Illinois concludes our tour of the midwestern states that lost a seat. Like New York, Illinois is dominated by one city (Chicago) and its suburbs. Eleven districts are at least partially in Cook County (Chicago) and another two are partially in a county adjoining Cook County leaving five districts for “downstate.”
Illinois’s current map has an overwhelming number of split precincts. The current map has four minority-majority district. Of those four districts, two (First District and Second District) have African-American majorities, one (Seventh District) has an African-American plurality, and one has a Hispanic majority (Fourth District).
The current map has six solid Democratic districts, two safe Democratic districts, two lean Democratic districts, and one toss-up that favor the Democrats. On the other side, Republicans have one solid district (Fifteenth District), one safe district (Eighteenth District), one lean district (Sixteenth District), and four toss-ups that favor the Republicans. Right now, Democrats hold three of the five toss-up seats.
In Illinois, the legislature draws the lines. As such, Democrats are in control of the process in Illinois. As in most of the states that lost seats, every one of the existing districts are short on population — ranging from around 11,000 down in the Fifth District to around 69,000 down in the Seventeenth District. The Democratic goal in drawing the lines will be to move Republicans from the swing districts to the most Republican seats. In other words, the goal would be a map that has two solid Republican districts and one safe districts and, at most, one toss-up that favors the Republican candidate.
There are two districts that are prime candidates for being butchered. The Seventeenth District is a favors Republican toss-up currently represented by a Democrat who, has announced that she will not be running for re-election. The Sixteenth District is represented by an anti-Trump Republican which may reduce his pull with the Republicans in the legislature as they fight to protect incumbents.
As with other states with large cities, one complicating factor is the fact that my program does not identify home precincts of incumbents. I have tried to keep the Chicago part of the current districts intact for the incumbents that live in Chicago.
Given that the Chicago area favors the Democrats, I started in downstate Illinois with the old Eighteenth District (renumbered as the Seventeenth District). It expanded to the north (taking in the red counties of Henderson, Warren, and Mercer, and parts of the red counties Knox and Fulton from the current Seventeenth District) and to the south (taking in the red counties of Calhoun, Greene, Jersey, Macoupin and Montgomery and parts of mostly red counties Madison and Bond from the Thirteenth District). Along with the territory described below that the current Eighteenth gives to the Thirteenth District, the net effect is to make the new Seventeenth district about two percent better for Republicans than the current Eighteenth District upping it from a safe district to a solid district.
Having lost most of the western half of the current district to the new Seventeenth District, the Thirteenth expands to the south taking in the rest of Madison County from the current Twelfth District and expanding southward to take in the Democratic part of St. Clair County (mostly the suburbs of St. Louis) and taking in the rest of Bond County from the Twelfth District , taking in Democratic parts of the Springfield area from the old Eighteenth District and parts of Fayette and Shelby County from the old Fifteenth District. Meanwhile it yields the northeast part of the current district to other districts. The net effect is to flip the Thirteenth from a toss-up that favors the Republicans (by about 2.5%) to one that favors the Democrats by about 0.4%).
Those shifts in the northwest corner of the the Twelfth District, however, makes the Twelfth District much more red. And to get up to the target number, it will need to take in the southern two-thirds of the Fifteenth District (up to Moutrie County, Cumberland County, and Edgar County) as well as taking Platt County from the old Thirteenth District. The effect is to take the Twelfth from a district that was on the border between a toss-up district favoring Republicans and a lean Republican district to a district that is solidly Republican as the district becomes 14% redder.
But, having taken a very red chunk of southeastern Illinois from the old Fifteenth, that results in the Fifteenth and Twelfth District flipping places. The new Fifteenth District gets part of Macon County along with Dewitt County, part of Platte County, and the rest of Champaign County (home to the University of Illinois) from the old Thirteenth , most of McClean County (and part of Woodford County) from the old Eighteenth, the southern part of the old Sixteenth District (the rest of Ford County, part of Livingston County, and all of Iroquois County), and even part of the Second District in Kankakee County. The net effect is to make the Fifteenth District around 15% bluer taking it to the borderline between a toss-up and lean Republican district.
All told, the net effect in the four southern Illinois districts is effectively taken a toss-up district that favors Republicans (and has a Republican representative) into a toss-up that favors the Democrats. While the lines on those districts have moved north, there really is not much that can be done to make Democratic districts in downstate Illinois. The new Sixteenth District is formed from the southern half of the current Sixteenth District and Seventeenth District. It also takes some of Wii County from the Second District and the First District. The net effect is to take a lean Republican district (Sixteenth District) and a dead even toss-up district that very slightly favors the Republicans (Seventeenth District) and creates a toss-up district that very slightly favors the Democrats by adding in just enough Democratic precincts from the neighboring Democratic districts.
In turn, the northern parts of the old Sixteenth District and the central part of the old Seventeenth District bump over to the old Fourteenth District. However, the Fourteenth District loses its old northern part. The net effect is to make the Fourteenth District — a toss-up that currently favors the Republicans (even though it has a Democratic representative currently) — approximately 1% closer.
The Eleventh District has to stretch out to the northwest to take in the rest of Winnebago County, part of DeKalb County, and part of Boone County from the old Sixteenth District. Likewise, the Tenth District has to stretch westward to take in the last bit of the old Sixteenth District and the northern part of the old Fourteenth District. Both of these changes convert what had been safe Democratic districts into districts that border between toss-up and lean Democratic.
And that leaves the Chicago area for the last nine districts. Playing around (while keeping incumbents in their districts) and considering the parts that still remain from the Tenth, Eleventh, and Fourteenth, it was possible to keep incumbents from facing each other and still have a favorable map.
The First District stayed a solid Democratic district with an African-American majority. The Second District stayed a solid Democratic district with a minority-majority, but African-Americans dropped to a plurality. The Third District got a little bit closer but stayed a lean Democratic district. The Fourth District stayed a solid Democratic district with a Hispanic majority. The Fifth stayed a solid Democratic district. The Sixth District stayed a toss-up district that favors the Democrats but moved closer to the lean line (Democrats gaining approximately two percent). The Seventh District stayed a solid Democratic district with an African-American plurality. The Eight District became a little redder and moved to straddle the toss-up/lean Democratic line. The Ninth District stayed solidly Democratic.
The bottom line of the map was six solid Democratic districts, one lean Democratic district. four toss-up districts that strongly favor the Democrats, two toss-up districts that slightly favor the Democrats, one toss-up districts that slightly favors the Republicans, one toss-up district that strongly favors the Republicans, and two solid Republican districts. So from an 11-7 map, the new map should be a 13-4 map with realistic chances of anything from 11-6 to 14-3. Given that Democrats hold two seats that favor the Republicans (creating a 13-5 delegation), the new map will not necessarily prevent the loss of a seat. However, if as is likely, the Republicans goes with a Trumpy Republican over the current incumbent in the Sixteenth District, the new Sixteenth District would be set up for a Democratic pick-up and the new Fourteenth District is slightly more favorable for the Democratic incumbent than the current district so we might be able to keep that toss-up seat resulting in a 13-4 delegation, and the new Thirteenth will also be a pick-up possibility.
My bottom line is that I don’t think that it’s possible to draw lines in downstate Illinois to get more than one toss-up district that favors the Democrats and even that requires a narrow district stretching from Springfield to the St. Louis suburbs. In the north, its possible to cobble together two winnable (but ones in which we would be underdogs) from the current Fourteenth, Sixteenth, and Seventeenth districts, but the new lines will weaken some Democratic incumbents in the elven Chicago area seats. So the legislature will decide how much of a risk that they want to take. (Of course, they will have little choice as it is likely that northern Illinois will have to shrink by a seat so either they carve up the three seats that currently favor the Republicans or they surrender one of the eleven seats that favor the Democrats.)
One caution, it might be possible to swing some precincts in Chicago to more marginal seats. Not knowing the exact homes of the current representatives from Chicago, I kept the Chicago parts of their districts mostly intact. This might make some of the districts with narrow Democratic leads (Third, Sixth, Eighth, Tenth, and Eleventh) safer and increase the chances of picking up the Sixteenth. I am not sure without redoing the map substantially that it is possible to make both the Fourteenth District and Sixteenth District favorable for the Democrats.
The next and last state on our list is California. Given the size of California, it’s going to take a little while to get done. The Census Bureau is current scheduled to release the actual numbers for redistricting on August 16 in the “legacy” format (the format used in 2010) with a follow-up release at the end of September in a new, supposedly more user-friendly format. Once the states get the data in mid-August, the states will be in a rush to get the new lines drawn in time for the 2022 elections — easier in the states that simply use the legislature (although several of them will need special sessions for redistricting). Each of the states that use commissions have various rules governing the procedures for choosing the commission and then drawing the lines. In some states, these rules may slow down the process which could result in the final stages of the process running into the deadlines for the 2022 elections.
