Four days after election day and we are waiting for results in the states with lots of mail-in ballots and the states that have ranked choice voting. The Democrats seem to be holding their own in the Senate and Governor’s races — so far gaining one Senate seat (Pennsylvania) and a net of one Governor’s mansion (picking up Maryland and Massachusetts as expected and losing Nevada which was the most vulnerable seat). Several potential Senate gains fell short — especially Wisconsin and North Carolina. While votes outstanding in Nevada, it looks like that will be a hold given where those votes are. That will make the Georgia runoff (which was expected) about the margin in the Senate rather than control.
As expected, we had a rough night/days in Florida and New York. In Florida, the lines performed as the Republicans hoped — giving them four new seats and costing the Democrats three seats. In New York, the new lines also worked as expected to give Republicans more seats. The current numbers are 15-10 with Republicans leading in the last outstanding seat. If they hold the Twenty-second, that would give them a sweep of the lean Republican/toss-up seats and a gain of thee with a loss of three for the Democrats. In short, Florida plus New York combined gave Republicans a gain of six or seven seats. Likewise, the new lines in Georgia flipped one seat to the Republicans. Thus, three states represent half of the Republican gains to date. In Virginia, Republican gains were kept to one seat — the one that was seen as most likely to flip going into the election.
Ohio and North Carolina, however, were good states for the Democrats at least at the House level. Ohio was the opposite of New York with all of the tossups going to the Democrats for a gain of one seat (and a loss of two for the Republicans). Likewise, the Democrats took the toss-up in North Carolina which, when combined with the new lines, gave the Demcocrats a gain of two (and a loss of one for the Republicans). In short, these maps netted a plus three for the Democrats. Similarly, the new maps in Illinois led to a gain of one for the Democrats and a loss of two for the Republicans.
In Kansas, Maryland, and Massachusetts, the House seats held. In Michigan, while the new lines led to two seats flipping (one to each party), the ultimate result was the only net change came from the loss of one seat due to the census which ended up being a Republican seat). In Pennsylvania, there were no flips, but otherwise the result was similar to Michigan — the one seat lost to the census ended up being the Republican seat.
While the open seat in Rhode Island was close, the Democrats held. Tennessee was like Georgia with one seat flipping due to lines drawn to assure an additional Republican seat. In Texas, after all of the dust settled, each party gained one seat under the new lines.
In Colorado, Democrats have held the Seventh. They are leading (and may have won in the Eighth) and the Third is very, very close.
Iowa, like Florida and Ohio, seems to be a state that is drifting away from the Democrats. It was close, as expected, but the Third flipped to the Republicans. In a good year, Democrats have a shot at three of the four seats in Iowa, but, if the year is even slightly favorable to the Republicans, the Republicans will sweep the seats.
In Minnesota and Nebraska, the parties held serve. In Wisconsin, with the seat being open, the Republicans picked up a Republican leaning seat that they have been hoping to get for several cycles.
In New Mexico, the only potential change is in the Second in which the Democrats are leading (or have won depending upon your preferred news source.
In Nevada, it looks like the parties held serve in the House. Likewise, in Hawaii, the Democrats held onto everything.
In Arizona, as feared, the new lines are favorable to Republicans. The Republicans have won four seats and lead in a fifth. The Democrats have won at least two and lead in the other two.
In Washington, so far, nothing has flipped. But in the one (Third) seat where primary voters (in a top two primary) opted for a Trumpist over the incumbent Republica, the race is still up in the air with the Democrat leading.
Likewise, in Oregon, nothing has flipped with two seats up for grabs still. One is the new seat. The other is a seat in which the incumbent Democrat lost to a more progressive challenger in the primary.
In California, votes are slowly coming in. Some media sources include “undeclared” seats in which both candidates are Democrats in their counts, but others do not. Current projections have Democrats winning at least thirty-six seats (compared to the current number of forty-two) and the Republicans won at least six seats (compared to the current eleven seats). Of the remaining ten seats,
Having summarized where things stand in the decided races, a quick look at what is still on the table. First, there are differences in what has been called by different outlets. Democrats lead in Arizona Fourth, Colorado Eighth, and New Mexico Second. Some outlets have called these races, but others have not.
Of the seats that are currently not projected by most people, going in alphabetical order, nothing in Alaska is projected yet. Most sites are noting Alaska as a hold for Republicans in the Senate race. At the present time, the top two candidates are the Trumpist candidate (counted as a Republican) and the real Republican. Since both are over 40%, no other candidate can catch them, and they will be the final two. My hunch is that when they distribute the approximately 23,000 votes for the third and fourth-placed candidate, Senator Lisa Murkowski will have more than enough votes to make up the 2,800 votes by which Trumpist Kelly Tshibaka currently leads. Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy is currently at 52% of the vote. Even if he dips slightly below 50%, there should be enough voters who did not rank a second choice or ranked him second from him to be reelected. Finally, in the House race, while things are not locked quite yet. Sarah Palin leads Nick Begich in the race for second by about 5,000 votes. As the fourth-placed candidate only has around 4,000 votes, there are not enough votes for the fourth-placed candidate for Begich to pass Palin on second preferences unless the outstanding votes are real good for Begich. Representative Pelotla is about 44,000 votes ahead of Palin with a total of 56,000 for Begich and the last-placed candidate. That means she only needs around 11% of that vote (and she got 25% in the special election) to hold on and that 11% assumes that all of the voters fully rank all of the candidates.
In Arizona, there are two seats up in the air — the First District and the Sixth District. In the First, the Democrat is up by around 4,000. It may take one or two more releases from Maricopa County to see if the Republican is picking up votes or if the Democrat is picking up votes from late drop-off ballots and provisional votes. The Sixth (in southeast Arizona) is the opposite situation with the Republican up by around 3,000. Most of the votes are likely to come from Pima County (Tucson) which should favor Democrats. This race might not be decided until the last vote is counted.
California is the big prize. And, as is usual given that ballots only need to be postmarked by Tuesday, the count is very incomplete. In the ten seats that have yet to be projected, the percent of the vote counted ranges from 36% to 70%. The current split is Republicans leading in six with Democrats leading in four. But, in one of those six, the Republican lead is less than 100 votes with less than half of the votes in.
In Colorado, as noted above, the Eighth is on the border line of being projected for the Democrats leaving only the Third District. Recent reports of additional votes have favored Boebert (T) and she now leads by just over 1100 votes. Rather that reflects her counties reporting quicker or a real trend is unknown. Several counties may have 2-3,000 votes left each, and some of those may be favorable to the Democrat, but it is simply unclear if the Democrat can win the remaining votes by enough to regain the lead.
The second district in Maine looks likely to go to ranked choices. The Democrat has a solid lead but is just enough under 50%, that the remaining vote is unlikely to move the needle enough. As the third candidate is more progressive than the Democrat, it seems like this will be a hold when preferences are distributed.
In New York, the only race still up in the air is the Twenty-second district. The Republican leads by 4,000 with an estimated 95% of the vote in. Given that the counties tend to hold their counts rather close to the chest, it is unclear if there enough votes left in the Democratic counties to gain 4,000 votes.
In Oregon, the Democrat is trailing by 7,000 in the Fifth, but leading by 4,000 in the Sixth. In both, there are enough votes outstanding to flip the result.
Finally, in Washington, the Democrat is currently leading the Third District by about 5,000 votes with 92% of the projected vote counted.
In all of these states, we should have either completed counts or a good idea of votes that are outstanding by the middle of this week. Right now, it looks like Republicans will have a narrow majority of 220 seats (if the Democrats win the California race that they are losing by 84 votes). It would only take three of the other close races flipping for the Democrats to keep control of the House. Arizona Sixth, California Twenty-second, and California Forty-first seem to be the most likely three to go Democratic given the current margins and the number of votes outstanding. If the Republicans are to pad that 220. the most likely flips are Arizona First and California Forty-seven (or keeping the lead in California Thirteen).
