The 2020 elections left both the House and the Senate closely divided. And two years is a long time in politics. But experience has taught politicians two, somewhat contradictory, things that will impact what can get done during the next two years.
The first, especially for the House of Representatives, is that the President’s party typically loses seats. But the reason for this normal rule is that a new President has typically helped members of his party to flip seats. As such, this might be less true for 2022 than in the past. In 2020, the Democrats only won three new seats, and two were the results of North Carolina having to fix its extreme gerrymander. And only a handful of Democratic incumbents won close races. And the rule is less consistent for the Senate, in large part because the Senators up for election are not the ones who ran with the President in the most recent election but the ones who ran with the prior president six years earlier. In other words, the President’s party tends to be more vulnerable in the Senate in the midterms of the second term than in the midterms of the first term. But the likelihood that the President’s party will lose seats is an incentive to do as much as possible during the first two years.
The second is that one cause of the swing may be overreach — that voters are trying to check a President who is going further than the voters actually wanted. This theory assumes that there are enough swing voters who really want centrist policies and that they switch sides frequently to keep either party from passing more “extreme” policies. Polls do not really support this theory and there is an argument that, at least part of the mid-term problem, could be the failure to follow through on all of the promises leading to less enthusiasm with the base. But this theory is a reason for taking things slowly and focusing on immediate necessities first and putting the “wish list” on hold until after the mid-terms.
For the 2022 elections, there is one big unknown — the “real” composition of the House. In other countries with legislative districts, the media actually has a concept of the “notional” party division in the legislature. Put in simple terms, after a redistricting occurs, the media will look at the new lines and figure out who would have won the last election if it had been held under the new lines. (In other words, using the United Kingdom as an example, if the new lines merge three Labour districts into two and split two Conservative districts into three, that would create a notional division of three Conservative seats and two Labour seats in place of the actual three Labour seats and two Conservative seats. ) Unfortunately, at this point, we are months away from knowing the notional composition of the House. According to the Census Bureau, it will be late April or later before they release the apportionment numbers. More importantly, that means that the state redistricting numbers will not be released until May (for some states) and maybe even June or July (for other states).
While a lot can be said about the gross failures of the Trump Administration related to the Census, this delay has three key impacts. First, most states have limited legislative sessions. And the delay in reporting the Census numbers makes it highly likely that these states will need a special session to draw the new lines. Second, depending on the rules in the particular states, the new lines might not be in place until just before the filing period begins for 2022. That is going to make it hard to recruit candidates to run in 2022 for both parties.
But the third impact is most important. It is possible to use census estimates to get a good guess at which states will be gaining seats and which ones will be losing seats. There is, of course, some margin for error, but those errors are mostly at the margins with a state moving up or down one or two slots in the priority list for the 430th-440th representative. So maybe a state that is projected to barely hold its current seats will lose one or a state that is projected to barely gain a seat will not get it, but we are probably talking about a change of one or two seats at most from the estimates. But what is harder is to figure out what it means inside the individual states. A state could have zero change in seats, but there could be some current districts which need to shed population while other districts need to gain population. And, regardless of the change in seats, the majority party will have to decide whether it would rather make its current seats more secure or make more swing seats (and the history is that the preference is to reduce the number of swing seats). So even if red states gain and blue states lose seats, you might have Republican legislatures in the red states concede the new seats to the Democrats to shore up a current Republican in a swing seat. As a result, it is unclear how many Democratic seats might be vulnerable in 2022.
For the Senate, the starting map slightly favors Democrats. This group of seats was up in 2010 and 2016. The 2010 results were so favorable for Republicans that there were slight losses in 2016 and, as a result of special elections, further slight losses in 2020. But even with those swings, there are 20 Republican Senate seats on the ballot to 14 Democratic seats. Going down the list, here are the seats to be watching for 2022:
Alaska — Alaska is going to a new election format for 2022. You will have a top four primary followed by ranked choice voting in the general. This new format makes it more likely that Senator Murkowski will make it to the general. But you will probably have a Trumpist candidate there as well along with a credible Democrat. It is possible that Senator Murkowski might be third after the second round of voting which would perhaps open the door for a Democrat pickup, but this seat is probably a long shot.
Arizona — Arizona is going to be one of a handful of vulnerable Democratic seats. It is going to be about turnout. If Democrats abstain (or the Republicans find a candidate who can appeal to swing voters), this seat could flip. The Democrats best chance for keeping it is the developing divisions in the Arizona Republican Party which almost guarantee that the strongest general election candidates will not win the primary.
Florida — Florida is on the list solely because of the unpopularity of Senator Rubio. However, 2020 should serve as a reminder to take Senate approval ratings with a cup full of salt. The “disapprove” numbers include a significant number of Republicans who think that the Senator is not extreme enough. In the absent of a viable Trumpy opponent (maybe one with the last name of Trump) who can take him out in the primary, the Trump Republicans will be there for the general like they were for Moscow Mitch.
Georgia — Like Arizona, the issue is whether Democrats will turn out in 2022, and whether the Georgia Republican Party can avoid committing electoral suicide. If Stacey Abrams runs for Governor, the odds of keeping this seat increase. But it and Arizona are the two most likely Democratic losses in 2022 as things stand now.
Iowa — Whether this race is competitive depends on two things. First, does former president pro tempore Senator Grassley run for another term. If he does, then this seat will not be competitive. Second, who can the Democrats get to run for this seat. Iowa is trending red, and it will take a very good candidate to win this seat.
Nevada — Nevada has been trending blue but it hasn’t moved blue by a lot. Currently, it is very slightly blue. If the Republicans can find a good candidate, they could win a low turnout election. Nevada is probably third on the Republican target list.
New Hampshire — New Hampshire is another leaning Democrat states. While probably on the Republican target seat, there are only a handful of viable Republican candidates. If none of them get into the race, it should be safe.
North Carolina — North Carolina is the opposite of Nevada and New Hampshire in that it is a barely Republican state. Senator Burr is not running for reelection, and both parties have a significant number of potential candidates. This race may be decided by the primaries. If the Republicans nominate Mark Meadows or Lara Trump, the Democrats may have a good chance at gaining the seat. If they nominate a more mainstream Republican, the Democrats may find themselves losing another close race.
Ohio — Ohio is another Republican open seat. There are some potentially strong Democratic candidates for this race, but a lot depends on whom the Republicans find. Ohio is a lean Republican state. As with North Carolina, the right Democrat could win this seat especially if the Trump wing of the Republican Party can steal the Republican nomination. But this race is probably only fourth or fifth on the list of Democratic targets.
Pennsylvania — I am sure Doc Jess will have more to say about this race over the next two years and who might be the best Democratic candidate. Pennsylvania has become closer than it ever should have been, but it is still a lean Democrat state. If Democrats can’t win this open seat in 2022, we are going to have a hard time keeping the majority. It is clearly the top Democratic target.
Vermont — Vermont is the flip of Iowa. If Senator Leahy runs for reelection, he will win. If he does not, there are one or two Republicans that could make it a race, but the Democrats should keep the seat even if Senator Leahy decides to retire.
Wisconsin — Senator Vladimir Putin (excuse me, Senator Ron Johnson) promised to only serve two terms when he first ran in 2010. Whether or not he can be trusted to keep his word on this pledge remains to be seen, but given his past history, Senator Johnson is probably running again. That will make it harder, but Wisconsin is probably the best chance that the Democrats have for beating a Republican incumbent. I would currently place it second on the target list.
In short, if Democrats can win the two Senate seats in states that voted for Biden and, maybe, pickup one or two open seats in swing states, the Democrats could gain Senate seats in 2022. On the other hand, there are two or three highly vulnerable Democratic seats. And the fact that both parties have an opportunity to gain firm control of the Senate in 2022 is going to impact what gets through this cycle. And the fact that we may not know until January the map on which the House will be contested in 2022 is going to make it hard to figure which House members need to be protected on controversial issues.
