In the U.S., in something that would be a surprise to the Franers, the presidential election has become the “main” election.  Turnout is always highest for the presidential election.  But that is not the only only election, and other elections can be even more important.  To save money, most states have their statewide elections coincide with federal elections (either the presidential election or the mid-term election).  But a handful of states have taken a different approach and hold their elections in odd-numbered years.  In addition, many states (while holding the elections for state offices at the same time as federal election in even-numbered years) hold local elections in the odd-numbered years.  And most states, even if November in odd-numbered years is not a “regular” election date keep it available as a potential election date for special elections and propositions.   This year, the November election will feature several big races.

At the state-wide office level, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky hold their elections for governor in the year immediately proceeding the presidential election.  Louisiana is a little different because it holds a “jungle primary” which is actually an open general election (i.e. no party primaries) with a runoff if nobody gets 50%.  This “primary” election was several weeks ago, and the Republicans picked up the governor’s office in Louisiana.  Given that Louisiana is a deep red state, this pickup was not too surprising as it takes the right Democrat to have a chance at winning and the incumbent Democrat was term limited.  The new governor is a right wing extremist, and we will probably be hearing a lot of nonsense out of the Pelican State for the next eight years.

But the races for Governor in Kentucky and Mississippi will be on Tuesday.  (At least the initial vote will be on Tuesday as Mississippi has a runoff provision if nobody gets to 50%.)  The governor in Kentucky is a Democrat and the governor in Mississippi is a Republican.  Both are favored to be reelected but the challengers in both states have chances at pulling an upset.  In Kentucky, the challengers big advantage is that he is a Republican.  But the Republican candidate has been a controversial figure as Attorney General, and the Democratic incumbent is popular which might be just enough to hold onto the office.  In Mississippi, the Governor has gotten entangled in some scandals and the challenger happens to be a member of a famous family even if that fame was over 50 years ago.  But Mississippi is still a deep red state.  In short, the most likely outcome is that there will be no changes, but it is also possible that either or both states could flip.

While the Governor’s office is not up for grab in Virginia, the state legislature is.  As is true in lots of states, even though Democrats are probably the majority statewide, Democratic votes tend to be concentrated in urban areas.  That makes it hard to convert 52% of the votes into 52% of the seats.   Currently, the Democrats have the majority in the State Senate, but both houses are very closely divided, and the battle for control of each house will come down to a handful of seats.   The Republican campaign has focused on Joe Biden, crime, and inflation as reasons to vote Republican.  The Democratic campaign has tended to focus on abortion as a reason to keep divided government.

Speaking of abortion, there is that little proposition in Ohio on abortion rights.   The Republicans have tried to stack the deck on this issue by using their statewide positions to write the ballot title and title summary using slanted language. (Republicans tried to do the same thing here in Missouri for a ballot petition that will probably make the November 2024 ballot, but, in Missouri, the courts strictly enforce the requirement for fair and impartial language.)  Whether this proposition passes will be a key sign on whether abortion remains an issue that will aid Democrats in November 2024 and whether Democrats can hold onto the Senate seat that will be up for grabs in Ohio in 2024.

There is a special election for the vacant seat in the U.S. House in Rhode Island’s First District.  This seat was held by a Democrat, and Democrats are favored to keep it.  However, the problem with special elections is that they are low turnout races so an upset is always possible.  There will be a special election in Utah for a vacant Republican seat just before Thanksgiving in which the Republican will be favored and the Democrats hoping for a turnout upset.

Lastly, as noted above, there are a lot of local election around the country.  The elections in Pennsylvania will probably draw some national coverage.  There are judicial races on the ballot.  In addition, there are county commission races and, in Pennsylvania, county commissioners certify election results.  If Pennsylvania is close in November 2024, the results next week could impact what types of shenanigans might occur during the counting and certification process.

Even in states that will not be battlegrounds in 2024, Tuesday’s elections are very important.  While the media tends to focus on national and statewide races, local races tend to have more direct impact on voters.   Mayors and city councils decide the budgets for local police departments and appoint the police chief as well as control spending on roads and other infrastructure within the city.  School boards (within the limits set by state law) set the policies for schools. pick the textbooks, determine what electives are offered in high school, set the numbers and pay of teachers, and hire the superintendents who run the school system.