Tuesday is Super Tuesday — the first Tuesday of the primary cycle in which any state can hold a primary contest. As most states use state-run primaries, there will be a large number of states on Tuesday.
But, before Super Tuesday, several states that are using party-run contests will be holding Republican contests as the “window” for the Republicans opened yesterday. (The “window” for Democrats opens on Tuesday.) As discussed last week, one of the contests today is the second half of the Republican’s Michigan two-step with the Republican state convention which will be allocating the “district” level delegates. In addition to Michigan, today will see events in Missouri and Idaho.
The Missouri Republican rules are somewhat ambiguous. It looks like they are doing a traditional caucus with a 15% threshold and an unspecified winner-take-all kicker at local option. But rather than allocating delegates based on today’s vote (which is what the national rules appear to require), they are merely binding the delegates chosen today to vote the same preference at the district conventions (which should effectively have the same result). Missouri is using a caucus because our current Secretary of State repeatedly lied and claimed that the state-run primary was nonbinding (when the rules of both party made the primary binding) and a repeal of the primary was slipped into an omnibus election bill which passed despite the unanimous opposition of Democratic legislature). The Democrats will be holding a party-run primary in three weeks with a mail-in option.
In Idaho, there will be a binding preference vote in the Idaho caucus. If, as expected , Trump gets more than 50%, he will win all of the delegates. If the race is close and the minor/withdrawn candidates get enough votes, Trump and Haley will split the delegates with the caveat that if any delegates remain unallocated (fractional delegates that would have gone to candidates who received less than fifteen percent), the winning candidate gets those delegates.
On Monday, the North Dakota Republicans will hold their caucus. The rules are similar to Idaho with two changes. First, the winner-take-all threshold will be sixty percent. Second, if nobody gets to 60%, the threshold for getting any delegates will be sixty percent.
Tuesday, however, is the big day. On Tuesday, you will have caucuses for Republicans in Alaska and Utah. You will also have state-run primaries for both parties in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Vermont and a state-run primary for Democrats in Utah. You will have a party-run primary for Democrats in Iowa and a caucus for Democrats in American Samoa.
While there are variants in each of these states on the Republican side as to thresholds for winner-take-all and for qualifying for delegates, barring a major surprise, Donald Trump will get almost all of the delegates and will be close to clinching enough delegates to be the nominee assuming that his legal troubles do not force him to withdraw. As unbelievable as it would have been as little as a decade ago, a major political party appears poised to nominate a convicted felon and someone who has been found by the courts to be a con artist and a liar as its presidential candidate.
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden should likewise win all or almost all of the delegates at issue on Tuesday.
After Tuesday, the party-run primary for Democrats in Hawaii will take place on Wednesday and the caucus for Republicans in American Samoa. The rules in American Samoa are ambiguous. On the one hand, the delegates from American Samoa are supposed to be chosen in a way that reflects the preferences of attendees. On the other hand, they are unbound unless the convention adopts a resolution binding them to a particular candidate.
But back to Tuesday, in those states with state-run primaries, some (but not all of them) are also holding a primary for other offices. These states are Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas. As the spring progresses, the use of one primary for both presidential preference and for nominating candidates for other offices will become more common. Using one primary date for both types of contests saves money, but many states also want a shorter general election period (and to prevent legislators from having to run in a mid-session primary). So states with March presidential primaries are a mixed bag in terms of a joint primary. By May and early June, joint primaries are more likely.
In Alabama, the two big races are the result of court-ordered redistricting to comply with the Voting Rights Act. As a result of the new lines designed to prevent discrimination against African-American voters, two incumbent Republicans are facing each other in the First District. Jerry Carl has been representing the First District and Bobby Moore has been representing the Second District. The line changes between the gerrymandered map used in 2022 and the new map are significant making it unclear whether either candidate begins with a significant advantage. And, while Republicans will be choosing the likely winner of November’s election in the new First District, Democrats will be choosing the likely winner of November’s election in the new Second District. From fundraising numbers, it looks like there are several state representatives who have legitimate chances at winning.
California will be interesting. With mail-in ballots being a significant percent of the votes in California, it often takes several weeks to finish processing those ballots and get final numbers. California uses a “top two” system in which all candidates participate in one primary (regardless of party) and the two candidates with the most votes (again regardless of party) advance to the general election. Unlike the similar system in Louisiana, this election is truly a primary. Even if the first-placed candidate gets the majority of the votes, both the first-placed candidate and the runner-up advance to November. In a top two-system, it is possible for a major party to get shut out of the general election. In California (and in Washington which uses the same system), it has been very rare for the Republicans to get both general election slots in state-wide elections or in congressional districts. It has ben somewhat more common for Democrats to get both general election slots.
The big race is the U.S. Senate race. This race is actually two elections — one for the remainder of the late Diane Feinstein’s term (a whole month by the time that a winner is certified in early December) and one for the next six years. At this point, there appears to be more four major candidates in both races. Not all of the minor candidates filed for the special election to fill the remainder of Senator Feinstein’s term creating the possibility of a different result in that primary. The four major candidates are Represenative Adam Schiff, Representative Katie Porter, and Representative Barbara Lee on the Democratic side and unqualified retired baseball player Steve Garvey on the Republican side. The consensus of polling seems to be that Representative Schiff is in first place, Representative Porter and Mr. Garvey are in a tight race for second and Representative Lee is trailing the lead pack in fourth place. Representative Schiff’s ads have drawn some heat as he has run ads attacking Mr. Garvey as too conservative. While those ads are almost certainly true (although Mr. Garvey has tried to avoid taking stands on anything of substance), supporters of Representative Porter have complained that the real purpose of those ads is to get Republicans to unite behind Mr. Garvey so that the general election is between Mr. Garvey and Representative Schiff (which should be an easy win for Representative Schiff). Those complaints are probably true, but it also makes sense strategically for Representative Schiff. Regardless of who takes second, if Representative Schiff makes it to the general election, he will probably win the general election.
With three members of Congress running for Senate, that means that those seats (the Twelfth, Thirtieth, and Forty-seventh) will be open. Additionally, for now, Kevin McCarthy’s old seat (Twentieth) is open although there will be a special election in a couple of weeks for that seat. But that special election is after the primary. There are three other open seats (Sixteenth, Twenty-ninth, Thirty-first) due to incumbents choosing not to run for another term. With the possible exception of Representative Porter’s seat (Forty-seventh), the open seats are not that competitive for the general election. Some of the other seats might be competitive in November depending on who emerges from Tuesday.
In North Carolina, the big race is for governor. The current governor, Democrat Roy Cooper is term limited making this an open seat. The favorites to win the primaries are current Attorney General Josh Stein for the Democrats and current Lieutenant Governor, and always ultra-right lunatic, Mark Robinson for the Republicans. In addition, the North Carolina legislature (after the Republicans gained control of the state supreme court) redrew the congressional lines to switch what had been a 6 Republican, 5 Democrat, and 3 swing district map into a 10 Republican, 3 Democrat, and 1 swing district map. As such, there will be some primaries for open seats as two incumbent Democrats decided that their new districts were indefensible, one Democrat and one Republican opted to run for Attorney General, and one Republican chose to retire for a total of five open races. With the new lines, the likely new representative from each of these five districts will probably be the Republican nominee.
Lastly, there is Texas. The big race on Tuesday is the Democratic primary for the right to take on detestable Senator Ted Cruz in November. Any Republican but Ted Cruz would be a solid favorite to win in November, but Ted Cruz rubs enough people the wrong way that there is a chance for the Democrat to win in November (although Cruz will still be favored to win). The leading candidate on the Democratic side is Representative Colin Allred from Dallas. The big problem for Representative Allred is that he needs to get 50% to avoid a run-off. My hunch says that Allred will finish first on Tuesday, but there are a couple of other candidates who could get around 20% of the vote and nine total candidates running. As such, there is a decent chance that this race will head to a run-off in May. In addition to Allred’s open seat, there are two other open seats. Also, there is an interesting primary in the Eighteenth District. Representative Sheila Lee unsuccessfully ran for mayor of Houston last year. Apparently, that effort rubbed some people in the district the wrong way (and she has held the seat for thirty years). As a result, the city council member who represents a good chunk of the district is running against Representative Lee.
In short, with the presidential primaries appearing to be effectively over, the focus will very quickly shift to other races. And there will be a lot to be looking at in the weeks ahead with many members of Congress either trying to run for another office or just sick and tired of dealing with the Freedom Caucus. My fear is that the normal conservatives who are giving up on Washington will be replaced by Trumpers and that the crazy wing of the Republican Party is going to emerge from this election even stronger. All that patriots can hope for is that the self-inflicted wounds of the Republican Party leads to solid Democratic majorities so that something can get done next year.
