Michigan continues the series of states in the Great Lake Region that lost a seat in the House. Like Ohio and Pennsylvania, the Republicans won control of the state in 2010 and tried to create a map that slants things in favor of the Republicans. In response, voters in Michigan shifted responsibility to a bipartisan commission. The process is somewhat complicated and the final maps will be reviewed by the court for compliance with standards set forth in the state constitution governing the process which includes a fairness requirement.
The current maps would clearly fail the fairness standard. The three most lopsided districts are three solid Democratic districts (Twelfth District, Thirteenth District, and Fourteenth District) around Detroit which range from an expected Democratic vote of 64% in the Twelfth District to 79% in both the Thirteenth District and Fourteenth District. The most Republican district in the state is the Tenth District (expected Republican vote of 61%). As a result, the Democrats have an three solid districts and one lean district (Ninth District), and the Republicans have one solid district, one safe district (Fourth District), and three lean districts (First District, Second District, and Seventh District). Of the remaining five districts, two are toss-ups that slightly favor the Democrats (Fifth District and Eleventh District) and three are toss-ups that slightly favor the Republicans (Third District, Sixth District, and Eighth District). In short, the current map is an 8-6 map in favor of the Republicans even though the statewide numbers actually favor the Democrats. Despite the map favoring the Republicans, the current delegation is actually a 7-7 split because the Democrats currently hold the Eight District.
Currently, Michigan has two districts with African-American majorities (the Thirteenth District and the Fourteenth District). As noted above, as has often been the case when Republicans have drawn the maps, giving African-Americans a solid majority in districts often lead to districts that are packed with Democratic votes. The task for those drawing the maps will be how to make the urban districts less packed while still protecting the influence of African-Americans in these districts.
While the current maps call to mind the maps drawn by states like North Carolina, Ohio, and the legislature in Pennsylvania, the geography of Michigan call to mind states like Georgia and New York. Like Georgia and New York, the geography of Michigan is dominated by one city — Detroit. Wayne County (Detroit proper) and Malcomb and Oakland County (the northern suburbs) contain the entirety of four congressional districts (Ninth District, Eleventh District, Thirteenth District, and Fourteenth District) and parts of three other districts (Eighth District, Tenth District, and Twelfth District), Based on population, these three counties could contain four single-county districts Currently, only the Thirteenth District is a single-county district.
As readers should have come to expect, all of the current districts are short on population. The Third District (Grand Rapids and the area to its south in Central Michigan) is the closest but it is still over 20,000 people short. The biggest shortfalls are in two Democratic Districts — the Fifth District in east central Michigan and Thirteenth District (Detroit) which are both around 90,000 people short. In other words, there is no obvious place to eliminate a district. Since incumbent protection is not a permitted consideration (but will undoubtedly influence some commissioners), we could see multiple districts with two incumbents and some district with no incumbents. There is no obvious district that will be the one to go, so we are probably looking at gradual shifts starting in the First District in the northwest (Upper Peninsula) and Fourteenth District near Detroit meeting somewhere in the middle where the new districts will be half one current district and half another district. In my drafts, I will mostly keep the current numbers for the north half of the state and will designate how I am renumbering the southeast part of the state.
In the Detroit area, the current Twelfth District is moved so that it is entirely contained within Wayne County. The new Twelfth splits the part of the current Ninth District which is contained in Wayne County with the Thirteenth District getting the rest of the area taken from the Ninth District in Wayne County. To reduce the excess Democratic voters in the Thirteenth District, some of the Democratic precincts in the southern part of the Thirteenth District outside of Detroit are given to the Twelfth District. With careful line-drawing (i.e. giving Republicans to the Thirteenth District and Democrats to the Twelfth District), the Twelfth District would be a toss-up Democratic district (50,8-46.6). The Thirteenth shits a little to the north taking in part of the current Fourteenth. The remaining part of Wayne County currently in the Fourteenth District becomes part of the new Eleventh District (which has the current Fourteenth District in its core). The Thirteenth District remains a solid Democratic district but the expected Democratic vote declines to 75%
In Oakland County, given the very Democratic precincts in Wayne County, it will again take careful line-drawing between the new Eleventh District (comprised of the part of the current Fourteenth District in Oakland County and the western parts of Oakland County currently in the Eighth District and the Eleventh District) and the new Eighth District (consisting of what are currently the parts of the Ninth District and Eight District in eastern and central Oakland County. The new Eighth District also takes in a handful of precincts in western Macomb County. The new Eleventh District is still a majority-minority district, but African-Americans would no longer have the majority by themselves. The new Eleventh District is only 65% Democratic. The incumbents will not like the new maps in Oakland County as both the new Eighth District and new Eleventh District will contain two Democratic incumbents. The new Eighth District will be a toss-up district that favors the Democrats (50.8-46.6).
Macomb County is entirely redrawn so that the southern half of Macomb County is its own district. The new Ninth District will be almost exactly even (my program is showing the Democrats up by approximately 200 votes). But, if you are willing to move the Ninth District into Wayne County (picking up some very Democratic precincts (which would allow the Eleventh to pick up some heavily Republican precincts in Oakland County from the Eighth which would pick up some lean Democratic districts), you could end up with the Eighth District being slightly more Democratic (51.4-46.0) and the Ninth District being significantly more Democratic (50.5-46.8) while not putting the Eleventh District at risk (62.8-34.9). While the Eleventh would no longer be a minority-majority district, African-Americans would still probably be able to get the candidate of their choice by being a majority in the Democratic primary (40% overall in the voting age population which should translate to around two-thirds of the primary vote).
Expanding westward from the Detroit area, the Seventh District is redrawn to take Ann Arbor and eastern Washtenaw County from the Twelfth District and Ingham County (Lansing and East Lansing) from the Eighth District. The only part of the current Seventh District in the new Seventh District is the western part of Washtenaw County and the northern part of Jackson County. Basically, like the new Ninth District, this district would be an open seat. This new district would be a solidly Democratic (65.1-32.0) district linking the two college “towns” of Ann Arbor (the University of Michigan) and East Lansing (Michigan State) into one district.
The loss of precincts in Macomb County forces the Tenth District to vastly expand geographically. My draft map has the new Tenth District expanding northward to Presque Isle County and Cheboygan County and westward to Roscommon County, Bay County, and Gladwin County. All of these changes do not substantially alter the partisan breakdown of the Tenth District, but the current representative may face a primary challenge with some of her base in Macomb County going to other districts and her getting a lot of new voters currently in the First District, Fourth District and Fifth District.
With the changes to the Seventh District, the Sixth District expands eastward to take in all of the southern border of Michigan. The changes convert the Sixth District from a toss-up favoring the Republicans to a safe Republican district (expected vote of 58.3%).
The Fifth District expands southward to take in Livingston County from the current Eighth District and more of Saginaw County form the Fourth District while giving up its part of Tuscola County to the Tenth District. The Fifth District remains a toss-up favoring Democrats , but it is a little bit closer (49-3.-47.9 instead of the current 52.4-44.4).
The Third District gives up Calhoun County to the Fourth District and Sixth District , Ionia County to the Fourth, and its part of Montcalm County) to the Fourth. In exchange, the Third District picks up Kalamazoo County from the Sixth District. Within Kent County, there is an exchange of precincts with the Second District. This flips the Third District from a toss-up district favoring the Republicans to a toss-up district favoring the Democrats (53.0-43.4). In the new map, northern Kent County is in the Second District, southwestern Kent County (including Grand Rapids) is in the Third District and southeastern Kent County is in the Fourth District.
The Fourth District is shifted slightly to the south to take in part of Calhoun County and Eaton County and Ionia County requiring it to give up its northwestern corner to the First District. Similarly, the Second District shifts slightly southward and gives up its northern counties to the First District.
The bottom line of the map I came up with was three solid Democratic districts (Seventh District, Eleventh District, and Thirteenth District), one safe Democratic district (Twelfth District) compared to one solid Republican District (Tenth District), two safe Republican Districts (Second District and Sixth District), and two lean Republican Districts (First District and Fourth District). The remaining four districts are toss-up although the Democrats would be the favorite in all four. The Third District is the safest district (with Democrats expected to get 53% of the vote) with the Eighth District having an expected Democratic vote of 51.4% of the vote and the Ninth District having an expected Demcoratic vote of 50.5%. The Fifth District would be closest to a toss-up with Democrats only having a plurality of the vote and an expected margin of approximately 5,500 votes. Incumbents would not like this map. The Seventh District and the Ninth District would be open seats. The incumbents from the current Sixth and Seventh would be drawn together in a Republican primary for the Sixth District. The incumbents from the Fourteenth and Eighth would be drawn into a Democratic primary in the new Eleventh District, and the incumbents from the Ninth and Eleventh District would be drawn into a Democratic primary in the new Eighth District.
If the Democrats selected the right candidates, this map would represent a gain of one Democrat and a loss of two Republicans, but the wrong candidates or a bad year could lead to an 9-4 Republican advantage. In other words, if you believe that voters should choose their representatives, this is a good map. If you want a gerrymander in your favor, this is a bad map.
