International Election season is fast approaching. Today’s post is on Australia. As of today, we do not have an exact date for the election in Australia, but we are pretty sure that it will be May 7, May 14, or May 21. Or to be more exact, we are certain that Australia will have a Senate election on one of those three dates, and are 99% certain that there will be a House election on the same date.
As with other countries, it is not that any one thing about Australia’s elections is unique. It’s how these features combine that make it unique. In this case, the issue is the different rules for Senate elections and for House elections. For Senate elections, there are some similarities between how the U.S. and Australia structure the Senate. In both countries, each state gets the same number of Australia (twelve per state in Australia with the territories getting two seats each), the terms for Senators elected from the states are six years (with the term for territorial senators in Australia being three years), and terms are staggered. What this means is that, every three years, Australia has a half-Senate election (six senators per state and the territorial senators). Unlike the U.S. there is no set date for a Senate election. Instead, it can be called for any time in the last year of the term (although the winners do not take office until the new term begins). As the new term begins on July 1, the last possible date to hold the election (and be certain that the results will be finalized) is May 21. And, at this point in time, even if the election were called the second that this post goes live, the earliest that the election could be held would be May 7 (but if the election is not called by Monday, that date would no longer be available).
On the other hand, while there are some similarities with the U.S. House, the Australian House is more like the Canadian House. The House is composed of districts (Division in Australia) which are apportioned to the states based on population. Like the U.S. House, there is a minimum number of Divisions (five) per state. Currently, the only state which gets extra seats under this rule is Tasmania. Unlike the U.S., which only reapportions every ten years, in Australia, this reapportionment occurs after every House election. If a state’s total number of seats changes, or any districts (called Divisions in Australia) are too large or small (i.e. outside the permitted deviation) or seven years has passed since the last time that the lines have been redrawn, a non-partisan committee of civil servants redraws the lines for that State. Australia’s term length for the House is three years — exactly in the middle between Canada and the U.S. However, like in Canada, that term is only the maximum term, and the government can call an election early.
The issue for election scheduling is that the Prime Minister can wait until the end of the term to call a new election. Thus, as the term for the House does not expire until July, the House election could take place as late as September. The tradition in Australia is that, normally, Australia tries to hold half-Senate elections at the same time as House elections. So, while it is possible that the House election might not take place until September, it is more likely that it will take place in May along with the Senate election.
The main reason why no election has been called yet is that the governing “Coalition” of the Liberal Party and National Party is not that popular. Current polls have it down by about ten percent to the Labour Party on the two-party preferential vote. (As frequent readers know, both “Coalition” and Liberal are not completely accurate labels. The Liberal Party is a right of center-party with a primarily suburban base. The National Party is a conservative party with a rural base. Outside of Queensland, where the two parties are formally merged, and Western Australia where the two parties do not cooperate), the Coalition is a long-standing working relationship between the two parties where they essentially agree not to compete and run a unified slate for Senate elections.
Australia’s elections involve two different forms of preferential voting. The House members are elected by Division with the elections using what in the U.S. is called “ranked-choice voting.” Essentially, the voters rank each candidate with the vote going to the top-ranked candidate still in the running. So, in the first round, a person’s vote goes to that person’s first choice. Those votes are totaled, and the last placed candidate is eliminated with the votes of those who supported that candidate being transferred to each voter’s second choice until one candidate has the majority of the votes. On election night, three initial counts are released — the first-preference vote, the two-candidate preferred vote (redistribution to the two leading candidates), and the two-party preferred vote between the Coalition and Labour (which typically is the same as the two-candidate preferred count in most Divisions but there are some exceptions). Polling prior to the election typically asks about both the first choice and the two-party preferred vote.
For the Senate, Australia uses Single Transferable Vote. Essentially, each Australian has one vote for Senator and the top six candidates win (or top two in the territories). The difference between ranked-choice voting and single transferable voting is that, in addition to transferring the votes of the losing candidates, if the top candidate gets more votes than needed to win (essentially one-seventh of the vote), any excess votes are transferred to other candidates. This gets rather complicated and is handled by computers.
Because of these two systems, the results of the House and Senate elections tend to be slightly different. For the House, with the exception of several Divisions with locally popular independents, almost all House members are from the two main groups/parties. Thus, typically one party will get a majority. However, if the election is very close, just enough independents and third-party could win to leave no party with a majority.
The Single Transferable Vote System tends to result in a 3-2 or 2-2 split in the states with third-parties picking up the remainder of the seats. In the territories, a 1-1 split is almost guaranteed. Because thirty-six seats are not up for election, we know the breakdown of those thirty-six Senators — 17 Liberal/National; 11 Labour; 6 Greens; and 2 others. Unless Labour can get four Senators in some states, it is mathematically impossible for Labour to get a majority. But that has become the new normal in the Australian Senate with no party ever having a majority. On the other hand, the Senate is not a completely equal partner in Australia. The government is chosen based on who has the majority in the House, and, if the Senate just blocks the legislation passed by the House, the House can force a double dissolution election in which an entirely new Senate is elected along with an entirely new House. So if the government feels popular enough, it can just force new elections if the Senate does not back down.
We will see how things change between now and Mid-May. As things stand today, the projections are for a swing of near twenty seats. Like with Germany’s election last year, this swing would result in the replacement of a conservative government with a progressive government which would be more likely to consider significant steps on climate change and other environmental issues. On relations with the U.S., outside of climate issues, the results of the election should not make a big difference.
Update — One of the things that has been holding up the election is an on-going dispute between the national party and some factions of the state party in New South Wales for the governing Liberal-National Coalition. In Australia, like most other democracies, there is no primary, and candidates are selected by local party committees. When the New South Wales party had problems selecting candidates in certain divisions, the national party got involved. Those who disagreed with the selections went to court to claim that the national party involvement meant that the tentative nominees (candidates are not officially nominated until the election is called, but the “pre-selected” candidates are almost always nominated barring something coming up at the last minute) were not valid. On Friday, the last appeal was rejected. As a result of this delay, there are only two dates left for a possible election — May 14 or May 21. And those dates will narrow down to one in forty-eight hours. In short, we are looking at a very compact campaign with a likely election date of May 21.
