I will have further details on what the Supreme Court held about Trump’s taxes when I have a chance to digest everything from yesterday.  But in practical terms, there are two ways to view the decision.

On the one hand, Trump’s current arguments were soundly rejected by a 7-2 vote in both cases.  The president is not above the law and has to respond to proper subpoenas (with some caveats about the needs of courts to consider the burden on the presidency and the necessity of the subpoena).

On the other hand, Trump’s tax returns are still secret for the next several months.  In all of the cases, as I feared, the Supreme Court sent the case back to the lower courts to take another look at the motions to quash in light of the Supreme Court’s instructions.

In practical terms, the Supreme Court does not formally issue its judgment in a case until 25 days after the opinion.  So August 3 (barring a motion for rehearing) is the approximate date for when the appellate courts will have the cases back.  At that point, the appellate courts can either view the mandate as direct them to immediately send the case back to the trial court or to consider the trial court’s original findings under the new standard.  They will probably at least ask for suggestions from the parties.  In short, it will probably be several weeks after August 3 before the cases get back to the trial courts.

At that point, the attorneys for Trump will ask for a brief period to file a motion or suggestions regarding why — under the factors set forth by the Supreme Court — the trial court should still quash (i.e. cancel) the subpoenas and will request a hearing to set forth evidence supporting their claims.  In other words, mid-September and more likely the end of September before there is a hearing.  Even assuming a fast ruling, you are probably looking at something like October 7 or later to have a ruling that the banks have to comply with the subpoenas.

At that point, even if the banks turn over documents to the Manhattan grand jury, the likelihood of any charges or anything that would lead to the public release of those documents before the election are slim and none.

For the congressional subpoenas, it will not be that difficult for the attorneys to get a stay of a couple of weeks while the appellate courts decide whether to extend the stay pending appeal.  In short, sixteen weeks to go to the election, it is unlikely that any congressional committee will see any of Trump’s business records before the election.  And, after the election, unless there is a real smoking gun in those records, it is only Trump’s ego that is at risk.  (If there  is a smoking gun, Trump is toast when the Manhattan grand jury gets the records.)  But assuming that what is in there is merely politically damaging rather than criminally damaging, Trump can almost certainly keep the public from knowing it until it no longer matters.