Moving onto the states that gained a seat this cycle, we’ll start with one of the two small ones — Oregon. Unlike the colossus that is Texas, where the three major metropolitan area each have multiple district that twist and weave around each other and it is very difficult to describe the urban districts, it is very easy to describe the current districts in Oregon. The First is the most northwest part of Oregon; the Second is the Eastern part of Oregon, the Third is the Portland area; the Fourth is the southwest part of Oregon (containing both major state universities), and the Fifth is the northwest part of Oregon south of the First and the Portland area (containing the state capitol region).
Oregon is a mix of good news and bad news for the Democrats. On the good news side of the equation, the Democrats are in control of the redistricting process in Oregon. On the bad news side of the equation, the Democrats in Oregon seem to be committed to trying to reach a consensus plan with the Republicans. More importantly, two of the seats currently controlled by Democrats are very slim Democratic majorities. In other words, the Democrats option in Oregon is between having three toss-up districts or having two lean Democratic districts and one lean Republican district.
Given these interests, I could see the Fifth moving toward the northeast (taking excess from the First and Third. The northwestern part of the Second, and the eastern part of the Third and the Fifth would be the core of a new Sixth District. Most of the western part of the Fifth would get transferred to the Fourth district which would lose its eastern and southern part (basically becoming a very small district to the southwest of Portland). Basically, the new Sixth would stretch from just east of Portland down to the southwest coast wrapping around the other five districts in a very weird shape. While it is probably possible to do some additional adjustments, these are the breakdowns that I got (noted there were some third party votes: First — Democrats 57.4%, Republicans 38.1% (down from approximately 65% Democrats); Second — Democrats 32.2%, Republicans 64.0% (up from approximately 58% Republican); Third — Democrats 71.8%, Republicans 24.6% (down from approximately 75%); Fourth — Democrats 54.4%, Republicans 41.2% (up from 52% Democrats); Fifth — Democrats 56.6%, Republicans 39.5% (approximately the same as currently); Sixth — Democrats 47.4%, Republicans 48.3%.
Oregon is a good example of the tradeoffs that will have a significant impact on line drawing. There are only so many Democrats that can be moved from the Third to the First, Fifth, and Sixth. And there are only so many Republicans that can be crammed into the Second. And in the end, there will be decisions about the precincts along the border between the Fourth and the Sixth.
The bottom line is that Oregon will probably not be as aggressive in drawing the lines as I was. At best, the lines will be 1 solid Democrats, 2 safe Democrats, 1 lean Democrat, 1 swing, and 1 solid Republican. But we will probably end up with 2 solid Democrats, 1 safe Democrat, 1 lean Democrat, 1 lean Republican and 1 solid Republican.
