Depending where you live, you are anywhere from days to weeks into the COVID 19 shutdown. While we have previously looked at the impact of COVID 19 on presidential politics, this post will focus on some other impacts.
Let’s start with our state legislatures. While the size varies from state-to-state, most of our legislative bodies are larger than should be gathered in one place at one time. Thus, it makes sense for legislative bodies to minimize days when they are actually in session and to reduce the number of hearings that they are holding (which many have done). On the other hand, many states have specific dates for their regular sessions. So, at some point soon, these state legislatures will reach the point where they have to meet so that they can pass appropriations bills to continue operations into the next fiscal year. How these state legislatures will handle these necessary votes — perhaps arranging for staggered voting so that one group of ten enters through separate doors, votes and then departs for the next group to enter — and what non-appropriations bills will also be deemed necessary remains to be seen. (I know that, in my state, the Republican majority is very unhappy with redistricting reform that passed in 2018 and want to put another proposal — with just enough sweeteners on legislative ethics to appeal to voters who do not understand the new proposal — to undo most of the reform on the ballot, Before COVID 19, it was likely that something would get on the ballot. Now, it’s unclear if the desire to get this issue on the ballot is high enough to get very limited hearing time and floor time.)
On similar grounds, many states have an initiative and referendum process. This process requires a certain number of signatures (sometimes with geographic distribution requirements) by a certain date. Particularly in a state in which — whether through intentional gerrymandering or population distribution — one party has control over the government, this process can often be the only way to get things like increases to the minimum wage or protection of worker’s rights passed into law. With COVID 19 (even though the petition gathering may technically be exempt from the stay-at-home order in some localities), it is going to be very difficult to get enough signature for ballot initiatives this year.
Finally, we have fundraising — both for political organizations and for charities that fill the gaps left by the unwillingness of the right to spend money on social programs. While there are other means to raise money — and if you use Amazon, I would encourage you to switch to their Amazon Smile site which refunds a small percent of your spending to the charity of your choice — many organizations rely on high attendance events to bring donors together and convince them to part way with a significant donation. For example, my county party uses an annual dinner/auction in late July to raise 90% of our funding. While we have the revenue from 2019 to aid our candidates this year, it is unclear at the present time whether a 90-person dinner in July will be a viable option.
And candidates are going to have the same problem. It may not be possible to do fundraisers before mid-May. And the window before wave two strikes later this year may be small and prevent holding any fundraisers close to the election. But the inability to raise moneys will not eliminate the need to do mailers and radio ads and phone banks (all though phone banks may need to be virtual). The time period for door-to-door campaigning may be small, but that will only increase the need for mailers and ads which may make the 2020 election even more expensive for those running in small counties than past elections.
Likewise, charities are also going to be impacted in their ability to hold big fundraisers. The local charity whose board I serve on had a video meeting this week to discuss our plans for the rest of the year. We typically do three or four big fundraisers during the year — two of which are big gatherings and the others requiring us hitting the streets to sell chances to win prizes. Those prizes are typically donated by local small businesses. So, COVID-19 may limit our ability to hold big gatherings or sell chances. And the impact of COVID-19 on the local small business is going to reduce our ability to ask for donations from many of our typical targets.
The bottom line is that COVID-19 is going to have a big impact on things that matter to us. When things relax in a month or two, if you live in a state that allows initiative, please take the time to consider signing an initiative petition if asked. The time frame for getting signatures is going to be very compressed; so every signature will matter. If you support a candidate or have a favorite local charity, please consider making a donation without waiting for a fundraiser because there might not be one.
