By the end of the process, redistricting in Pennsylvania may come down to which of two prior district maps is the baseline for the new maps. Currently, the Republicans control the state legislature while there is a Democratic governor. While I will leave it to those on the ground in Pennsylvania to discuss what the chances are for a compromise map, if the legislature is unable to pass a map that the governor will sign (as happened in 2018), the responsibility for drawing the new map will fall on the courts.
In drawing new maps, courts tend to use the existing map as a baseline. Because Pennsylvania is losing a seat, there will need to be significant adjustments, but courts are likely to be somewhat neutral as far as which party benefits from the changes. But the issue is which map is the starting point. In 2011, when Republicans controlled everything, they drew a very partisan map. The Pennsylvania courts struck down those maps on state law grounds in 2018. The interim maps drawn by the courts are still in effect due to the failure of the legislature to come up with a new map. Because the 2018 maps are more neutral, Democrats would benefit if the courts start with the 2018 maps. For this reason, it would make sense for Democrats to file a preemptive case in state court. Simply put, the state courts are more likely to start with the 2018 maps as the U.S. Supreme Court has held that, in drawing remedial maps, federal courts should start with the last legislatively drawn map and make only the changes needed to remedy the violations.
Besides the general issues of which district(s) will be split in two (or three) to balance out the rest of the state, there are two other matters which could impact the lines. The first of these matters is the race for the U.S. Senate. As of now, no member of Congress has entered the race for Senate. There are a handful of House seats that are, at least on paper, swing seats. The individuals holding those seats have the decision of whether they want to continue to have to fight every two years to hold those seats or if they want to take the chance at winning the Senate seat. While a good incumbent can outperform their party in their district, the First, Seventh, Eighth, and Seventeenth are swing seats that slightly favor the Democrats by margins of 2.8% to 6.9% with Democrats currently holding three of the four seats. Representative Brian Fitzgerald who somehow manages to hold the First District for the Republicans and Representative Matt Cartwright in the Eighth District and Representative Connor Lamb in the Seventeenth District for the Democrats all have to wonder how long their luck will continue to hold in redrawn districts. And it would be much easier for those drawing the maps if they don’t have to choose which two incumbents to force into the same race.
The second matter is, of course, the Voting Rights Act. The Voting Rights Act should have minimal impact in Pennsylvania. Currently, the Second District is a majority-minority district although whites have the plurality in that district with roughly equal numbers of African-Americans and Hispanics. And the Third District has an African-American majority. The Fifth District and the Seventh District are the only other districts in which the white population is less than 70% of the total population and it is a stretch to call either of these two districts a minority influence district.
Meanwhile on the west side of the state, the Eighteenth District (Pittsburgh and its immediate suburbs is essentially surrounded by the Seventeenth and Fourteenth. Short of splitting the Eighteenth in two (which is difficult to justify), what looks most likely is a map in which the western districts push eastward and the eastern district push westward until you get a situation where three districts (losing about one-third of their current base each to the other districts) are then merged into two district that take roughly equal parts from the three current districts. Such a change probably favors the Democrats somewhat, but there will be a lot of arguing about where the exact lines are.
Taking these concerns into account (and trying to avoid unnecessary split counties, I am seeing a slight drift from the First into the Fourth in Montgomery County. Meanwhile in Philadelphia, the Second District drifts slightly into the Third District and the Third slightly into the Fifth to try to keep the current balance of minority votes in those two districts intact. The Fifth District then drifts into southeast Chester County (to keep Representative Houlihans’s home in the Sixth District).
Meanwhile the Fourth District and the Sixth District drift northward in Berks County taking population from the Ninth District. In short, the six “Philadelphia” districts stay mostly intact with the only new “split” county being Chester County.
The boundary between the Seventh District and the Eighth District will be a major decision. The Seventh is several percentage points more Democratic than the Eighth District with the having a current margin of around 3.8%. The current map splits Monroe County between the two districts. Which precincts you move and in which directions will be key. Taking precincts away from the Eighth will force the Eighth into Republican territory in Susquehanna County and Wyoming County (and additional parts of Luzerne County). It’s possible by moving Republican precincts in Monroe County to the Seventh that you will make both districts slightly closer but keep the Eighth as very slightly favoring the Democrats (byaround 0.5%).
On the other hand, if you expand the Eighth southward, the Seventh would have to make up population from Republican precincts in Carbon County. If you expand the Seventh District northward in Monroe County,, you will be taking some toss-up/lean Democrat precincts away from the Eighth District which would then have to expand westward into rural Republican areas in Susquehanna County and Wyoming County which would flip the Eighth District from slightly favoring the Democrats (approximately 50.9-49.1) to slightly favoring the Republicans (by about 0.3%). On the other hand, you could move some of the Democratic precincts in Monroe to the Eighth District with the Seventh District gaining some lean Republicans precincts in Carbon County and part of Schuylkill County. This move would actually make the Seventh District slightly closer than the Eighth District (a 3.4% margin in the Seventh compared to a 5.4% margin in the Eighth). Alternatively, you could move the Seventh into Berks County and get slightly less Republican precincts but that would only bump the Eighth District up to a 3.8% margin (and would push the Sixth into southern Schuylkill County in exchange for getting the Eighth District out of eastern Schuylkill County.
Turning to the western half of the state, the old Eighteenth District (renumbered as the new Seventeenth District) will gain some additional suburbs of Pittsburgh. The old Eighteenth/new Seventeenth will need around 54,000 people and Democrats would prefer that the additional people come from Republican precincts in the old Seventeenth rather than the Democratic precincts in the old Seventeenth. Assuming that Democrats get their wish and the new Seventeenth adds parts of Western Allegheny County, that would only marginally shift the new Seventeenth toward the Republicans but it would remain a solid Democratic district. To keep the old Seventeenth (new Sixteenth) in balance, you will need to give the part that is in Butler County to the old Sixteenth (new Fifteenth) and take some Democratic precincts on in the western part of Westmoreland County. It is possible to keep the new Sixteenth slightly Democratic but the margin will shrink from 3.8% to 2.6%.
The old Sixteenth (new Fifteenth) will take the rest of Butler County and part of Venango County from the old Fifteenth. Meanwhile the Fourteenth will take the remainder of Westmoreland County along with from the old Thirteenth and Armstrong County and the very southwestern corner of Indiana County from the Old Fifteenth.
By the time that you get to the eastern side of the Old Fifteenth (new Thirteenth), the question becomes which two representatives get the short straw. The new Thirteenth will have already taken the rest of Centre County and Cambria County. To get the remaining 55,000, do you go to the northeast into the Twelfth District (leaving Representative Thompson, the senior member of the delegation, without facing an incumbent or do you turn to the southeast and take Blair County, home to Representative Joyce. For now, I am assuming that Representative Thompson stays safe and he gets Clinton County and part of Potter County to complete his district. We face the same decision with the Twelfth District, except with fewer districts left the options become harder. We can turn westward and bring in the northern and western part of the old Thirteenth, we could turn to the southeast and take in the home base of Representative Meuser in the Ninth. Or do you chart a middle path and avoid. In this type of map, Representative Joyce probably gets drawn against Representative Perry in the Tenth or Representative Perry faces off against Representative Smucker in the Eleventh. The most coherent map probably has the Twelfth District expanding into Luzerne County and the Ninth District, but given that York County (home to Representative Perry is already split between the Tenth and Eleventh, it might be hard to draw a map that does not move Representative Perry into the Representative Smucker’s District.
In this potential map, the Twelfth gets Luzerne County, Columbia County, Montour County, and part of Schuylkill County from the Ninth District. What is left of the Ninth merges with the old Eleventh (now the Ninth District). The new Ninth District gives a chunk of York County back to the Tenth only keeping a sliver in the southeast. The Tenth gives most of its part of Cumberland County to the Old Thirteenth (new Eleventh District).
While there are multiple choices that the line drawers (either a compromise between the Democrats and the Republican) or some judge or judges will have to make, the map that the above choices creates resulted in eleven of the seventeen districts being more competitive than the predecessor district (or in the case of the new Ninth District, closer than either the current Ninth or current Eleventh District). The partisan breakdown is four solid Democratic district, (more than 60% expected vote), four solid Republican Districts, one safe Democratic district (57-60% expected vote), one safe Republican district, two lean Republican districts (54-57% expected vote), and five toss-up district that slightly favor the Democrats. For the five toss-up districts, the expected vote for Democrats range 50.3% to 52.0%. In short, the map would have a 7-5 Republican edge with five toss-up districts that Democrats could win. Of course, the current split in those five toss-up districts is 4-1 and all of these districts (other than the Eighth District) will be slightly better for the Republicans than the current lines. In short, the Republicans lose one Republican-leaning toss-up seat. And the Democrats need to win four of the five toss-up seats to have the majority in the delegation.
Of course, as with other states, there is the big caution of how much the expected vote numbers can be trusted in the post-Trump era. Any composite expected vote includes the pre-Trump votes when the rural areas where a little bit closer and the suburbs were friendlier to Republicans and the Trump era votes when Democrats crashed in rural areas and the suburbs shifted blue. But any map will reflect how close Pennsylvania currently is. Short of an extreme gerrymander, there are going to be several toss-up seats and either party could end up with 9-8 or 10-7 advantage in the delegation if they find the right candidates and win some close contests.
