There are a number of primaries tomorrow, also some run-off elections and a Special Election. Some of them are Republican only, and I won’t be commenting on them because I honestly don’t care. For example, some Republican is going to win the runoff to get Mark Meadows seat. Whoever wins, he couldn’t be much worse than Meadows, and will lack his seniority.  (Thanks, I feel better now.) In the Virginia primary, Mark Warner is running unopposed and will keep his Senate seat in November.

The marquee events tomorrow are the Democratic Senate primary in Kentucky, the Special Election for convict (as of August, delayed due to pandemic) Chris Collins’ seat (NY-27) and some of the New York Democratic Congressional primaries: there are 10 of 12 incumbents seeking re-election who are being challenged.

Let’s start with the NY-27th: in 2018, WHILE UNDER INDICTMENT, Collins won over Nate McMurray, 49.1% to 48.8%. McMurray is running again, against state Sen. Chris Jacobs, who was hand-picked by the state Republican Party. Of note, Jacobs was almost tossed off the ballot for voter fraud, but last Friday night, the county DA decided to let bygones be bygones. If McMurray wins (which every well-regarded pollster and prognosticator says can’t possibly happen) in the reddest district in New York State, that would bide very well for a blue tsunami in November.

Also in New York, there are very interesting challenges. AOC is being challenged by Michelle Caruso-Cabrera. What you need to know about the challenger (one of many) is that she’s being supported by the US Chamber of Commerce because she is, fundamentally, a Republican registered as a Democrat. The challenge doesn’t seem like it will go anywhere, but it’s interesting to note how far the right will go to endeavor to unseat a smart, successful Democratic politician.

Eliot Engel, Foreign Affairs Chair and 11 term member of Congress is being challenged from the far left by Jamaal Bowman, who is also running on the Working Families line. This is a serious challenge, and Bowman received the Times endorsement. Engel can lose for several reasons: first, his district has changed, and he hasn’t changed with it, second, he didn’t go hard enough on Trump in his position as Chair, when he had a lot of options that he just ignored, and finally, Bowman is the right person at the right time in the the right place, and would be an awesome choice. Whoever wins the primary will win the election.

Yvette Clarke almost lost the primary in 2018, and is again being challenged by Adem Bunkeddeko. If you don’t live in the area, you’ve likely not heard a lot about him. He’s the son of  Ugandan immigrants, a Harvard MBA, and has an affordable housing plan that should be implemented nationwide.  Bunkeddeko also received the Times endorsement. If you are a liberal or a progressive who believes that housing, and the ability to afford it matters, read his plan, and then start pushing for it where you live.  Either could win this race, and whoever does, will keep the seat in Democratic hands.

Both Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney are also being challenged, but they will win their seats, and win in November.

Nita Lowey is retiring after 31 years in Congress, and there are a number of good options running to replace her.

In Kentucky, #MoscowMitch is going to win his primary as he doesn’t have any real challengers. On the Democratic side, until a week ago, it was going to be Amy McGrath. She raised more money than #MoscowMitch, she had the experience of a previous Congressional race, she was running on the type of 2018 platform that sent so many Democratic women to Congress. And then, Charles Booker. No money, not much organization, but he got himself OUT after the torture and murder of George Floyd. A few months ago, he was down by 50 points, and two recent polls had him down by 10 in one, and up by 8 in the other.  That 8 point win is courtesy of Civiqs, owned by DailyKos, and rated B/C by FiveThirtyEight.

We’re not going to know the outcome for a week, since a number of Kentucky counties have said they will not be releasing their tallies until the 30th, but we might see some trends tomorrow night.

All in all, the most interesting primary night (if we get to see returns) in a long time.