This week, Senator Joe Manchin (I/D — WVa) announced that he would not be running for re-election. If Senator Manchin does not end up on the “Let’s split the anti-Trump vote” “No Labels” ticket, this decision is both positive and negative for what Democrats might be able to do in the 2025-26 Congress.
To paraphrase a saying attributed to Karl Rove, progressive want to nominate the most progressive candidate that can win a general election. In West Virginia, Joe Manchin might just have been the most progressive candidate that Democrats could nominate and still have a chance at winning. His name recognition and reputation allowed him to win a state in which the average Democrat has hoping to receive 40-45% of the vote in the general election.
Is it possible that, one day in the future, Democrats could be competitive in West Virginia again? Yes. But, in one crucial way, West Virginia resembles the pre-Civil War South. In today’s West Virginia, coal mining is a key industry. While only 2% of the state directly works in coal (like only a tiny percentage of Southerners owned slaves), coal is the second largest industry (beyond the health sector) based on GDP generated. In many parts of the state, if coal mining stopped tomorrow, there would be significant job losses in many areas of the state which would also cause retail and service industries to decline in those areas. And the number who see their livelihood as tied to coal is a large enough percent to make the pro-coal vote a significant block in West Virginia elections. This puts Democrats in a bind. It is essential for the nation and the world for the U.S. to reduce its reliance on coal. But recognizing and acting on this necessity hurts Democrats in West Virginia. As such, the reality is that without Joe Manchin running, it is almost certain that Democrats will lose the Senate race in West Virginia. And given how close the Senate is currently divided, the loss of this seat will make it harder for Democrats to have a majority in the Senate after the 2024 election.
On the other hand, if Joe Manchin had decided to run again, he was not guaranteed to win. And the national party would have been expected to assist his re-election efforts. With Joe Manchin not running, the number of vulnerable Senate incumbents (who the party will assist before spending on potential pickups) is down by one which will free up resources to spend in the handful of states (Florida, Missouri, and Texas) in which Democrats could potentially defeat unpopular Republican incumbents.
And when Joe Biden is re-elected and Democrats retake the House, having Joe Manchin in the Senate would be a mixed blessing. It is important to have the majority in a legislative body. The majority gets to control committees and decide what bills are brought to the floor. But having a nominal majority that is not a working majority is a problem. Voters expect the majority to deliver results. And we have seen that over the past three years with Joe Manchin often having the deciding vote on Democratic priorities. Not having to negotiate with Joe Manchin will be a plus and the Democratic caucus will be more unified without Joe Manchin and a certain soon-to-be-former Senator from Arizona. So, if the Democrats can keep the rest of their seats and pick off one of the vulnerable Republicans to have fifty-one seats in the next Senate, they might be able to do more in 2025-26 than they have been able to do in Joe Biden’s first term.
