As we are nearing the mid-way point of the summer primaries, there are four states with primaries during this upcoming week — Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin. However, compared to some previous weeks, this week should be relatively low on drama.
Connecticut is one of those states that uses party conventions as a screening tool for the primary. There are two ways to get on the primary ballot — getting enough votes at the party convention or getting enough signatures on a petition. There are only two primaries on the ballot (at least above the state legislative level), both on the Republican side — one for U.S. Senate and one for the Fourth District. However, neither of the Republican candidates for Senate are funded at anywhere near the level that would make them a viable general election candidate. While the two candidates in the Fourth have some money, the Fourth District is solidly Democratic. In other words, neither or these primaries will make much difference in November.
Minnesota has some primaries that might be significant.
For U.S. Senate, there are contested primaries on both sides. Senator Amy Klobuchar has some primary opponents. None of them have the type of funding to be “the” alternative to Senator Klobuchar. As such, Senator Klobuchar should get the overwhelming majority of the primary vote. The Republican Primary is a little more intriguing. The top two candidates, at least in terms of fundraising are the very Trumpy Royce White and Joseph Fraser. Neither looks to be a viable general election candidate, and the Democrats will be happy with whomever the Republican nominee will be as they will drag down the rest of the Republican ticket in November.
The bigger races are in the U.S. House. The Second District is a swing district. Up until Mid-July, the Republican Primary had two viable candidates. But Taylor Rahm suspended his campaign to join the Trump campaign team. It is unclear if this was a deal worked out to clear out the primary or a sneaky strategy to win the primary while not running. But it should mean that the Republicans will nominate Joe Tierab who has the money to mount a serious challenge to current Representative Angie Craig. While the Third District is an open seat due to the retirement of Dean Phillips, neither party has a primary.
In the Fifth District, there might be a competitive primary. Representative Ilhan Omar does have a well-funded challenger. In recent weeks, a couple of “Squad” members lost their primaries due, in part, to their stance on Gaza. While the Squad position on Gaza only commands the support of a slim fraction of the Democratic Party nationally, the Fifth District might be one of the few districts in which that stance actually helps a Democratic candidate. This race is a rerun of the 2022 primary when Representative Omar barely survived a challenge from Don Samuels who is hoping to do slightly better this time around. The Republicans do have a well-funded candidate, but this district is overwhelmingly Democratic so barring ill-feelings from the Democractic primary, Democrats are quite happy to see Republicans poor money into the general election in this district.
In the Seventh District, Republican Michelle Fischbach has an opponent who has raised some money but polling shows that she should win easily.
In Vermont, there is a Democratic primary for governor. Potentially, the Democrat has a shot at winning the general election, but the current Republican Governor Phill Scott is one of the last of the dying breed of traditional centrist New England Republicans. So while Bernie Sanders will get reelected in a landslide and the state will overwhelmingly vote for the Harris-Walz ticket, it is highly likely that Phill Scott will get reelected by a comfortable margin.
Finally, there is Wisconsin. While there are multiple candidates in the Republican Senate Primary, the only candidate with serious funding is Eric Hovde. He was not necessarily the first choice of Republicans, but he was the most viable candidate that they could convince to run. He has several disqualifying factors that voters in Wisconsin will hear a lot about in the next several months. Wisconsin will be closer than we would like but the combination of Trump, Vance, and Hovde should help the Democrats prevail in a race that will be closer than it should be.
The Third District (on the western side of the state) is a potentially competitive lean Republican district. If the top of the ticket brings the Republican vote down in Wisconsin, the Democrats have a chance here. There are three Democratic candidates, each of whom has raised enough money to put together a primary campaign. The leading candidate, at least in terms of fundraising is Rebecca Cooke who finished second in the primary in 2022 for this seat. The main competition appears to be from State Representative Katrina Shankland. Both have endorsements from across the spectrum of the Democratic Party although Ms. Shankland’s endorsements are more local and Ms. Cooke’s endorsements are more national. The last polling of this race was last October so either could win.
The last primary to note is actually a double primary — both a regular primary for the full-term starting in January and a special primary for the remainder of the existing term (i.e. late November and December) in the Eighth District. The Democrats have only one candidate running in this district so the action in the primary is on the Republican side in this contest to replace Republican Mike Gallagher. As the same candidates are running in both primaries, it is most likely that the same candidate will win both, but if the race is close there is a chance that drop off caused by some voters not understanding that they need to vote in both primaries could result in a split which could cause problems for Republicans in November in a district that they otherwise would be favored to win.
You have three well-funded candidates — current State Senator Andre Jacques, former State Senator (and 2022 Lieutenant Governor nominee) James Roth, and self-funding local businessman Tony Wied. The local endorsements are all supporting Jacques or Roth, but President Trump and the Freedom Caucus have weighed in on the side of Tony Wied. If that endorsement makes the difference, Democrats have an outside chance at stealing the district in November. While that chance would still be slim, the consolation prize would be that Mr. Wied would increase the chaos in what used to be the Republican caucus in the House. Of course, if you believe in good government, the inability of the Republicans in the House to even do the necessary bills is not a good thing and Mr. Wied would make that problem worse.
In short, the races to watch on Tuesday are in the Republican Primary in Minnesota’s Second District, the Democratic Primary in Wisconsin’s Third, and the Republican Primary in Wisconsin’s Eighth to see what races might be competitive in November. In addition, the competitive Democratic Primary in Minnesota’s Fifth District should determine the representative from that district for the next Congress.
Taking a brief look ahead, next week, besides the Democratic national convention, there will be the top four primary in Alaska, primaries in Florida, and primaries in Wyoming. Alaska and Florida will be the primary focus of next week’s post. While Oklahoma will have runoff elections on August 27, none of the races above the state legislative level have runoffs and that will leave a handful of states with September primaries.
