Like Pennsylvania, Ohio is a midwestern state that has lost a seat in the House and has an open Senate seat. There are two key differences. First, in Ohio, the governor is also a Republican. Ohio voters have adopted some checks on the majority party ability to redistrict at will, but the majority can force through a map that will last for two cycles without any minority support. Second, Democratic Representative Tim Ryan has already announced that he will be running for Senate. While that allows the legislature to keep the remaining incumbents in separate districts, it does not mean that changing the maps in a way that keeps incumbents separate will be easy as incumbents do not always live in the center of their district.
Already, Ohio is a very gerrymandered state with some very weird map shapes. As with the other states that lost a seat, most of the existing districts are short on voters with two exceptions — the Third District (Columbus) and the Twelfth District (the area to the north and east of Columbus in central Ohio). Other than the Fifteenth District (the area to the south of Columbus) which is only 15,000 people short, the remaining thirteen districts are between 30,000 and 90,000 people short. In particular, the five districts that adjoin the current Thirteenth District are a combined 330,000 short. But as the current Thirteenth has just approximately 707,000 people, that will be around 370,000 people that those districts will have to kick to the rest of the state. More significantly, as in the rest of the state, the lines were carefully drawn to pack as many Democrats into the Democratic districts as possible. The Eleventh District which stretches from Cleveland to Akron is carefully drawn so that the Democrat expected votes are around 80%. While it borders the Thirteenth District, it can’t move too far east into the current Thirteenth without needing to shed Democratic voters into the Republican districts to the west. And the Fourteenth District (northeastern Ohio) is a lean Republican district that really can’t afford to give Republicans to the Eleventh District or take in the Democrats around Akron, Ravenna, or Youngstown. In short, once again, the Republicans are going to be very carefully looking precinct by precinct as they carve up the Thirteenth District and make the necessary shifts of the districts toward the eastern part of the state.
Trying to draw a more favorable map for Democrats, I began by doing two things: First, there are three counties that are large enough to fully contain a district — Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Hamilton County (Cincinnati), and Franklin County (Columbus). In the current map, only Franklin contain fully contains a district (Third District). So I kept Cincinnati intact (which would force the two Republican representatives from the First and Second District into a primary) and drew a map that had eastern and central Hamilton County around Cincinnati in the First District and kept the Eleventh District in Cuyahoga County. That flipped the First District from a toss-up favoring the Republicans to a lean Democratic District. It did lower the African-American population in the Eleventh District Overall, African-Americans are still the largest population group but they are only a plurality and among the voting age population, there are slightly more whites than African-Americans. African-Americans should still have the majority of votes in the Democratic primary, and the district is solidly Democratic; so African-Americans should be able to elect their preferred candidate. These shifts force the Second District eastward and northward (taking some area from the Fifteenth District).
Second, I kept the Thirteenth District mostly intact and expanded it westward to Akron in Summit County. Making the numbers work for the Fourteenth District requires giving up some territory in the north, but going west to Akron makes the district a toss-up that borders on being a lean Democratic district. (The change in expected vote is only 03% in favor of the Republicans). With the Thirteenth District staying intact, the Seventh District and Sixteenth District merge (again forcing another pair of Republican incumbents into a primary).
Besides these two changes, I made changes to the Tenth District and Fifteenth District that make them significantly bluer. Instead of the Tenth District taking in the northern half of Fayette County (the county on the eastern end of the district), I turned the Tenth District north into the southern half of Clark County to take in some Democrats around Springfield. Instead of taking the Fifteenth District south from Columbus, I take it in more of the Columbus area (shifting the Third slightly northward — essentially taking Democratic precincts from the Twelfth District to allow the shifting of Democratic precincts in the south of the Third District to the Fifteenth).
The net result of the more Democratic map is two solid Democratic districts (Third District and Eleventh District), two lean Democratic districts (First District and Ninth District), two toss-up districts that favor Democrats (Thirteenth District and Fifteenth District), one toss-up district that favors Republicans (Tenth District), two lean Republican districts (Seventh District and Fourteenth District), and six solid Republican Districts (Second District, Fourth District, Fifth District, Sixth District, and Twelfth District). Basically a 9-6 map with an outside in which Democrats have an outside shot at 8-7 and the Republicans could get to 10-5. That compares to the current map which is 12-4 with Democrats having a very outside chance at 10-6 and the pro-Republican map that is 12-3 with Democrats having a very outside shot at 11-4.
At the end of the day, I expect another heavily gerrymandered map in Ohio which will all but guarantee that the lost seat will be a Democratic seat. But the fact that the lines in Ohio are drawn in such a fashion to assure that Democrats have three fewer seats than they would win in a fair map is another example of a major problem in American democracy. We remain the only major democracy that gives legislators the lead role in drawing maps. In every other country, the national legislative line are primarily drawn by non-partisan officials who have the obligation to draw fair maps. While there are states in which the Democrats have the advantage, the likely result of this round of redistricting will be more states like Ohio and the median district will probably be four percent more Republican than the country as a whole which is one of the main reasons why the Democrats will have to fight hard in 2022 to keep the House of Representatives. If the goal is to carve up the current Thirteenth, the Sixth District (southeast Ohio) will have to shift somewhat northward. The two district that border the Sixth to the west which do not also border the Thitteenth are the Second District and the Fifteenth District. The Second District stretches all the way to Cincinnati in the west and the current representative is actually from Cincinnati. Additionally, a good chunk of the boundary between the Second District and the First District is in the middle of a pocket of Democratic precincts. Both of these features mean that the legislature will need to be very careful in shifting precincts from the Second District to the First which will place some limits on the ability of the Second District to expand eastward into the area being moved from the Sixth District.
While one possible solution would be to have the Fifteenth take up more of the precincts currently in the Sixth District, but, right now, the Fifteenth District is vacant with a large number of candidates running in the Republican primary (scheduled for August 3). If somebody from the eastern part of the Fifteenth wins the primary, that will create much more freedom in redrawing the lines. But if somebody from the western part of the district gets the nomination, that would make it harder. For now, my default assumption is that the Fifteenth will not shed much of its current area.
As far as the Voting Rights Act, the Third District is just under 50% minority. And the Eleventh District has an African-American majority. Particularly for the Eleventh District, that will limit how much the boundaries can shift. (Additionally, the Eleventh is a classic example of packing as many Democrats as possible into a district. The map makers will try to find Democratic precincts east of Cleveland and in the Akron area that can be added to the Eleventh District.)
The draft map based on the assumptions of what the Republicans will want do to that I came up with expanded the Fourteenth District a little bit to the south to take in the northeastern part of the current Thirteenth district. However, the big expansion in the eastern side of the current Thirteenth District came from the Sixth District which took all of Youngstown. The western part of the current Thirteenth District was split between the current Sixteenth District (renumbered as the Thirteenth District) and the Seventh District. A tiny part of the current Thirteenth near Akron went to the Eleventh District.
These changes to the Sixth District, Seventh District, and current Sixteenth District requires them to shed some current precincts. And the results is to shift the Second District eastward and the Fifteenth District slightly eastward and southward. Given how close the Fifteenth District is to its target population, the expansion of the Fifteenth does not add in too many new precincts or significantly change its footprint. Most of the larger change in area is a shift from the Sixth District to the Second District which, as discussed earlier, will cause the Second District to shed some precincts in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) to the First District. The legislature will be looking at the lines on a precinct-by-precinct basis so that as many Republican precincts as possible will go into the First District.
Elsewhere, the Ninth District will only need minor adjustments, the Twelfth District will expand to both the northwest and southeast, and the remaining Republican Districts (Fourth District, Fifth District, and Eighth District will rotate to the northeast to fill in the area that used to be in the Seventh District which currently is a horse shoe around the Cleveland-Akron area. While the new Seventh District will still resemble a U, it will be a much shorter U with the northwestern corner going mostly to the Fourth District and everything else on the west side shifting to fill in the gaps.
Now a map like the one described above is not without risks for the Republicans. Currently, the Republicans have twelve of the sixteen districts with the closest districts being the First District (53.2-45.4) and the Tenth District (53.2-45.2). The other ten districts are at least lean Republican (54% or more expected vote). The shedding of districts in Hamilton County by the Second District reduces the Republican edge in the First District to (51.7-46.9) which even though more of a toss-up is still a definite Republican advantage (just one that can’t afford an extreme candidate). On the other hand, the Second District moves from a lean Republican district (approximately 56%) to a safe Republican district (approximately 59%). The Fourth District, Fifth District, Eight District, the Fourteenth District, and Fifteenth District stay approximately the same as does the current Sixteenth/new Thirteenth District. The Sixth District and Seventh District become substantial closer shifting from solid districts to a safe districts. The Tenth District becomes slightly more Republican (moving from toss-up to Lean Republican). While it would be an even more obviously gerrymandered map, I would not be shocked if the Republicans consider trading some Democratic precincts in Hamilton County which would otherwise be in the First District with Republican precincts in Butler County which would otherwise be in the Eighth District. Currently, the First District does not cross-over into Butler County and the Eighth District does not cross-over into the Hamilton County, but if the Republicans do not care about observing County lines, this would be an easy way to beef up the First District as the Eighth District is currently the reddest district on my draft map. Making that adjustment resulted in a new First District that is just slightly redder than the current First District while the Eighth District stays the reddest district in the state. Other than the First District (which would be at 53.6-45.0), the other eleven Republican districts would range from an expected Republican vote of 54.3% in the Fourteenth District to an expected Republican vote of 65.1% in the Eighth District.
On the other hand, the closest Democratic district would be the Ninth District which would remain on the border between a safe district and a solid district. The need to add voters to the Eleventh District will bump the African-American citizen voting age population in that district slightly below 50% but it is still a minority-majority district. And the shifts in the Third also reduces the minority population by a tiny amount.
The bottom line is that geography in Ohio makes gerrymandering easy. The state is pretty much a rectangle with curves. Other than Cleveland, Toledo, and Cincinnati, most of the other population centers are in the middle of the state. Thus mapmakers can easily choose to link the medium sized cities together in one district or keep these Democratic islands apart. And for the most part, the current map tries to keep the Democratic islands apart which result in a narrow but clear Republican advantage in the swingier districts. Currently, seven of the twelve Republican districts in Ohio are between 53% expected vote for the Republican candidate and 57% for the expected Republican candidate with the other five districts have an expected Republican vote above 60. With the cross-county adjustments described above, all seven of the toss-up/lean Republican districts become redder with the Second District actually becoming the fourth most Republican district (safe bordering on solid). As noted above, the only two districts that become significantly bluer despite the new lines carving up a lean Democratic seat are the Sixth District and the Seventh District which, even under the new map, remain pretty safe for the Republicans. In short, there is every reason to expect a 12-3 map out of Ohio which is appalling as a proportional map would result in an 8-7 split. While the 8-7 split might require some creative line-drawing on the Democratic side, it’s not that hard to get to a 10-5 map by simply not splitting the Cincinnati area in two and expanding the current Thirteenth District into Akron rather than splitting it apart (or, in simpler terms, by trying to avoid unnecessary splits of counties).
Trying to draw a more favorable map for Democrats, I began by doing two things: First, there are three counties that are large enough to fully contain a district — Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Hamilton County (Cincinnati), and Franklin County (Columbus). In the current map, only Franklin contain fully contains a district (Third District). So I kept Cincinnati intact (which would force the two Republican representatives from the First and Second District into a primary) and drew a map that had eastern and central Hamilton County around Cincinnati in the First District and kept the Eleventh District in Cuyahoga County. That flipped the First District from a toss-up favoring the Republicans to a lean Democratic District. It did lower the African-American population in the Eleventh District Overall, African-Americans are still the largest population group but they are only a plurality and among the voting age population, there are slightly more whites than African-Americans. African-Americans should still have the majority of votes in the Democratic primary, and the district is solidly Democratic; so African-Americans should be able to elect their preferred candidate. These shifts force the Second District eastward and northward (taking some area from the Fifteenth District).
Second, I kept the Thirteenth District mostly intact and expanded it westward to Akron in Summit County. Making the numbers work for the Fourteenth District requires giving up some territory in the north, but going west to Akron makes the district a toss-up that borders on being a lean Democratic district. (The change in expected vote is only 03% in favor of the Republicans). With the Thirteenth District staying intact, the Seventh District and Sixteenth District merge (again forcing another pair of Republican incumbents into a primary).
Besides these two changes, I made changes to the Tenth District and Fifteenth District that make them significantly bluer. Instead of the Tenth District taking in the northern half of Fayette County (the county on the eastern end of the district), I turned the Tenth District north into the southern half of Clark County to take in some Democrats around Springfield. Instead of taking the Fifteenth District south from Columbus, I take it in more of the Columbus area (shifting the Third slightly northward — essentially taking Democratic precincts from the Twelfth District to allow the shifting of Democratic precincts in the south of the Third District to the Fifteenth).
The net result of the more Democratic map is two solid Democratic districts (Third District and Eleventh District), two lean Democratic districts (First District and Ninth District), two toss-up districts that favor Democrats (Thirteenth District and Fifteenth District), one toss-up district that favors Republicans (Tenth District), two lean Republican districts (Seventh District and Fourteenth District), and six solid Republican Districts (Second District, Fourth District, Fifth District, Sixth District, and Twelfth District). Basically a 9-6 map with an outside in which Democrats have an outside shot at 8-7 and the Republicans could get to 10-5. That compares to the current map which is 12-4 with Democrats having a very outside chance at 10-6 and the pro-Republican map that is 12-3 with Democrats having a very outside shot at 11-4.
At the end of the day, I expect another heavily gerrymandered map in Ohio which will all but guarantee that the lost seat will be a Democratic seat. But the fact that the lines in Ohio are drawn in such a fashion to assure that Democrats have three fewer seats than they would win in a fair map is another example of a major problem in American democracy. We remain the only major democracy that gives legislators the lead role in drawing maps. In every other country, the national legislative line are primarily drawn by non-partisan officials who have the obligation to draw fair maps. While there are states in which the Democrats have the advantage, the likely result of this round of redistricting will be more states like Ohio and the median district will probably be four percent more Republican than the country as a whole which is one of the main reasons why the Democrats will have to fight hard in 2022 to keep the House of Representatives.
