Finally, we reach the end of the evening.  Five hours after the first polls closed in Kentucky and Indiana, we reach 10 p.m. Central ST.  At this time the last polls close in North Dakota and Idaho (covered in part 4).  Likewise, the remainder of the polls (representing the vast majority of the state) close in Oregon.  And, even though both states have a significant number of mail-in votes (as is true for several of the western states discussed in earlier posts), the polls will close in California and Washington.

I’ll start with Washington.  Washington has a top two primary (as does California).  Unlike Califronia, all of the races feature a Democrat against a Republican.  While there are some polls showing a potentially competitive race for Senate, I’m just not seeing it.  Washington is too blue in recent years.  Even in a red wave, Senator Patty Murray should win.  Most of the polls making this state seem close come from polls sponsored by Republican-affiliated groups.  While they may end up being right, even they are merely showing a close race.  The current split in the House is seven Democrats and three Republicans.  There are three seats that could flip.   The Third District is currently held by the Republicans, but, in the primay, the incumbent representative barely finished in third after having the integrity to vote to impeach President Trump.  Whether moderate Republicans will vote for the Democrat in the general and flip this seat — for the next two years to the Democrats — is the big question.  In a red wave, the Republicans have a chance at taking the Eighth District and the Tenth District.  The Tenth District (basically a swatch southwest of Seattle from Tacoma to Olympia) is more likely to stay Democratic.  The Eighth District (an exurban/rural district to the east of Seattle) looks more like a swing district, but Democrats are still favored.  Because of mail-in ballots, it typically takes several days to figure out who wins close races.

Moving south to Oregon, the big race is for Governor.  And it’s a classic argument for ranked-choice voting.  Business interests have pushed a moderate Democrat to run as an independent, and this candidate may take just enough votes to allow the Republicans to win by a narrow plurality.  The race is a pure toss-up.   Senator Ron Wyden is solidly favored to be reelected which might just have enough coattails to allow the Democrat to win the open race for governor.  In the House, the current split is four Democrats to one Republican with one new seat.  In the Fifth District, the Democratic incumbent lost in the primary to a progressive challenger.  There is a risk that the progressive nominee is too progressive for the district which runs from the suburbs of Portland into a rural part of the state to the south and east of Portland.  The Sixth District is the “new” district and is a little bit geographically smaller than the Fifth, but like the Fifth it runs from the immediate suburbs of Portland into the rural areas to the south and west of Portland.    The Republicans also have outside chances in the Fourth District, an open seat, which runs along the Pacific Coast in the area to the south and west of the Fifth and Sixth.  If the Democrats get all three of the seats, they could potentially keep the House.  In a red wave, the Republicans could gain all three seats.

There are some interesting ballot propositions in Oregon.  One creates a right to health care.  With this proposition, a lot will depend on how courts apply it to specific claims that might arise in future cases.  The second is intriguing as it bars members of the legislature from running if they have ten unexcused absences from the legislature in their current term.  Finally, one proposition would set up a permitting system for extended gun clips (those holding more than ten rounds of ammunition).

Finally, there is California.   Democrats should win all of the statewide races.  Teh big question will be how big will Governor Gavin Newsome’s margin be as he is hoping to position himself as a potential candidate in 2024 if President Biden opts against running again.  The Senate race is actually two elections — a special election for the last two months of what was Vice President’s Harris term and the regular election for a full term.

California lost a seat in the House.  As such, there is guaranteed to be some change from the current 42-11 split.  The Republicans failed to advance to the general in six districts.  Right now, the best guess is that there are five solidly Republican seats another four seats which are likely Republican.  On the Democratic side, including the six sure seats in which there are other two Democrats or a Democrat and a third party candidate on the ballot, there are thirty-five solidly Democratic seats.  Of the remaining eight seats, four seats are likely to stay Democratic even in a red wave — the Twenty-first, Twenty-sixth, Forty-seventh, and Forty-ninth.  The one that seems most at risk is the Forty-seventh District (Representative Porter).  I am having trouble seeing even this district as being at risk.  In the primary, Democrats got a majority of all of the votes cast in these districts and turnout should be better in the general than in the primary.  That leaves four competitive seats — the Ninth, Thirteenth, Twenty-second, and Twenty-seventh.  The closest is probably the Twenty-second.  This is one of two seats (the other being in Washington) in which a Republican who voted for impeachment survived to the general.  If Trumpers skip this race, the Democrats could pick up the seat.  If not, while the district is closely divided, the Republicans should hold this seat with the net effect that the seat lost in California will be a Democratic seat.  If the Democrats pick up this seat, the effect will be that the seat lost in California will be a Republican seat.  The only other Republican seat that could go to the Democrats is the Twenty-seventh.  This seat has seen several close races in the past several cycles.  If the Democrats are to gain any seats in this election, this seat is one of the more likely pickups.  And winning this seat might just offset losses elsewhere.  The Democrats should hold the Ninth and Thirteenth.  If they lose either, the Republicans are likely having a good evening nationally.

While California will, as always, have several ballot propositions including some on legalizing gambling in some locations, the most significant is one protecting the freedom of choice.  It is likely that this proposition will pass, but, if Republicans gain control nationally after 2024, they will try to pass federal right to life legislation.

The polls in Hawaii will close at 11:00 p.m. Central ST.    While the governor’s seat is open, it is likely that Democrats will hold that seat.  It is also likely that Democrats will keep the Senate seat and both House seats.

The last state on the list is Alaksa.  Most of the polls in the state will close at 11:00 p.m. Central ST, but some (in the Aleutians) will close at midnight Central ST.  With the new ranked-choice top four system, the key races may take a week or more to get final results.  In both the Senate race and the House race, there is a Trumpist running — Sarah Palin for Representative and Kelly Tshibaka for Senate.  There is also a real Republican running in both races — Senator Murkowski for Senate and Nick Begich for Representative.  In both races, the outcome will depend on vote distributions.  In the Senate race, Senator Murkowski and Kelly Tshibaka are likely to be the final two.  My expectation is that Senator Murkowski will ultimately win this election.  That’s not great, but at least she is somebody that can potentially support some bipartisan legislation.

In the House, things are more complex.  Representative Pelota will finish first in the first ballot by a significant margin, but she will not get a majority of the first-preference votes.  It will be a close race for second between Ms. Palin and Mr. Begich which might be decided on the second ballot by the second preferences for the Libertarian candidate.  If Mr. Begich ekes out second, he should get enough of the second preferences from the supporters of Ms. Palin to win the race.  If Ms. Palin finishes second, some of the supporters of Mr.  Begich will either not express a second preference or will support Representative Pelota.  In the special election earlier this year, Ms. Palin lost enough supporters of Mr. Begich to allow Representative Pelota to narrowly win the seat.  The outcome of the regular election is likely to be similarly close if it again comes down to Pelota vs. Palin.  Again, keeping this seat will be key to the Democrats eking out a majority.

At this time of the cycle, barring some shocking development in the next forty-eight hours, the opportunity to persuade voters is pretty much gone.  Even the “undecided voters” are leaning one way or the other and are just getting comfortable with their preference.  Barring some new development, they are unlikely to really switch.  (And a significant number of people have already voted.)  The key to what we will see Tuesday evening is now entirely about the turnout operations.  If young and progressive voters do not turn out (even if the Democratic candidate is not sufficiently progressive for their taste), Republicans will win and will continue to wage war on the rights of women and minority communities.  In many states, the Republican candidates are committed to putting a heavy thumb on the scale in future elections.  Every vote is needed now if we want a chance to push for changes in the future.  We have seen what type of chaos can occur when a Democratic presidnet has to deal with Republican control of the House and Senate, and we have seen what red states will pass through their legislatures if Republicans have complete power.