Based on where things currently stand, it looks like when the new Senate convenes on January 3, the Republicans will have a 51-48 or 50-49 majority (depending upon the results in Alaska). First, a word on why there will be only 99 Senators.
At this point, it looks like both races in Georgia are headed to a run-off on January 5. Senator David Perdue’s current term ends on January 3. As there will be no winner in that race, the seat will technically be vacant as of January 3. Senator Kelly Loeffler, however, was appointed to fill a seat. The term for that seat ends on January 3, 2023. Under the Seventeenth Amendment, until there is a winner of that special election, she continues to hold that seat. (For Arizona, that means that as soon as the result is certified, Mark Kelly replaces Sally McBride as the new Senator. So, if there is a lame duck session in December, the margin will be 52-48 rather than the current 53-47.)
The big issue is whether anything will be able to get through the new Senate. The real question is whether there is a moderate caucus that could try to leverage both parties against each other to make some real reform to allow the Senate to function. On the Democratic side of the aisle, Senator Joe Manchin (Senator from Coal Country West Virginia) has to walk a very fine line if he wants any chance at re-election. Likewise Senator Sinema and Senator-to-be Kelly from Arizona represent a marginally swing state as would potential Senator Osser and potential Senator Warnock from Georgia. And Senator King from Maine seems to be a true independent. So, there is a group of four to six in the Democratic caucus that are not going to want to move too fast and might be open to reforms to make the Senate a more “collegial” body.
On the other hand, you have a handful of Republicans who are either moderately conservative or are institutionalists — Senator Murkowski of Alaska, Senator Collins of Maine, Senator Portman of Ohio, Senator Romney of Utah and maybe one or two others. They are not going to want to block everything that will be coming out of the House, but they are going to want to make significant changes to much of that legislation. They are not going to give big victories to a Biden Administration, but they do not want to be part of a “do nothing” Senate.
The question is whether these two groups can get together before January 3 and propose some reforms to the rules. Perhaps, establishing rules assuring that presidential nominees — both for executive positions and judicial positions — get hearings in a timely fashion and a floor vote. While this group will not support abolishing the filibuster, perhaps they would be willing to support some modification to limit the filibuster. And, just perhaps, this group would be willing to put some checks on the majority leader’s control over the floor to allow the minority to bring matters up for a vote. Depending on the exact terms of any agreement between these two groups that they could force the rest of the Senate to accept, you perhaps could see a Senate in which legislation with support from 51 Senators could move even if the majority of the majority party oppose that legislation.
On the other hand, if no such agreement can be reached, and a 51-49 Senate just refuses to do anything (even confirm cabinet nominees), then Joe Biden will have to quickly pivot to making the Senate the issue in American politics. Part of this problem can be avoided if Democrats put in the effort in Georgia. Turnout is going to be the key. If we can get 90% of the people who voted for Osser and Biden to vote on January 5 for Osser and Warnock, then we are looking at a 50-50 Senate (at worst). We will not necessarily get full reform of the Senate (as it is unlikely that Manchin would support abolishing the filibuster entirely), and we will not get all of the legislation that we want (as holding all 50 Democrats on every bill without major concessions is going to be impossible). But we will get some legislation.
Regardless of whether Democrats end up with 48, 49, 50, or 51 Senators in the new Senate, Democratic activists have to immediately focus on the 2022 elections after January 5. There is a 50-50 chance that Senator Grassley of Iowa will be retiring. We already know that Senator Burr of North Carolina and Senator Toomey of Pennsylvania will be retiring. All three of these seats are potentially winnable as open seats. And, the seats of Senator Rubio in Florida and Senator Johnson are also winnable. On the Democratic side, we might have to fight to defend the seat of Senator Kelly and potential Senator Warnock. In short, the Democrats have a fighting chance to gain a Senate majority after the 2022 elections. As was the case for Republicans in 2018, the 2022 map actually favors the Democrats. The House is going to depend a lot upon redistricting which will be a subject of discussion in the Spring when we start getting the census numbers for the states.
