By 9 p.m. Central ST, we will be getting some results from the early states which will give us some idea of how the night is going with a strong emphasis on the some. As noted in Part 1 of this series, every state treats the counting of mail-in votes. In some states, like Missouri and Texas, mail-in votes are likely to be the first results reported. In other states, like Michigan, those votes are likely to reported after the election day results. And for election day results, precinct sizes (more importantly the number of voters per election judge) and other factors have historically resulted in longer lines at closing time in urban area. When combined with the number of precincts in urban areas, in early states, rural areas are likely to report a greater share of their results in the first couple of hours. Both of these factors distort the conclusiveness of early vote counts (which is why the best analysts start looking at what vote is still outstanding — both where that vote is and the total number of votes — in forecasting whether it is possible to call the race). But by this time of the evening, there is some hint at the level of turnout in the areas that tend to vote Democratic and the areas that vote Republican and which way swing areas are swinging.
In turn, this information gives us some idea of the accuracy of pre-election polls. In viewing pre-election polls, there are three things to remember. First, in viewing them, you should focus on two things — margins and the size of the “undecided” voters. In every poll, there will be some undecided voters (and, because voters tend not to want to waste votes, the supporters of third-party candidates should be treated as undecided as a significant share of them will move to one of the two major candidates by election day). Because undecided voters will not split 50-50, a large pool of undecided voters makes the margin less reliable. An eight percent lead with ten percent undecided is more likely to hold than a twelve percent lead with twenty percent undecided. On the other hand, it is likely that both candidates will pick up some undecideds. So both candidates are likely to end up with something higher than their last poll number. Second, in looking at the margin, every poll has a margin of error (typically between three percent and four percent). That margin of error applies to each candidate. Which means, in theory, that even a well-constructed poll can be off on the margin by six or seven percent.. Part of the error is that every pollster has their model on who is likely to vote and how to weight responders to overcome response bias. Some years the actual pool of voters is bluer than the model shows and in other years the actual pool of voters is redder than the model shows. Finally, a poll is a snapshot in time. Events occurring after the poll is taken will move a small percentage of voters (both undecided voters and voters who were tentatively supporting a candidate). In short, it is highly probable that the polls will be off by some margin. And while the direction and size of the error will not be uniform nationally, the early returns can give an idea of the direction and size of the error.
As things stand four days out, the polls seem to be indicating a red ripple which will switch a narrow Democratic majority in the House to a narrow Republican majority in the House. The Senate could go either way and the hold of state offices could swing either way as well.
Now onto the states with 9 p.m. closing times. There are only a handful of states with 9 p.m. closing times. Most of the Pacific ST states will close at 10 p.m. Central ST (8:00 p.m. local time). There are only a handful of Mountain ST states and they split between those closing at 8:00 p.m. CST (7:00 p.m. MST) and those closing at 9:00 p.m. CST (8:00 p.m. MST). In this hour, there will be partial closings in Idaho, North Dakota, and Oregon. Oregon will be covered in the next part as most of the state will close at 10:00 p.m. CST, but most of Idaho and North Dakota will close at 9:00 p.m. All of the polls will close in Montana, Nevada, and Utah.
For the most part, this group of states is very, very red. It would take a very blue wave for Democrats to have hopes at anything in Idaho, Montana, or North Dakota. Montana did pick up a new seat which will almost certainly go Republican. Montana has two ballot issues of note. One requires a warrant for electronic data. There have been several of these measures around the country. On paper, this change merely makes express in state constitutional language what they U.S. Supreme Court has found to be implicit in the Fourth Amendment. Of course, having the express language in the state constitution protects from the U.S. Supreme Court changing its mind and might lead to the state courts giving additional protections to electronic communications. The other measure is abortion-related and would make clear that, if the abortion results in the delivery of a live child, the providers have the obligation to provide health care to preserve the life of the infant. North Dakota has two ballot propositions of issue — one would create term limits for the state legislature and governor (a very bad idea which is likely to pass) and one would legalize marijuana.
Moving to the two states with potentially competitive races. In Utah, you have incumbent seditious conspirator Mike Lee running against independent traditional republican Evan McMullin. Senator Lee is favored to be reelected, especially as the R label on the ballot may fool some voters into believing he actually believes in the traditional values of the Republican party. But Mr. McMullin still has an outside chance. For now, Mr. McMullin is saying that, if elected, he will not caucus with either party. That will probably change as the two caucuses control committee assignments and my expectation is that he will caucus with the Republicans. Thanks to gerrymandering, the House seats are probably out of reach.
The real state of interest in this batch will be Nevada. Nevada is a lean Democratic swing state. The Republicans have nominated son of privilege Adam Laxalt (with well-known politicians on both sides of his family tree) who has opted to take a Trumpist stand as winning is more important than standing for the values of his family to take on Senator Catherine Masto. This state is the number one target for Republicans. If Democrats can hold here (and in Georgia), we will probably see Democrats pickup seats in the Senate. Right now, if you are looking at the swing states in order of most liley to go Republican, the list would be Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Ohio, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Hampshire making Nevada and Georgia the two states that will determine the majority. There are also Trumpists running for state-wide offices. All of these state-wide races are too close to call and will depend on turnout.
Democrats currently control three of the four House seats, but two of these are swing seats. And Democrats drew the lines to make the third seat a little less solidly blue in an attempt to shore up the two swing seats. These three seats will play a crucial role in who controls the House. In a red wave, the Democrats could lose all three seats. If the Democrats could hold onto all three seats, they might just keep the majority in a House.
There are three key ballot propositions in Nevada. The first proposition would expand constitutional protections to sexual orientation. The second proposition would increase the state minimum wage to a paltry $12 an hour. The final proposition would establish a top five primary (similar to Alaska’s top four system) with ranked choice voting in the general election. The result of the third proposition may be a key tell for the future, assuming that democracy survives the 20224 election. If more states go to an open primary with ranked choice voting in the general, we might see fewer Sarah Palins and Lauren Boeberts in office.
That brings an end to the 9:00 p.m. summary. The last part of this series will focus on the remaining five states. (Hint for those who have not been tracking which states have been covered, they all border the Pacific Ocean.)
