While there are some significant states that close before 8:00 p.m. Eastern, that time marks when election coverage truly kicks off.  Aside from the realities of the broadcast networks that as for two basic reasons.  First, as discussed last weekend, vote counting is slow.  Since people in line when the polls “close” can still vote, it takes some time to actually shut down a polling place (both in getting the last people processed and out and in the procedures to secure the election materials after the polling place closes).  And then the counting usually have to be transported to some central location for the local election authority.  Thus, the first hour of returns tend to be the results of early voting and absentee ballots (in those states which release those separately from the election day returns) and a handful of smaller counties.  It is only in the second and third hour of counting that you start getting the rest of the smaller counties and the first returns from the really big counties.  Second, not every state closes at 7:00 p.m., local time, and a good chunk of the states are not in the Eastern time zone.  Only two states (Indiana and Kentucky) close at 6:00 p.m. local time.   While 7:00 p.m. is one of the more popular local times to close, only nineteen states close then (and only five of those are in the Eastern time zone).  Four states (Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia) close at 7:30 p.m. local time.    The most popular poll closing time is actually 8:00 p.m. when twenty-two jurisdictions close their polls.  You have two states (Tennessee and Nebraska) which despite being split in two time zones have opted to have all the polls close at the same real time (meaning in the eastern part of the state, the polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time while in the western part of the state, the polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time).  Lastly, two states (New York and North Dakota) close at 9:00 p.m. local time.

So when 8:00 p.m. Eastern time rolls around, you have polls closing in the ten jurisdictions wholly in the Eastern time zone that close at 8:00 local time.  You also have the polls in the western part of Florda closing at what is 7:00 p.m. local time in that part of Florida to finish out Florida.  You have the polls closing at 8:00 p.m. local time in the part of Michigan in the Eastern time zone (all but the Western part of the Upper Peninsula), You have the polls closing simultaneously at either 8:00 p.m. local time or 7:00 p.m. local time in Tennessee.  You have all of the polls closing at 7:00 p.m. local time in Alabama, Illinois, Mississippi, Missouri, and Oklahoma.  And you have polls closing at 7:00 p.m. local time in the eastern parts of Kansas, South Dakota, and Texas.  Of those last three states, only South Dakota is roughly evenly divided geographically between Central and Mountain time and only tiny slivers of Kansas and Texas are in the Mountain time zone.  In short, you go from approximately ten jurisdictions being closed, to the majority of almost thirty jurisdictions being closed.  For all intents and purposes, election night starts at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

As the hour starts, we should have already had some expected projections from the early states.  And the early news is more likely to be bad news than good news, but it is expected bad news that should not cause people to panic.  Barring a miracle, by 8:00 p.m. Eastern, the networks and the AP will have projected Donald Trump the winner in Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and West Virginia.  They will also have projected the Republicans as winning two Senate seats (Indiana and West Virginia) to one for the Democrats (Vermont) for a gain of one although it is possible that the Virginia Senate seat might also be projected before 8:00 p.m.  And most of the early House seats projected will be Republican with a couple of seats gained in North Carolina.

For the states closing at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, we already discussed Florida in Saturday’s post.  The statewide races will not be projected before 8:00 p.m.  The hope is that at 8:00 p.m., it will be too close to call in Florida.  Democrats are not going to win Florida by a large margin, and we would rather not hear from Florida for another hour or two.

Moving to the states that will be closing at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time, one of the first states to be projected will probably be Alabama (closing at 7:00 p.m. local time).  There is not a lot to be interested about in Alabama.  Donald Trump could be caught with a dead boy in his bed over the next week and he would still win Alabama.  In 2021, the Republicans engaged in a ruthless gerrymander to keep the congressional delegation at 6-1.  The only legal problem with their map was that it split African-American voters to avoid having a second African-American majority district.  The court’s forced Alabama to fix that problem.  As such, the expectation is that the Democrats will gain a seat in Alabama — the second district.  While this will not, by itself, counteract the shenanigans in North Carolina, it will be a start on the path back.

Connecticut should also project quickly after 8:00 p.m.  Vice-President Kamala Harris should win Connecticut easily as should Senator Chris Murphy.  The Democrats currently control all five House seats.  Two of those seats –the second and the fifth are only lean Democrat seats, and the Republicans have put a lot of money into the fifth seat.  While current Representative Jahana Hayes should be reelected, this race might take an hour or two before the result is clear.  Connecticut also has a proposition to change the state constitution to authorize no excuse absentee voting.

While there will be some shuffling of the occupants of the various officers (with current Governor John Carvey and current Senator Tom Carper stepping down and current Representative Lisa Rochester running for Senate), the results in Delaware should be projected relatively quickly with Democrats winning the statewide races.

Similarly, we should get very quick projections out of D.C. with the three electoral votes going to Kamala Harris and delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton returning for another term to try to use the power of her voice to prevent Republicans from abusing the residents of the District.

Illinois will also be closing at the top of the hour (7:00 p.m. local time). The sheer size of the state may delay the projection of the presidential results, although it should still be put in the Vice-President’s column by the end of the hour.  To the extent that there is any story in the state, it will be at the congressional level.  Democrats currently have a 14-3 edge in the congressional delegation, but that majority is based on having swept the six lean Democrat seats.  The closest of the six seats, and the one in which the Republicans are making the most effort is the seventeenth district in the northwest corner of the state, currently held by Eric Sorenson.  Even with the effort by the Republicans, Representative Sorenson is well-funded and looks likely to be reelected, but, if the Republicans are making any gains in Illinois, it will be the seventeenth district.

I wish I could report that Kansas has woken up to the disaster that Republican policies have been for that state, but they haven’t.  The presidential race will not be projected until the tiny part of Kansas in the Mountain time zone closes at 9:00 p.m. Eastern (7:00 p.m. local time), but it should be abundantly clear by that time that Trump has won.  The only congressional seat being closely contested is the third district in the suburbs of Kansas City which is a toss-up seat with a very tiny Democrat advantage.  As with the seventeenth district in Illinois, Republicans are making a serious effort (again) to defeat Representative Sharice Davids, but she appears to have the resources and the local support to win.

Maine is an interesting state for two reasons.  First, it awards it’s electoral vote by congressional district.  Second, it has ranked choice voting.  The first district is a pretty solid Democrat district.  The second district leans Republican.  Vice-President Harris should get the two state-wide electoral votes and the first district.  Senator Angus King should be reelected.  Representative Chellie Pingree should be reelected in the first district.  The battles are all in the second district.  It is more likely than not that Trump will get the electoral vote for the second district.  The Republicans are doing their best to defeat Representative Jared Golden.  There is a write-in candidate in the second districts, but that is unlikely to be enough to make it necessary to look at second preferences.  There aren’t any quality independent polls of the second district, and the thought is that Representative Golden probably has a narrow lead.  The presence of a campaign finance proposition on the ballot may help Representative Golden.  This is one of the vulnerable seats which Democrats need to keep if they want to take the House.

Maryland should be a solid Democratic state.  And Vice-President Harris will win the presidential race.  Larry Hogan built up a reputation for independence.  That is making the open senate seat closer than it should be.  While Larry Hogan might vote the right way on a decent number of issues in the Senate, a Senator Hogan would mean that Democratic priorities never reach the floor.  Most of the congressional races will not be close.  But the sixth district is a lean Democratic (D+2) district, and, rather than continue a career of having to fight for his life every two years, Representative David Trone tried for the Senate (but lost in the primary).   With the sixth district up in the air, the Democrats have contributed to their candidate, and the Republicans have not matched that fundraising.  It is still possible that Democrats could lose this seat, but Democrats have done all they could to keep this seat, and it should be enough.

There is literally no mystery about what is going to happen in Massachusetts.  The state and all of its congressional districts are solidly Democratic.  Vice-President Harris, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and all of the House members on the ballot will win.

If we are lucky, Michigan is decided early in the night.  Some changes since 2020 make it likely that we will not be waiting several days for the result, but it probably will go into Wednesday morning.  If Vice-President Harris loses Michigan, she is probably in serious trouble as Michigan is more favorable for her than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  Senator Debbie Stabenow opted to not run for reelection.  Current Representative Elissa Slotkin is favored to win that seat.  Like the presidential race, if the Democrats do not hold this seat, it is likely that the Democrats are losing other less favorable races.  There are four House seats that could be close.  The third district is a toss-up seat that slightly favors the Democrats.  Representative Hillary Scholten is favored to win, but it will be closer than Democrats would like.  With Representative Slotkin running for the Senate, the seventh district is an open seat.  The seventh district is as close to a toss-up as you can get (R+2), and the Republicans are slightly favored to win this seat.  If the Democrats can hold this seat, that will be a big step toward regaining the majority.  The eighth district is another toss-up seat (R+1), and Democrats are very slight favorites to keep this seat.  The last close race is likely to be in the tenth district.  This district has a slight Republican lean (R+3), and Representative John James is not a strong candidate as much as the Republicans would like him to be.  But it is unclear that the Democrats managed to find a strong opponent.   Simply put, Democrats would love to sweep these four seats.  Republicans would like to win two or three of these seats.  All of these contested districts are in the “mainland” part of Michigan and so returns should start coming in for these districts during this hour, but it will take some time to figure out the winners in these races.

Like their counterparts in Massachusetts, there is zero mystery of what will be happening in Mississippi when polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time.  President Trump will get the electoral votes, the Republicans will keep the Senate seat and keep their 3-1 split in the congressional delegation.

I wish I could say that I expect the Democrats to do well in Missouri.  Missouri voters have had a tendency over the past decade to vote for Democratic policies on the ballot issues but then elect the very people who refused to put those policies in place at the legislature.  And that seems likely to happen again.  The Democrats running for U.S. Senate and the statewide offices are a good bunch of quality candidates.  And the presence of reproductive freedom and minimum wage/paid sick leave on the ballot should help.  And Senator Josh Hawley basically writes the reasons why he should not be reelected.  Other than needing his vote, it is hard to imagine that any Senate Republican would be sad to see him go.  (Their preferred solution would probably to appoint him Ambassador to Mongolia and have a less annoying Republican placed in the seat.)    My expectation is that the statewide numbers are going to be closer than outsiders might think that they will be, but taking the Senate seat, the Governor’s mansion, or any of the current House seats is a long shot.  But voters are likely to adopt a constitutional amendment protecting reproductive freedom and a proposition that would increase the minimum wage and mandate paid sick leave.  On the other side, there is a ballot proposition that is being sold as preventing non-citizens from voting but is really about preventing open “top two” primaries and ranked choice voting.

New Hampshire is one of the few states that opted for competitive districts rather trying to draw safe districts.  As the state slightly leans Democratic, both Congressional districts also lean Democratic.  While the second district is an open seat, the expectation is that Democrats will keep both seats.  While the presidential race is closer than Democrats would like, Vice-President Harris should win.  The real race of the night is for governor.  With Republican Governor Chris Sununu opting against seeking another term, former Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte is trying for a comeback.  The polls in New Hampshire are showing Senator Ayotte with a slight lead, but within the margin of error.

New Jersey will see some shuffling of offices.  The former Senator had to resign due to a corruption conviction, but it is extremely likely that Representative Andy Kim will win and keep the Senate seat in Democratic hands.  It seems likely that the Democrats will keep the seat that Representative Kim is leaving in the third district.  Any fireworks in New Jersey is likely to come from the seventh district.  This district is a toss-up district which Republican Representative Tom Kean won in 2022.  Representative Kean took the seat from the Democrats in 2022 by about 3%, and both sides have poured money into this race.  It may be several hours before the winner of that race is known.  Taking this seat back would be a good step toward regaining the House.

Oklahoma is solidly Republican.  It seems likely that everything here will be called rather soon after the polls close.

Which brings us to the state that everybody will be watching until the early morning (or longer) — Pennsylvania.  As in 2020, it is likely that the election day results will favor the Republicans but the absentee votes (which will come in much later) will favor the Democrats.  The question is how big of a lead will the Republicans have from election day voting and how much will Democrats have banked from mail-in voting.  Right now, if you look at the polls, Pennsylvania seems to be the closest state and the tipping point state in the presidential race.

Additionally, there is the contested Senate race involving Senator Bob Casey and somebody from Connecticut who couldn’t even with the primary in 2022.  Unfortunately, that somebody has a lot of his own money and is willing to spend it.  My expectation is that ultimately Senator Casey will prevail (and if not, we are probably looking at something along the line of a 55-45 Senate).

While Pennsylvania will probably not be the state that decides the House, there are several seats that could make it easier for either party to win the House.  There are five seats that could potentially flip in Pennsylvania.  The first district is a toss-up district (Even) that should slightly favor Democrats, but, despite the Democrats best efforts to defeat him, Republican Brian Fitzpatrick keeps on surviving.  The seventh and eight districts, on the other hand, are two toss-up districts that slightly favor the Republicans but are currently held by Democrats.  The Republicans have put a lot of money into these two seats, but the Democrats have been more than able to match those numbers.  The tenth district is a lean Republican district, but the current Republican representative is too conservative for such a close district.  It would take the Democrats having a strong night in Pennsylvania, but a pickup in this district is possible.  Lastly, there is the seventeenth district which has similar numbers to the first district.  The bottom line is that the betting money is that these five seats stay where they are (a 3-2 Democratic split), but if either party is outperforming expectations in Pennsylvania, they could pick up a seat or two which would definitely help the effort to win the House.

Rhode Island is another one of those low mystery states.  Vice-President Harris should win and the Democrats should keep their Senate seat and both House seats.

Unlike most of the other states split between two time zones, there is substantial population in both halves of South Dakota.  But South Dakota is not a close state in terms of the expected votes.  This state will be projected as soon as the polls close in the western part of the state at 9:00 p.m. Eastern (7:00 p.m. local time).

Tennessee (like Nebraska in an hour) opts to have polls close across the state at the same time — 8:00 p.m. local time in the eastern part of the state; 7:00 p.m. local time in the western part of the state.  In a rational univere, Senator Marsha Blackburn would be facing a serious challenge as would one or two of the representatives.  Tennessee should be a 7-2 state with Memphis and Nashville each electing a Democrat to Congress.  But freed to do a partisan gerrymander, the Republicans opted to carve the Nashville area into three districts — none of which are competitive.  So the odds that Democrats could pick up one of the eight districts currently held by Republicans is essentially nonexistent.

Texas is the last state closing at the top of the hour, and it is only closing in the Central time zone.  The western part of the state near El Paso is in the Mountain time zone.  Texas has been the white whale that Democrats have thought they could win for the past two decades.  Part of the problem has been that demographics are not as good on the ground as on paper.  While folks in the northeast may think of Hispanics as a homogenous group, they are not.  While not quite as pronounced as the Cuban population in Florida, the Tejano population in Texas is definitely distinct from other Hispanic groups.  (For the purposes of this analysis, a Tejano is somebody from the southern part of Texas with family roots going back decades which in some cases precede Texas being a state.)  The local Republicans have definitely made effort to persuade the Tejano population that their interests lie with the Republican party, and many Tejanos see a big distinction between themselves and recent immigrants and have no problem with anti-immigrant policies.  In short, a good chunk of the Hispanic population in Texas in the rural parts of the state are only slightly more favorable for Democrats than their non-college educated Anglo neighbors.  The Democrats hope in Texas is based on urban Hispanics in the big cities rather than rural Hispanics in the Rio Grande Valley.

In short, Texas remains a bit of a reach for Democrats.  If Democrats are winning the presidential election in Texas, they have probably carried all of the core swing states.  But the Senate race might make a difference.  Senator Ted Cruz is possibly the most disliked member of the Republican caucus in the Senate by other Republicans and has been caught in several tone deaf acts and comments during his time in office.  The majority of the polls show Senator Cruz in the lead, but some show a lead of only 1% (very easy to overcome with a favorable movement of the undecided voters) while others show a lead in the high single digits.  Texas is one of the two or three states where Democrats could pickoff a Republican Senator and is probably the best chance of the three.   Given how many vulnerable seats the Democrats have, winning Texas would drastically improve the Democrats chances of keeping control of the Senate.   But a Democratic win in Texas would be very narrow.  In other words, don’t expect a projection for two to four hours in this race.

Texas has thirty-eight House seats.  But Republicans have done their best to gerrymander the state so that the general election does not matter.  There are maybe three seats that are flippable — two currently held by Democrats and one held by Republicans.  Not surprisingly, all three include parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley.  The Fifteenth is a toss-up district (R+1) currently held by the Republicans.  Their candidate appears to be popular in the district and does slightly better than a generic Republican.  It’s winnable, but it is not going to be easy.  Democrats have put a good chunk of money into the district, but the incumbent has done even better in fundraising (one of the few vulnerable districts where this is true).  The Twentieth-Eighth is currently held by Representative Henry Cuellar, the Democrat who drives progressives mad.  This district is D+3 which should make it safer but Representative Cuellar has legal issues.  But his challenge probably lacks enough funding to flip the district.  Lastly, there is the Thirty-Fourth District which is a rematch from 2022.  While this district (D+9) is closer than other districts in the state, it should still be a safe district.  However, the Republican candidate outperformed expectation in 2022and is well-funded.  It should be a hold, but it might take several hours for that to become clear.

Lastly, at the bottom of the hour (7:30 p.m. local time), the polls will close in Arkansas.  Arkansas is another state that has little mystery.

So back to the bottom line, there are several races from this hour to pay close attention to.  For President, you should keep an eye on Maine (especially the Second District), Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.  For Senate, you should keep your eye on Maryland, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Texas.  For Governor, you should keep your eye on New Hampshire.  For the House, the races to follow closely are the seventeenth district in Illinois, the third district in Kansas, the second district in Maine, the sixth district in Maryland, the third, seventh, eighth, and tenth district in Michigan, the seventh district in New Jersey, and the first, seventh, eighth, tenth, and seventeenth in Pennsylvania.   Most of the House seats are currently held by Democrats and that list only includes three Republican seats.  The races in which the polls are closing this hour are where Democrats could lose the House.  The big chances for Democrats to gain a significant number of seats are later in the night.

The other thing to be looking for during this hour (as will be true throughout the night) is projections from the earlier states.  For the polls that closed at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time, two hours should be enough to project states in the “too early to project” column or to move them to the “too close to decide” column, and most of the returns from the larger Republican pockets should have come in.  As such, any race in which Democrats are leading from that first batch of election day returns are races that Democrats should win as the trend line in those races should favor the Democrats as the evening progresses.  If the vote totals are showing Republicans with a 4-5% lead, it could be several more hours until we know the winner.  At this point, even if every race were projected, it would not be enough to determine the President or control of Congress.  But whether we have projections in key states yet will give us a clue as to how the rest of the evening will progress.