By the time that polls close in Arkansas at 7:30 p.m. Central ST, we should be starting to get votes from the early states, but most of the key races will still be classified as “too early to call.” Arkansas has become so red over the past two decades that none of the races are likely to be close. The big races will be the ballot issue. From the right is a proposition to require supermajorities for propositions in future elections and a provision enshrining a version of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act in the Arkansas Constitution. As we have seen at the federal level, this Free Exercise Clause on steroids will cause significant problems in Arkansas as everything will become somebody’s religious belief. Arkansas will also vote on legalizing marijuana.
At 8:00 p.m. CST, polls will close in the remaining parts of Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas (with those races covered in Part 2 of the preview). Polls will close for the entire state in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
Arizona will feature several key races. At the state office level, Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State are all open seats. The Republicans have nominated Trumpist candidates for these positions who refuse to commit to recognizing the election results in 2024. Particularly for governor, they have nominated a media celebrity who is not qualified. But these races are currently too close to call. For Senate, the Republicans have also nominated an extremist. It looks like Senator Mark Kelly will hold onto the seat, but the seat is probably the third most likely pickup for the Republicans after Nevada and Georgia. If the Republicans have a good night, that seat could flip.
This cycle, the redistricting commission drew lines that were favorable for Republicans in Arizona. The current split is five Democrats to four Republicans. With the new lines, it is unlikely that the Democrats will pick up any seats, and the Republicans have good chances to pick up one or two seats from the Second and Sixth districts.
There are several interesting propositions on the ballot in Arizona including some voter ID provisions and, like in Arkansas, a proposal to require supermajorities for future propositions.
In Colorado, Democrats are likely to retain the statewide offices and the U.S. Senate seat. Heading into the election, Democrats have a 4-3 advantage in the House delegation and there is a new seat after the 2020 Census. There are two swing seats in the new lines, the Seventh (currently held by a Democrat) and the new Eighth. In most years, this will lead to a 4-4 split, but both parties have a shot at winning five seats. There is an outside chance that voters in the Third might be tired enough of the clown show that surrounds Representative Boebert, but it is more likely than not that she will be returned to serve as a loose cannon in the Republican caucus.
Iowa has traditionally tried to have competitive house districts. The drift of the state to the right may result in only two of the four seats being competitive. The national environment means that there is a solid chance that Republicans will pick up the Third district to win all of the seats. While Senator Grassley should hold on to win, some polls seem to indicate that his advanced age might cost him just enough votes for the Democrats to take this seat. Simply put, it is difficult for Republicans to be complaining about the advanced age of an 80-year old in the White House without undermining someone who will be in his nineties for most of a six-year term. Senator Grassley will probably hold on, but the thought that the Republicans were safer if Senator Grassley sought a new term might prove to be wrong. Iowa also has a Second Amendment-type ballot issue, but the U.S. Supreme Court has essentially undercut this proposition by adopting a more pro-gun standard under the federal constitution than this proposal would create in the Iowa Constitution.
Louisiana is a hard state to project because it uses what is typically called a “jungle primary.” In this system, there is no primary and all candidates run on one ballot. If nobody gets a majority, there is a runoff several weeks later. It is likely that Republicans will hold the Senate seat but the current 5-1 majority in the Congressional delegation (at least for this cycle). (If the Supreme Court follows the Voting Rights Act in the Alabama case, it will also impact the Louisiana map.) However, there is a real chance that other Republicans will pick enough votes in several of these races to send them to a runoff.
In Minnesota, Democrats are likely to hold onto the state-wide offices. The House delegation is currently split 4-4. That will likely stay the same, but, in a Republican wave, the Second District could flip.
Nebraska is a red state, and the Republicans avoided a potential disaster in their primary. As such, the Republicans should win the state-wide offices. The real battle in Nebraska is always for the Second district. While Omaha is not liberal by the standards of the rest of the country, there are just enough moderates and liberals to keep this seat competitive. The Republicans are likely to keep this seat, but it is one of those seats in which a strong pro-Choice turnout could lead to an upset.
New Mexico is a state in which Democrats took a gamble. If there is a very large red wave, the new lines could put the Third District at risk. But the new lines turn the First District into a swing seat. As such, New Mexico is one of those states in which a Democrat pickup is a real possibility. The First District is one of the twenty or so seats that could determine control of the House.
Democrats are worried about New York because Democrats worry. Barring a very big red wave, Democrats will keep the state-wide offices. and the U.S. Senate seat. The real problem is that the new House lines are not good for Democrats. The House delegation is currently 19-8 in favor of the Democrats. With New York having lost one seat, it looks like the likely results are 15-7 with four races up for grabs. The Democrats seem to be leading in the Seventeenth and Nineteenth (but the close race in the Seventeenth makes this the second straight election in which the Democratic campaign chair has had to focus on their own race down the stretch, something that does not help the national effort), but the Third and the Fourth seem to be pure tossups.
Wisconsin will continue its recent trend of being a state in which it may take days to know the result. All of the state-wide races are too close to call. The Republicans would like to regain the governor’s office so that they can create mayhem ahead of the 2024 elections. Democrats would like to kick seditious conspirator Ron Johnson out of the Senate. The Senate race is probably number three on the Democrat target list, but it is beginning to look a lot like the old days when Jesse Helms was running in North Carolina — a seat that always looks vulnerable but a candidate who manages to eke out a narrow win in the end. In the House, the new lines make it likely that the Republicans will gain a seat in the Third District.
Finally, there is Wyoming. Liz Cheney’s loss in the primary means that the traditionalists in the Republican party will lose this seat to the Party of Trump. That is going to mean real problems for the Republican caucus in 2023. But the Republicans seem to want a circus rather than a caucus that can actually pass legislation.
In short, the highlights of this segment of the evening will be the governor’s races in Arizona and Wisconsin and the Senate races in Arizona and Wisconsin with an outside shot at the Senate race in Iowa becoming interesting. At the House level keep an eye on Arizona Second, Arizona Sixth, Colorado Seventh, Colorado Eighth, Iowa Third, Minnesota Second, Nebraska Second, New Mexico Third, New York Third, New York Fourth, New York Seventeenth, and New York Nineteenth.
