We have just entered uncharted territory with the decision by President Joe Biden to withdraw from the race.

This is not the first time that the nominee has been unclear heading into a convention, but this is the first time in the modern era that this has happened.  In the old days (pre-1972), voters had very little say in who the presidential nominee would be.  While there were primaries, they were as likely to be beauty contests rather than something that was binding on the allocation of delegates.  The overwhelming majority of delegates went to the nominating conventions as uncommitted or pledged to a “favorite son” (and it was always a “son” back then).  Whether uncommitted or pledged to a favorite son, most delegates were de facto selected by state or local party leaders.

But a lot has changed in sixty years.  State parties have grown a lot weaker.  Even on state committees, there are a significant number of members who do not support the state leadership.  While state party leadership may, in some cases, try to push certain people as delegates, those efforts are only partially successful at best.

Under the Democratic party rules, there are multiple types of delegates.  First, there are automatic “super delegates” — elected officials and DNC members.  But under the post-2016 reformers, these delegates do not get to vote on the first ballot.  Second, there are state at-large delegates.  Third, there are state pledged “party leader and elected official” delegates.  Finally, there are district level delegates (which represent about two-thirds of the total convention).  And states have some flexibility in choosing these delegates.

Starting with the automatic delegates.  The selection of these people was unconnected to the primary race.  The elected officials were elected in some election in past years (except for the small number chosen in special elections this year).  For the most part, DNC members were chosen back in 2020 (at least the state members were with state party chairs and vice-chairs chosen in 2022 or 2023).

For the remaining delegates, you then get a variety of system.  For the pledged delegates, it is easier to start with the district level delegates.  States have some options for how they select the district level delegates.

First, a handful of states elect delegates directly in the primary.  In these states, the presidential candidates have more control as they effectively pick the people running for delegate on their slate.  In a contested primary, the votes cast effectively rank the delegates to determine who gets each potential delegate slot (i.e. the delegate candidate with the most votes gets the first delegate slot awarded to that candidate).  This year, however, with only token opposition almost every delegate selected by the Biden campaign won a delegate slot.  Because these delegates are handpicked by the Biden campaign, they might be the most likely to follow Biden’s recommendation as far as whom should get the nomination.

Second, another small group of states have pre-primary caucuses to pre-slate the delegates.  In these states, while the candidates have some veto (i.e. can reject somebody whom they do not believe really support the candidate), they are not able to veto all of the delegate candidates and the participants in these caucuses have more potential delegate candidates than available slots.   As in the states that directly elect delegates on the primary ballot, the delegates are ranked in terms of priority for the available slots.

But the majority of states hold their delegate selection caucuses after the primary.  So there is no need to rank the delegates as the supporters of each candidate are limited to the number of delegates that they won in the primary (as opposed to needing enough delegates to cover all slots up for grabs in that district).  As in the pre-primary states, the candidates have some degree of veto over delegates, but still have to approve more candidates than there are available delegate slots.  (In my own state, it is rare for the campaigns to veto potential delegates.)

As to the other groups of delegates, there are three basic options.  The two most popular options are to have either the state committee or the state convention pick the at-large and PLEO delegates (with the same body picking both).  A third option is to have the district delegates pick the remainder of the delegation.  A small number of states use a hybrid system with one body picking the PLEOs and another body picking the at-large delegates.  Obviously, placing the power in the hands of the state committees maximizes the power of the state committee and makes it more likely that the at-large delegates will follow the recommendation of state leaders while those selected by state conventions are more likely to listen to the grassroots.

It is still too early to tell what the party is going to do with the process for picking a presidential nominee and who, besides Vice-President Harris will make an attempt at the nomination.  But before anybody starts talking about a “done deal,” they really need to hear from the delegates what the delegates think needs to be done.  Because, ultimately, it will be the delegates who have the last word.  And there is nobody out there with the authority to speak on behalf of the delegates.  The majority of the delegates are truly free agents who will not take kindly to being told to fall in line with what somebody else has decided for them.