Category Archives: 2020 Convention

GOP and NC trade demands as Charlotte 2020 convention is at risk

By Matt | Published May 31, 2020

The GOP and North Carolina are playing a bit of chicken over the 2020 convention. Simply, the GOP wants to be able to hold their convention as they see fit, with whatever health guidelines they want and don’t want. Given the COVID situation, North Carolina is unable to give those assurances at this time. But time is running out on the GOP’s ability to move the convention:

Republicans planning their party’s convention traded demands with North Carolina’s Democratic governor this week over holding the event in Charlotte in August, as President Trump pressures Democratic leaders in the state to allow him to host the kind of convention he wants despite concerns about the coronavirus pandemic.

The Republican National Committee chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel, and the president of the convention committee, Marcia Lee Kelly, wrote to Gov. Roy Cooper on Thursday, giving him a deadline of June 3 to approve safety measures to prevent the spread of the virus during the event. Continue Reading...

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Florida mayors chime in on hosting 2020 GOP Convention

By Matt | Published May 28, 2020

While talks between North Carolina and the GOP continue, Florida mayors had their say:

St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman:

“Putting on an event of this size and scale takes months and months of preparation, so I don’t see how realistically that could even happen, so I think it’s a non-issue.” Continue Reading...

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NC to GOP: Your move

By Matt | Published May 27, 2020

North Carolina secretary of Health and Human Services Mandy Cohen sent a letter to the head of the 2020 GOP Convention, basically saying, you want to be in Charlotte? What’s the plan?:

As we work together, it is important to have a written plan from you and your team as soon as possible for how you plan to approach the COVID-19 safety aspects of the convention. A written plan provides a necessary and valuable starting point to planning discussions with our public health teams at the county and state levels. …

We also discussed on Friday the need to plan for different levels of impact of COVID-19 so the RNC convention logistics could be tailored to the COVID-19 situation we find ourselves in at the end of August. As you know, North Carolina is now in Phase 2 of easing restrictions but this Saturday we saw our highest day of new lab confirmed COVID-19 cases in North Carolina. The status of COVID-19 infections in our state and in the Charlotte area continues to rapidly evolve, thus, it will be important to have several scenarios planned that can be deployed depending on the public health situation. Continue Reading...

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GOP Site Selection back on?

By Matt | Published May 26, 2020

Yes, we’re having fun with this, but both the Governors of both Florida and Georgia tweeted today offering their states to hold the 2020 GOP convention:

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Trump suggests moving GOP convention out of Charlotte

By Matt | Published May 26, 2020

First the Times reported on Thursday

Mr. Trump, who was heavily involved in the staging of his last nominating convention, has even shown a new openness to participating in a scaled-down event. He has mused aloud to several aides about why the convention can’t simply be held in a hotel ballroom in Florida, given all of the health concerns and the fact that Florida is further along in reopening portions of the state.

But with expensive contracts signed and money raised, the event is unlikely to move from Charlotte — unless the Democratic mayor and governor there say it can’t be held. Continue Reading...

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Convention update

By Matt | Published May 25, 2020

A month ago I, and pretty much everyone outside of Trump and his circle, were pretty sure there was no way either party could hold on in-person convention. Now, I’m not so sure. I mean they could put 100 people in a walled off TV studio on the floor of the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, and Trump could give his speech, and the networks would have to cover it as the official convention speech – even if all the other convention activities were virtual.  And if it’s clear the GOP will hold some sort of in-person convention, will Biden feel he has to do the same?

Here’s a summary of how we got here over the last few weeks:

  • On May 12, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee passed the changes necessary to support a virtual convention. Nothing from the GOP, yet, but they could make similar changes anytime they wanted to.
  • Yahoo News floated the following options:

The roll-call vote could potentially take place with one representative from each state entering the hall to announce their vote, one DNC member told Yahoo News. Another DNC member floated the idea of having each state’s representative join the broadcast by teleconference from a symbolic location in their state, such as a capitol building. Continue Reading...

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VP Sweepstakes

By tmess2 | Published May 23, 2020

It appears from news reports that we are moving into stage 2 of the Biden campaign’s search for a vice-presidential nominee — the vetting process.  Broadly speaking, there are three things that influence the pick of a vice-presidential nominee:  1) vetting (anything that disqualifies a candidate); 2) political consideration; and 3) personal compatibility.

When it comes to vetting, everybody has something that could be used against them by the opposition.  Unless you have been living under a rock, every politician has voted for some bill or worked on some project that some people will not like (or at the very least can be twisted into something unpopular).  I have seen state and local races where ads have been run attacking candidates for using dedicated training funds to attend training programs in vacation-type locations.  (Not surprisingly, groups putting on these trainings tend to choose such locations because they are attractive to potential attendees.)  In short, a candidate does not have to have done something wrong for there to be an attack ad as long as the explanation of why there is nothing wrong takes a lot of time.  The real issue with vetting is not is there something out there, but which fights are the campaign willing to have.   We are likely never going to know which candidates are eliminated because of vetting.

Political considerations are, on the other hand, something that can easily be discussed and debated.  Every presidential candidate has strengths and weaknesses — some demographic, some experience, some political, and some geographic.  For example, the last several successful presidential candidates had minimal federal experience.  In each case, the candidate picked a running mate who had a decent amount of federal experience.  Given Vice-President Biden’s extensive federal experience, he can opt for a candidate with experience at the state level or a relatively short period of service at the federal level. Continue Reading...

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With Biden the presumptive nominee, convention planning becomes much easier

By Matt | Published April 9, 2020

Now that Bernie Sanders has suspended his campaign, decisions about the 2020 Democratic Convention can be made directly by the DNC with the Biden campaign.  So where do we stand?  First, On Sunday, Biden floated the idea of a virtual convention:

Well, we’re going to have to do a convention. We may have to do a virtual convention. I think we should be thinking about that right now. The idea of holding the convention is going to be necessary. We may not be able to put 10, 20, 30,000 people in one place and that’s very possible. Again let’s see where it is — and what we do between now and then is going to dictate a lot of that as well. But my point is that I think you just got to follow the science,”

Given that the convention is now not until August, that gives Biden and the DNC another month to make a decision.  When do they have to decide by?  I would think they have until at least June 1. They certainly have to decide before construction starts in the Fiserv Forum, which is usually 6 weeks before the convention, or around the start of July. (The Milwaukee Bucks and the NBA present a completely parallel wild card, which we’ll address in a future post). Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Alaska (Updated)

By tmess2 | Published April 4, 2020

With things somewhat up in the air about Wisconsin, Alaska is the next state to complete its voting.  Alaska is one of the states that moved from a caucus to a party-run primary since the last cycle.  In response to Covid-19, the Alaska Democratic Party has moved to a vote-by-mail election.  Ballots are supposed to be received by April 10, and the state party will release the results on April 11.

Alaska is using a ranked-choice ballot with candidates being eliminated (starting with the candidate with the least votes) until all of the remaining candidates are viable.  With only two candidates still running, even if some small segment of voters who voted early have another candidate as their first choice, the final count after preferences are distributed should leave only Senator Sanders and Vice-President Biden with votes on the final count.  Under the rules for the primary, because only viable candidates will be left in the final count, there is no difference between the final total votes and qualified votes.

What makes delegate math unusual in Alaska is the fact that it is a single-district state.  Under the rules, the allocation of delegates is calculated separately for each of the three pools, but the state-wide results are used to allocate all three pools.  The fact that the pools are calculated separately gives a different result than if all the delegates were allocated as one pool. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Wisconsin (UPDATEDx3)

By tmess2 | Published April 2, 2020

As of this moment in time, it looks like Wisconsin will be proceeding with their April 7 primary, sort of.  The sort of is that a judge has extended the deadline for mail-in votes which — under the ruling — can be mailed in after April 7 as long as the ballots are received by April 13.  It is unclear whether the various local election authorities will still be releasing the in-person vote totals on April 7 or if the results will be held until April 13.  [UPDATE:  This morning, the judge who granted the extension on mail-in ballots issued a revised order requiring the election results to be held until the afternoon of April 13.  Effectively, that makes the party-run primary in Alaska — ballots due on April 10 with results to be released on April 11 — the next set of results that we will receive, unless an appellate court sets aside the current order which is always a possibility.  UPDATE 2:  On Monday afternoon, the U.S. Supreme Court issued an order staying the District Court’s ruling.  Under this order, all absentee ballots must be postmarked by April 7 and received by April 13.  Apparently, results can be released after the polls close, but that is not 100% clear.  UPDATE 3:  The state election authority in Wisconsin has directed local election officials that they should not release results until April 13 under the part of the court order that was not stayed.  It is unclear how binding that is and some local officials may release results earlier than April 13.]

We are now officially down to two candidates.  And that makes delegate math relatively simple barring the unlikely event of uncommitted getting delegates.  Wisconsin has eight congressional districts with between five and eleven delegates each.  At the state level, Wisconsin has ten party leader delegates and nineteen at-large delegates.  Overall, Wisconsin has eighty-four delegates.

The Seventh District has five delegates.  Whomever gets the most votes will win at least three delegates.  To get a 4-1 split, the winner needs 70% of the qualified vote. Continue Reading...

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