Things are about to get very interesting in the House of Representatives.  While there have been a large number of representatives who are not running for re-election.  The irony of Republicans explaining their reason for leaving as the unpleasant environment in Congress is hard to miss.  But the focus of this post is not on those leaving in January 2025.  It is those who have left (involuntarily) or are about to be leaving mid-term.

At the present time, we have a vacancy in New York’s Third District due to the expulsion of fraudster who called himself George Santos.  (And the fact that the majority of House Republicans did not want to expel him despite overwhelming evidence of fraud while wanting to open an impeachment of President Biden with no evidence says something about the shell of a serious political party that the Republicans have become).  But we have also had announcements of the intent to resign in three other districts (so far) —   California’s Twentieth District (former Speaker Kevin McCarthy who will be leaving sometime later this month or in early January),  New York’s  Twenty-Sixth District (Democrat Brian Higgins who will be leaving in February), and Ohio’s  Sixth District (Republican Bill Johnson who will be leaving in March).

These departures in the House will alter the size of the Republican majority in the House.  The rules for vacancies in the House are different than the rules for vacancies in the Senate.  Under the Seventeenth Amendment, the governor of each state can temporarily fill a vacancy in the Senate until an election can be held to fill the balance of the term.  By contrast, there is no equivalent provision for the House.  Thus a House seat remains vacant until there is a special election.  For both the House and the Senate, the timing of the special election is left to the state.  Especially for the Senate, there is a wide range of rules with some states leaving the appointee in office until the next regularly scheduled election (which can create the weirdness of having two elections for the same office — one for the last three to four weeks of the current term and one for the next term — at the same time) and others requiring a prompt special election.  But the states also have different rules for the scheduling of House elections (and who chooses the candidates).

So what does this mean for the Republican majority in the House.  Because these vacancies are not occurring at the same time, there will be a gradual change in the numbers in the House.  Prior to the expulsion of George Santos, the margin was 222-213.  It’s now 221-213.  When Kevin McCarthy’s resignation becomes effective, it will go to 220-213.  If there were no special elections, the resignation of Brian Higgins would make it 220-212,.  And lastly, assuming no deaths or other resignations, the resignation of Bill Johnson will make it 219-212.  In other words, the House majority is not at risk yet.  But the margin will shrink.

The issue then becomes whether any of these positions will be filled by special election.  New York law, at the very least, permits the governor to promptly schedule a special election.  One has already been scheduled for February for New York’s Third District.  While it takes around two to three months to schedule and hold a special election, it is likely that there will be a special election for New York’s Twenty-Sixth District in May.  Since the Democrats have good chances of winning both.  It is likely that around the time of Representative Higgins’s resignation, the Democrats will pick up New York’s Third District go back to 213.  And by May, the Democrats will be back to 214.  With a 219-214 House, the Republicans would only be able to afford two defectors on any vote.

But what about the seats in California and Ohio.  In California, the Governor must issue a proclamation calling a special election within ten days of notice of the vacancy (i.e. when Kevin McCarthy officially resigns).  That election will be between 126 days and 140 days after the proclamation. (In other words, up to five months after the vacancy occurs).  But the Governor has discretion to decline to hold a separate special election if the vacancy occurs after filing for the next general election has occurred, and the Governor can opt to postpone the date for the special election to up to 200 days after the proclamation (six months) to coincide with another election in the same geographic area.  Filing closes for the general election in California’s Twentieth District on December 13.  So assuming that Kevin McCarthy does not have his paperwork in by Wednesday, that seat could remain vacant until November.  Even if the governor were to call a special election, that election might not be until mid-May.  And, under California law, it would be an open primary with a potential runoff (if nobody gets 50% of the vote).  Given how long it takes to finalize the mail-in vote in California, the runoff might not be until August with the winner not certified until mid-September or later.  So regardless of what happens, this seat will be empty for most of next year.

Turning to Ohio.  It is unclear that Ohio law even permits a special election to be held.  But the timing of the vacancy will make it rather hard to schedule dates for a primary election with enough time for candidates to file and then hold a general election prior to the regular election in November 2024.  When Ohio had vacancies in 2021, the primary elections were held in August with the general election in November.  Even if the Republicans tried to accelerate the dates, we are looking at a vacancy that will not be filled until August or September at the earliest.

In short, an unmanageable Republican House majority is about to become even more unmanageable.  The majority could be down to 219-213 by mid-March and down to 219-214 by mid-May.  And with the rules allowing any member to file a motion to vacate the Speaker position which would be a privilged motion, it seems within the realm of possibility that we will see a third Speaker prior to the end of this Congress.