkansas and Oklahoma and you’ve got 48 hours…. The Bernie juggernaut may well best Amy and Elizabeth in their home states, and it looks like he has a 99% shot at 100% of the delegates in his home state.

I bring this up because while you have Joe-mentum, you need to use that good will wisely. You need to reach actual voters, and get money from actual small dollar contributors, and you really need to have a talk with Mike about leveraging his data and ground operations because you don’t have any and he may or may not give you his in time.

Because what my gut says is that IF you are able to clear the field of everyone but Bernie, you will walk into Milwaukee with fewer delegates than Bernie but neither of you will have enough to hit 1,991. And then, if you win on Superdelegates, you will have offended the tens of millions of voters and contributors who put heart and soul into Bernie’s campaign.  And you’ll need to think about how to get young people, people of color, disenfranchised voters, the white working class and the rest of Bernie’s movement to give up everything they have fought for to align behind you. You’ll need the women who are all in for Amy and Elizabeth and cannot believe that another 70+ year old white guy would do a better job than a woman. You’ll need the swath of the party that believes Mike would be a better choice, and the swath of “Never-Mike” who will hate that you’re using his infrastructure. Small needle to thread, Uncle Joe.

You’ll need a veep candidate who…. oh, never mind…. the answer is Stacey Abrams. Just take that as gospel.

And then you’ll need to face the Orange Menace. On the debate stage. On social media. And you can bet that Brad Parscal will expose things about you that you’ve forgotten, along with the tome of lies of which we’re all already cognizant.

Hard road, Joe.

But still, you’re the flavor of the day, and you’ve tried this multiple times over the last 32 years. So good luck! I mean that honestly, because a piece of chewed gum on the bottom of a shoe that has stepped in dog poop is better than what is currently occupying the White House. But while you have a shot at the nomination, PLEASE do things now that will work towards your election in November if indeed you garner the nomination.

Move left (people love MFA). See if you can find a way to appeal to people under the age of 50, and those of us who are older but are currently supporting other candidates. Avoid the mistakes of 2016 – take advice! Listen outside your bubble! Have a farm program. Get your educational program for pre-K from Michael Bennet. Get your environmental platform from Jay Inslee. Get your kumbaya from Cory Booker. And on and on…. most of the dropped candidates truly did have something to offer. Above all, quit pointing out that you were Barack Obama’s vice president. We know. And it’s not enough.

And wash your hands, and mention that to everyone at every rally – because to get to November, all of us need to survive Covid-19.