On Friday, we got the latest update from the Census Bureau on the 2020 Census. And it was not good news.
Earlier, we had learned that the current target date for release of the national numbers (broken down by state) is April 30. Assuming that the Census Bureau meets that target, the formal release of the apportionment figures (how many seats each state will have in Congress for the next five cycles) will probably come out in mid-May. And, of course, the census block level numbers that the states need to actually redistrict would come out later. That was already bad news as it meant that many states will need special sessions of their legislatures to draw the lines for the 2022 election.
On the good side, however, given the delay in the numbers, the Census Bureau went ahead and released the geography files for the states. As of yesterday, the files have been released for all fifty states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Thus, software programmers for redistricting programs can now update their programs with the new geography. But the geography is only half of the data that these programs need. The other half is the actual numbers showing the population for each census block.
On the census block level numbers that are the other necessary piece of data for redistricting, however, we got bad news. In the past, we have seen a rolling release of those numbers, typically taking around three months from the release of the national numbers. That would have implied that we would have the numbers for all of the states by the end of July. While not great, it would give most states enough time to draw up new lines before filing begins for 2022. Now, however, the Census Bureau is planning to release all of the states at the same time with a target date of September 30.
With this latest news, two things are now readily apparent. First, the Trump Administration Census Bureau completely failed at job number one — preparing for and running the 2020 Census. There were hints of this coming as the Trump Administration was more focused on modifying the Census to exclude immigrants than actually ramping up to run the Census. When COVID 19 made the process even harder, the grossly understaffed field operations were unable to respond.
Second, we now have a mess on our hands for redistricting. Already, it was looking like most states will have to call special sessions to draw the new Congressional lines (and state legislative lines) for 2022. But some states have commissions to draw lines. While a legislature can rush through new lines, a commission process is likely to take longer. Primaries for the 2022 elections are scheduled in some states for the Spring of 2022 with some set for March 2022. And that means that some states will have deadlines in December 2022 for the primary. For example, the filing deadline in Texas is the second Monday in December. My state is one of those that uses a commission to draw state legislative lines, and — assuming that it takes the maximum time permitted — we may not have legislative lines until September 2022.
In light of this mess, we are probably looking at court action in October (at least for some states) to set the lines for the 2022 elections and give legislatures and commissions enough time to draw the lines for the 2024 election.
