The last election of 2022 will conclude on Tuesday with the runoff election for U.S. Senator in Georgia. While there are still some races that will go to recounts, all of the statewide and congressional races seem to be outside the margin at which a recount could make a difference. (There are three races with margins between 500 and 600 votes — Arizona Attorney General, California Thirteenth District, and Colorado Third District. In the Minnestoa Senate recount in 2008, the net swing from the original results to the recount results was 450 votes with an additional 87 votes gained in the election contest. The closest of the three races going to recount is 511. While other recounts have resulted in bigger swings, they were in races with bigger margins and Minnesota remains the largest swing that changed the results of a race.
The significance of the Senate race is not quite as big as it was in 2021 due to the Republicans apparently taking the House (but the Republican’s inability to reach a consensus on the next Speaker will be the subject of a future post) and the fact that the Democrats already have 50 seats. But the result still matters for five key reasons.
First, the additional seat will alter the composition of committees. With a 50-50 Senate, the committees are evenly divided. While the rules currently allow a bill or nomination to proceed to the Senate floor on a tie vote, a 51-49 Senate would result in the Democrats having a majority on the committees.
Second, 51-49 is a majority. On issues on which the Democrats (and the two independents who caucus with the Democrats are united), the Democrats will be able to pass bills and approve nominations without the Vice-President breaking the tie. Thus, Vice President Kamala Harris will be free to do other things than hang around the Senate to break the ties. With the loss of control of the House, this change will be more significant on nominations than on legislation.
Third, the extra vote reduces the influence of Senator Joe Manchin and Senator Krysten Sinema. Currently, to get anything through the Senate, the Democrats need to keep both on board. As Senator Sinema and Senator Manchin often want different (and sometimes contradictory) changes to legislation, being able to lose one of the two will make it easier to get things done. On the other hand, the need to keep moderate Republicans (okay moderately conservative Republicans) in the House on board to pass any legislation will make this change less significant.
Fourth, 2024 will be a hard year for Senate Democrats. There are three Democrats running in states that will likely go for the Republicans in the presidential race (Senator Brown in Ohio, Senator Tester in Montana, and Senator Manchin in West Virginia) and no Republicans running in lean Democrat states. There are a handful of weak Republican senators (Senator Scott in Florida, Senator Hawley in Missouri, and Senator Cruz in Texas) who are vulnerable, but only to the right candidate. In short, every extra seat now increases the odds that the Democrats will be able to get to 50 in 2024.
Fifth, a loss for unqualified Trump pick Herschel Walker will be another example that fealty to Trump is not enough to win in swing states. That will not be enough to put a stake through the heart of Donald Dracul. (I am not even sure if the likely criminal charges that will be filed in 2023 will be enough to derail the Trump train.) But it will give more ammunition to traditional Republicans (a/k/a RINOs) fighting a last ditch effort against Trump’s hostile takeover of what used to be a proud party that stood for some ideas (often wrong ideas, but still ideas). While I would prefer a viable Republican party that stood for something, anything that will undermine the ultranationalists and theocrats in their effort to destroy democracy and the Constitution is a good thing.
Currently, the numbers out of Georgia are looking good for a narrow win on Tuesday. As was true in November, the results will come in three waves. First, early in-person votes will be released shortly after the polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern (6 p.m. Central, 5 p.m. Mountain, 4 p.m. Pacific). Over the next several hours, election day votes will be released. As in other states, medium sized rural counties will tend to be released earlier with smaller rural counties and urban counties coming later in the evening. Finally, absentee votes (i.e. mail-in ballots) will tend to be released over the next twenty-four hours. In short, Senator Warnock will probably take the early lead but Mr. Walker will then have a surge later in the evening. But then there will be a surge toward Senator Warnock. If Senator Warnock is in the lead by midnight, he will almost certainly be re-elected. But if Mr. Walker has a lead at midnight, it could be a long night into the following day before we know who has won.
