The U.S. is different from most other democracies in how we run elections.  One major difference is that, in most other countries, the local party committees (with some suggestions from the national party) pick the candidates.  In the U.S. that only happens (and in only in some states) when there is a special election.  Instead, the rule in most states is that candidates for the general election are chosen by partisan primaries.

And because there is no federal law governing the timing of primaries, it is up to the states to decide when they want to hold their primaries.  But, because federal law does set the date of the general election for presidential electors, U.S. Senators, and U.S. Representatives (the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November) and also requires that absentee ballots e mad available by early October to military voters, the latest that a state can hold their primary (and canvass the ballots at the state level) while still having time to print general election ballots is around mid-September.  So, particularly, in a presidential election year, primary season runs from February through September.

We are down now to the last four states to hold primaries.  (Louisiana, technically, does not have a primary.  Instead, they use a semi-nonpartisan general election on which all candidates from all parties appear on the general election ballot with a runoff several weeks later if nobody gets a majority.)

Up first is Massachusetts on September 3.  There are no democratic primaries in Massachusetts.  At the federal level, there are two Republican primaries — for U.S. Senate and the Eighth District.  There are three candidates, but only one has raised over $1,000,000.00.  It has been three months since the last poll.  At the time of the last poll, all three were neck and neck with the largest number of voters going to undecided.  In short, none of these candidates look likely to beat Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren.  Likewise, in the Eighth District, there are three candidates, but none have raised any substantial amount as of the last disclosure reports.  Again, the “winner” of this contest is not likely to seriously challenge Democratic Representative Stephen Lynch in the fall.

The other three states hold their primaries on September 10 and are all on the east coast.

The most significant of the three is New Hampshire.  The big news in New Hampshire is that Republican Governor Chris Sununu and Democratic Representative Ann Kuster are not running for reelection which has drawn large fields to both primaries for both parties.  But New Hampshire is a lean Democrat state and, in redistricting, New Hampshire opted to keep both of its congressional seats as swing seats rather than trying to create a Republican and Democratic safe seat.  Thus all of the races — Governor and both congressional seats drew multiple candidates for the primary.

For governor, on the Republican side, while there are six candidates running, polls seem to show that former Senator Kelly Allotte is a solid favorite.  On the Democratic side, there are three candidates running, but the race seems to be neck and neck between Joyce Craig and Cinde Warmington.

For the First District, Democrat Chris Pappas is running for reelection.  He should easily win the Democratic primary.  On the Republican side, seven candidates are running.  The leading candidate in terms of fundraising is Russell Prescott who finished fourth in the Republican primary in 2022.  However, none of the Republican candidates is polling above 20% in the most recent polls and the majority of voters are undecided.  That probably benefits Prescott as he has the money to spend on ads to read the undecided voters but a certain convicted felon could certainly have a big impact if he made an endorsement.

For the Second District, you have two strong Democratic candidates — Maggie Goodlander who recently stepped down from being Deputy Assistant Attorney General (U.S.) and Colin Van Ostern who ran for governor back in 2016.  The race is currently close and both have raised significant amounts.  The Republicans have fourteen!!! candidates running.  Of the fourteen, three have raised significant amounts.  From polling, the race seems to be between two of those three — Vikram Mansharamini and Lilly Tang Williams.  But there are a significant number of undecideds (around 50%) and this is a Republican primary so I would not count out Bill Hamlen who has the ability to self-fund a massive campaign in the last two weeks.  Again, with poll numbers like this, an endorsement from the serial fraudster could swing this race to anybody.

The other two states on September 10 should be relatively boring.  In Rhode Island, technically, you have a U.S. Senate primary on both sides.  But Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse should win easily on the Democratic side, and, for a senate race, neither Republican candidate has significant funding.   Both parties have two-candidate primaries in the First District but neither look competitive.  There is only one candidate running in each party in the Second District.  But neither district looks competitive in November.

In Delaware, the story is both similar to and different from New Hampshire.  It is similar in that there are several open seats causing a bit of a shuffle.  It is different in that the seats in Delaware should stay in Democratic hands.  But the last time that everybody knew what was going to happen in Delaware (2010), the grassroots upset those expectations and the U.S. Representative who was supposed to become a Senator lost in the Republican Primary allowing Democrats to keep the seat.  (A reminder that sometimes just showing up and running is the most important thing in politics.)

The Democratic governor is term-limited, and three Democrats are running for the seat.  The top two candidates are the current Lieutenant Governor, Bethany-Hall Long, and New Castle County Executive, Matt Meyer.  While from the titles, it might seem like the incumbent Lieutenant Governor, has an advantage, but Delaware only has three counties, and New Castle contains the majority of the population in Delaware.  As such, the County Executive slot has previously served as a launching pad for statewide elections. The polling in this race has had split results, and both candidates can point to polls showing them in the lead, but it is close, and about one-third of the voters are still undecided.  There are three Republican candidates, the most viable of whom is the current Republican caucus leader in the State House, but whomever wins will be an underdog as both of the leading Democrats are strong general election candidates.

With the current lieutenant governor trying to become governor, that creates an open race for lieutenant governor.  You have three candidates on the Democratic side, a state senator, a state representative, and a party vice-chair.   For some reason, the political action group sponsoring polling for this race has included candidates who didn’t file and others as options.  The three candidates who did file poll in the low double digits (less than forty-percent total).  As a result, nobody knows who is up in this race.    As there is only one Republican candidate, there will not be a Republican primary.

Something similar has happened on the Congressional side.  Senator Tom Carper opted against seeking a fifth term.  And U.S. Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester is seeking to move up to the Senate thereby creating two open seats.  Unlike the race for governor, however, the race for Senator did not result in multiple candidates entering.  Representative Rochester has the field to herself on the Democratic side, and only one Republican filed. As such, we already know who will be on the ballot in November.

And that leaves the battle for Congress.  Three Democrats and two Republicans filed.  On the Democratic side, the only candidate who has raised any significant amount of funds (and the expected next representative from Delaware) is State Senator Sarah McBride.  Two potential challengers did raise decent amounts but ultimately decided not to file.  Neither Republican has raised any significant amount.

My expectation is that the September 3 primaries in Massachusetts are not worth paying attention to.  None of the Democratic incumbents have serious opposition in the primary, and none of the Republican primaries will produce a candidate who is viable in November.

For the week of September 10, the primaries that seem most interesting are the Democratic primary for governor in New Hampshire, both primaries for the Second District in New Hampshire, the Democratic primary for Governor in Delaware, and the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor in Delaware.  In New Hampshire, depending on the results of the primaries, these races could be competitive in the fall. In the other three states, the Democratic nominees will be heavily favored in November.