As we noted in the previous two posts, a key part of the night will be how fast votes are counted and, in particular, what share of early and mail-in votes are released on election night and how many mail-in votes are potentially still in the mail and eligible to be counted. There is also the issue of how long the lines were — especially in urban precincts — which could delay the count of votes cast on election day. At this point in time, we should have projections from Kentucky and Indiana and the bluer and redder states from the 7 PM EST hour. The question during this hour is whether we start getting projections from some of the swingier states with 7 PM closing times like Florida and Georgia have been called, and, if so, in which direction.
During this hour, nine states will close across the entire state and the remainder of the polls will close in Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas. South Dakota is unlikely to be close for any race, and the majority of Kansas and Texas close at 8 PM EST. What to look for in Michigan, Texas, and Kansas is addressed in Part Two. Besides these partial closures, we have full closures in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Wyoming.
Louisiana is a weird state in that there are no party primaries. Everybody runs on the general election ballot, but it takes a majority to be elected. While none of the races are expected to flip, there is always the chance that the sheer number of candidates on the ballot could result in a run-off. Of course, some of these run-offs will feature two Republicans (or, in the one district that the Democrats hold, two Democrats). Wyoming also features no close contests and should be an early call across the board.
The remaining states feature at least one contest that may take some time before the networks are comfortable making a projection.
Starting on the east coast, New York is obviously not likely to be closely contested at the state level. There are, however, several House seats which are in play. The most significant may be the Second District which covers south central Long Island. The Republican incumbent (who has held this seat for twenty-seven years) is standing down. This district is, theoretically, a lean Republican district, but is very, very close to the median district. Other districts that the Republicans have to defend are the First District (eastern Long Island) and the Twenty-seventh district (the area between Buffalo and Rochester). The First is more likely to flip, but the Twenty-seventh is still a possibility. On the Democratic side, Republicans have some chance at the Third District (north central Long Island including part of Queens), the Eleventh District (Staten Island and part of Brooklyn), the Eighteenth District (Orange and Putnam Counties — the area just north of Westchester); the Nineteenth District (Mid-Hudson Valley), and the Twenty-second District (central New York to the east and south of Syracuse). With the exception of the Third District, all of these districts are lean Republican districts which would be competitive if the Republicans were competitive nationally. Of course, with the potential counting issues in New York, it may take a week to get some of these races sorted. There are also questions about the state senate that may impact redistricting.
Minnesota should be Democratic at the state level although it is closer than many would like. Like Virginia, the evening may take longer in Minnesota than many would like. Minnesota has eight districts with the Democrats holding five seats. The Second District is more interesting for a recent court fight than for the likelihood that it might flip. This district runs from the Minneapolis suburbs to the eastern state line. Under a Minnesota law enacted after Paul Wellstone’s death, the election is put on hold if a “major party” candidate dies after the deadline for putting a replacement on the ballot. But the threshold for being a major party is relatively low. In Minnesota, the Legal Marijuana Party is a major party even though they have never been competitive in any race. The Legal Marijuana candidate in the Second District died after the deadline for putting a new candidate on the ballot. The federal appellate court, however, decided that given the federal law mandating that all house seats be elected on November 3, that law was invalid as applied here. This seat is the typical suburban seat that has been trending blue over the past decade. On the other hand, the Seventh District represents the flip side of the equation — a rural district that looks more and more Republican each cycle. The Democratic incumbent is trying to hold this seat for a sixteenth term, but the Republicans have a strong challenger. On the other side, the Republicans have two seats to defend as well. The First District was an extremely close race in 2018, and the same two candidates are back for a rematch. The Eighth Circuit is potentially winnable as well.
Nebraska is all about one district — the Second District. This district is centered on Omaha. Because Nebraska awards an elector to the winner of each congressional district, this district could play a role in both the presidential race and the battle for the House. While it leans Republican, there is a good chance that Joe Biden and the Democratic congressional candidate could take this district.
Wisconsin looks like it is returning to its Democratic roots after a brief flirtation with the dark side. Particularly with counting issues, however, it might not be quickly resolved and this is one of the states in which a red mirage is a definite possibility. Beyond the race for president, there could be a close race in Wisconsin Third District — a toss-up district currently held by a Democrat.
Finally moving to the Rocky Mountains, there are three key states to this election — Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.
Arizona is the big one of the three. It is slowly transitioning from red to purple. It looks like Democrats could carry the state — both for President and Senator. Arizona has also been growing in the number of early and mail-in ballots. Each cycle, Arizona has gotten better at counting, but, in a close race, like in 2018, it might take two or three days to have a definitive result. There are three potentially close House races. The First District and Second District are lean Republican districts currently represented by Democrats. The Sixth District is in the Phoenix suburbs, and its another district were the Republican incumbent has had some ethical issues. Unlike other districts covered in previous posts, the incumbent is running for re-election.
Colorado is close to becoming a blue state. Colorado is a universal mail-in ballot state. It, like Arizona, is at the top of the list of Senate seats likely to flip blue. The most interesting race in the state may be for Colorado’s Third District covering most of western Colorado. The only reason that the race is up for grabs is that the Republicans committed suicide in the primary — kicking out a very conservative Trump loyalist for a QAnon follower.
Finally, there is New Mexico. Like Colorado, this purple state is now very blue. The Democrats should win the statewide races. The only race likely to be close is a rematch from 2018 in the Second District. In 2018, the Democrats took this district from the Republicans by less than 2%. This is another one of those seats that Democrats won in 2018 that the Republicans would expect to win if they were winning the battle for the House.
By the end of this hour, polls would have been closed in most of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, and Virginia for three hours and for approximately two and half hours in most of North Carolina. Barring a real problem with long lines in urban areas, we should have a very good idea of where these states stand by now but may not be getting calls out of them yet. (in 2016, none of the battleground states were called before 10:00 p.m. Virginia was the first called at 10:35 p.m. Obviously starting to get calls for Biden in these states before 10:00 p.m. would be a good sign.)
It is unlikely that there will be enough states projected to determine a winner, but we should have enough races called and enough votes in to start seeing a pattern. Is there a national vote swing from 2016 and how big is it? Are we seeing that type of swing in the counties that have reported a significant share of the results? How are the election day votes comparing to the pre-election votes? Because of potential counting issues, we may not know with certainty who is going to win, but it should be clear if we are looking at a long couple of days (in which there is a very close race for Biden to pick up just enough states that went for Trump to flip the result) or if there is a chance that we may have enough states that went for Trump in 2016 flip over the course of the evening to make clear that Biden has won (or that Trump is picking up states that Clinton won).
It is in the next hour, as we get ready to flip over to the local news, that we might start seeing enough calls for there to be a clear winner in the battle for control of the White House, Senate, and House.
