Despite hopes for better from the Republican Party, Donald Trump again escaped being held politically liable for his misconduct.  Of course, President Trump is the only U.S. president in which members of his own party voted for conviction, but seven Republican senators out of fifty.

There were some surprises in the final vote.  Of the four Republicans who will be retiring in 2022, two voted to convict.  The only Senator currently running for re-election in 2022 that voted to convict was Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.  Given that Alaska has done away with party primaries and will be using a top four primary with ranked choice voting in the general, Donald Trump’s threats against Senator Murkowski do not carry much weight.  Of the other four votes, two come from long-time Trump critics — Mitt Romney of Utah and Ben Sasse of Nebraska — whom Trump would go after regardless of their vote and one came from Susan Collins of Maine who has always faced the need to triangulate between being a loyal Republican and the Democratic majority in her state.  The only Senator to vote to convict who is probably running again and was not considered to be  a member of the moderate/conservative wing of the Republican Party was Bill Cassidy of Louisiana (who like Collins was just re-elected and can hope that six years is long enough for this madness to pass).  And like Murkowski, Senator Cassidy is from a state that does not have partisan primaries.  He just needs to keep enough Republican support to finish in the top two and then win the run-off.

But the bigger question is what this means for the 2024 election.  Not being convicted means that Donald Trump is technically eligible to run in 2024.  And he will continue to make noise about running.  While the odds are that he will not run, his omnipresence will alter the trajectory of the run-up to that race.  While some would-be candidates (like Nikki Haley) are apparently going ahead with making initial plans, others are going to have to wait for Trump to  yield the field.  Candidates will certainly not be able to raise money from Trump supporters until he announces that he is not running.

Of course, his attorneys — who could be facing discipline for lying to a tribunal — all but laid down the gauntlet daring prosecutors to file criminal charges against Trump.  While the Department of Justice may not accept that challenge, I would expect charges from the Fulton County (Atlanta, Georgia) District Attorney and the Manhattan District Attorney before the end of the year.  That, plus his other financial troubles, could spell the end of Donald Trump as a meaningful political figure.

Donald Trump’s presence as a potential candidate also freezes the ability of the Republican Party to fix its nomination system.  Unlike the Democrats who adopt rules for the nomination process during the two years after the election, the Republicans include the rules as part of the Party rules which are adopted at the last convention.  Any change to the rules must gain the support of three-quarters of the Republican National Committee and must be passed by September 30, 2022.

For now, the key thing to know is that the Republican Party only requires “proportional” allocation for delegates in elections held between March 1 and March 15.  And even then proportionality is loosely defined.  A state party can set the minimum vote required to win delegates as high as 20%.  They can also convert to winner-take-all if a candidate gets 50% (not likely in the early primaries which may make that provision moot).  And lastly, at the Congressional District level (where most districts get three delegates) a 2-1 split between the top two — even if the third-placed candidate gets 20% — is considered proportional.  These rules which tend to promote winner-take-all played a significant role in Trump’s ability to get the nomination in 2016.  Given that Trump forces controlled who is on the RNC, it is unlikely that the Republicans will change these rules for 2024, and they are certainly not going to adopt the rules that the Democrats use (i.e. more district members, no winner-take-all, and a lower threshold to win delegates).

But, if the Republicans are interested in becoming a broader party that could compete nationally, some rule changes would make sense.  First, a 2-1 split should not be considered proportional.  The rules should expressly provide that a 2-1 split at the Congressional District level is only permissible if only two candidates get 20% of the vote.  Second, the period of proportionality should be expanded to cover the early primaries (sorry South Carolina) and primaries through April.  Third, the winner-take-all threshold should be bumped up to 60% (which will make it harder for candidates to sweep states in late March and April — sorry Ohio, Arizona, Florida, and New York).  That way, winner-take-all would only come into effect in the late states when the winner has been decided, and the party is simply trying to shut down a convention fight.  The party should also consider revising its rules on direct election of delegates (in states like Illinois and Pennsylvania) so that direct election is only used to choose which delegates get to represent the candidate instead of being an exception to the allocation rules.

I don’t expect the RNC to do any of this.  The hostile takeover of the Republican Party by Trump, Inc., and the Proud Boys is almost complete.  But if the Republican leadership wants a chance to preserve the values of the Republican Party, they will consider some changes to the rules to make it harder for non-Republicans to win the nomination.  If not, while it may not be Donald Trump, the 2024 nominee will be another Donald Trump-type figure who has no chance of winning the popular vote and will require the active assistance of progressives to win the electoral vote.