This week several states have primaries, but it is unlikely that many of them will be significant.  In addition, we have the runoff in California for Kevin McCarthy’s old seat.

Starting with the special election in California.  Under the top two system in California, the Republicans got both slots in the runoff.  So when the results are finally certified in June, the Republicans will go back up to 218 seats.  The only issue is which Republican gets the slot — McCarthy’s handpicked successor (Vince Fong) or County Sheriff Michael Boudreaux.  This is likely to be a low turnout election which means that anything could happen.  The same two candidates have made the general election in November which will have much higher turnout, but the winner on Tuesday will have a major advantage for the November election.

Georgia had to redraw districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act, but Republicans in the legislature solved that issue by simply redrawing the map so that the Democratic district was majority-minority and making the Republican district whiter (with the numbers flipped).  Thus, the end result in Georgia is likely to be the same.  For the most part, incumbents are likely to prevail, but some incumbents ended up with significantly altered districts.  Additionally, the Third District is an open seat.  Starting with the Third District, this rural district in western Georgia will almost certainly go Republican in November.  There are five candidates running.  The most likely outcome on Tuesday will be a runoff.  The top three candidates in fundraising are Mike Crane, Michael Dugan, and Brian Jack, and it is likely that two of the three will make the runoff.  The other race of interest is the Sixth District.  This race is the one most likely impacted by the redrawing of the lines.  Representative Lucy McBath currently represents the Seventh District.  That district was chopped up to avoid the Democrats gaining a seat in redistricting, and Representative McBath is now running in the Sixth District.  As best as I can tell, there is no overlap between the new Sixth and the old Seventh.  While Representative McBath will be favored in this race, there is a chance of an upset.  Unfortunately, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene did not draw any primary opponents and thus is likely to be back for another term.

There are no apparent races of interest in Idaho.  The only race that seems potentially interesting in Kentucky is the Republican primary in the Fifth District where Dana Edwards has raised a significant amount in a challenge to long-term incumbent Hal Rogers.  With no public polling, it is unclear if there is an upset in the making here.  Both parties will have a presidential primary and, as always, the issue is how much opposition will the two candidates draw.  As with West Virginia, there are a significant number of “cultural” Democrats who have just never switched their voter registration to match their general election voting patterns.  And this block of voters frequently uses their late in the process role to vote for whomever is the top opponent of the presumptive nominee.  As such, Dean Phillips or uncommitted (or both) may get some delegates out of Kentucky.

In Oregon, there are several races of interest.  The top race is the open primary for the Third District (Portland).  The winner of the Democratic primary will almost certainly win in November.  There are seven candidates running and three of them — Maxine Dexter, Susheela Jayapal, and Eduardo Morales — are essentially tied in fundraising.  One of these three will likely be going to Washington as the new Representative from Oregon.

Also of interest is the Democratic primary in the Fifth District (the area to the southeast of Portland).  Unlike the Third District, the Fifth District is a swing district.  In 2022, Jamie McLeod-Skinner knocked off the incumbent Democratic Representative, Kurt Schrader, in the primary but lost in the general election to Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer.  Ms. McLeod-Skinner is looking for a rematch but State Representative Janelle Bynum has raised the most money.  This district is one of the district that will decide control of the House in November.

Besides the Congressional races, there are open races for Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Treasurer.  On the Democratic side, there are multiple candidates in each of the races.  There will also be presidential primary on the Democratic side.  As in past states, the question is whether there is a protest vote by those who want the U.S. to somehow force Israel to modify its strategy in Gaza.