Category Archives: Bernie Sanders

Delegate Math — Week of March 14

Under current Republican rules, March 15 is the first day that a state or territory (other than the first four) can hold a winner-take-all or winner-take-most primary.   Four of the five primaries scheduled for this week have some kind of winner-take component (at least for the state-wide delegates).  This week also features the home states (and perhaps the last stand) of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Governor John Kasich of Ohio.

As discussed Friday night, Illinois is an unusual state — especially on the Republican side.  In all likelihood, the results will resemble a winner-take-most primary with three delegates going to the candidate who finishes first in each of the eighteen congressional districts and fifteen delegates going to the candidate who finishes first state-wide.    However, because in the congressional districts delegates are on the ballot and are directly elected, there is a chance that some delegates might be elected even if their presidential candidate loses the district.  Such an “upset” is most likely to happen in close districts.

Missouri is a pure winner-take-most state.  However, unlike most states, the winner of the congressional districts will get five delegates from each district (rather than the normal three) and the state-wide winner will only get twelve delegates. Continue Reading...

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Saturday Delegate Results

No primaries today, but we’ve got conventions and caucuses:

Update: 10: 15 pm

DC (R) Convention: 19 pledged delegates. Continue Reading...

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Who Won Last Night on the Road to #DNCPHL2016?

Before we get into my analysis – what’s you’re take?

Off the bat, I thought the biggest loser was Univision. While the young man singing the Star Spangled Banner, their production values flagged after that. The microphones didn’t seem to work well, and the juxtaposition of both English and Spanish made things difficult to understand. It seemed distracting. The interviewers kept interrupting that time was up, which brings up an overall question I have about debates: who’s voice is most important in a debate? If you’ve got two candidates on the stage legitimately engaging in discourse on a topic, do we really want the questioners to move on? I’m not talking about a free-for-all (Little Marco and Big Donald you know who you are) but a legitimate back and forth – I always thought that’s what debates were supposed to be. The moderators do get kudos for pressing for answers on tough questions, and indicating that sometimes their questions were not directly answered, but…. My other overall debate question is that in this time of technology, if moderators at ALL the debates want to enforce time limits, why don’t they just turn off the candidates’ microphones. Okay, I’m done now. onto substance. 

It was obvious that gloves were off in this session. While the candidates still showed basic respect for one another as people, they were all over one another in terms of substance. Sometimes, though, it was off base. Hillary Clinton attacked Bernie Sanders because the Koch brothers put out an ad supporting his stance on the Import-Export Bank. There is not one person who can spell “Koch” who believes that Bernie Sanders is in their pocket. She also cherry picked little pieces of major legislation to knock Sanders’ vote. Most legislation, barring naming post offices in the House, is huge. I remember pouring through the 3,000+ page ACA legislation. There are often good things and bad things in the same bill, and it’s necessary for Senators and Congressmen/women to make an overall judgement on what is best for their constituents even if they must swallow a paragraph they don’t like. It was very disingenuous of her. Continue Reading...

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The Law of Unintended Consequences

When the Republicans re-wrote the rules for 2016, they shortened the proportionality window — from a full month to two weeks.  That led to several states with Republican legislatures and Republican governors opting for a March 15 primary date — the first day on which Republican state parties can hold a primary that does not follow the proportionality rules.  In particular, the Florida Republican Party (listening to suggestions from the Bush and Rubio campaigns) opted for a winner-take-all primary.  What looked great in 2014 and early 2015, now looks quite differently after last night’s results.

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Not so much of a yawn….

Last night, Bernie Sanders won Michigan. As the count goes (which will be updated) he actually fell further behind because Hillary Clinton won more net delegates by winning a larger percentage of the vote in Mississippi.

However, the exit polls showed that the turn in the rust belt to Sanders was due almost entirely to the opinions of the electorate on jobs and trade. And interestingly, the number of both Democrats and Republicans felt that trade hurt American jobs, by 56% and 55%, respectively.

Also posted in Hillary Clinton | Comments Off on Not so much of a yawn….

Just another primary day – yawn

For us election junkies, this is nirvana – the 4th election day in the last 8.

We’ve got primaries in Mississippi (polls close 8 PM EST) and Michigan (8 and 9 PM EST), a GOP-only primary in Idaho (10 and 11 PM EST), and GOP caucuses in Hawaii (1 AM EST).

Will Sanders make it a race in Michigan? Will Kasich? Does Cruz surprise in Mississippi? Continue Reading...

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Clinton-Sanders: Dream Ticket?

Bernie and HillaryAnother day, another set of primaries. Today, on the Democratic side, the contests will be in Michigan and Mississippi. The Republicans will be in both those states, with caucuses in both Hawaii and Idaho. So what are we thinking about today?

I’ve been getting A LOT of questions lately about whether a Clinton-Sanders ticket would be a viable idea, and whether Hillary Clinton, as president, could just create a special Cabinet position for Bernie Sanders.

Also posted in Hillary Clinton, Politics | Comments Off on Clinton-Sanders: Dream Ticket?

Not so Super Sunday

We’ve got Dem caucuses in Maine, ending at 8PM EST, and a GOP primary in Puerto Rico where the polls closed at 3PM. We’ll update the delegate counts here as they come in.

8:00 update: Rubio sweeps all 23 delegates in PR. Sanders wins Maine. Looks like a delegate split of 16-9.

Pledged DelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal
ClintonSandersClintonSandersClintonSanders
Iowa232162921
New Hampshire915611516
Nevada2015712716
South Carolina391454414
Georgia7329118429
Vermont1646422
Virginia6233127433
Alabama4496509
Arkansas221052710
American Samoa424183
Massachusetts46452016646
Oklahoma1721111822
Tennessee442375123
Texas147752116875
Colorado254193441
Minnesota31461134249
Kansas102311123
Louisiana371464314
Nebraska1015311316
Maine817411218
Mississippi31532347
Michigan6367127567
Northern Marianas42592
Florida1417324216575
Illinois797724110378
Missouri3635114735
North Carolina6047826849
Ohio81621619763
Democrats Abroad4921610
Arizona4233524735
Idaho51812620
Utah62722829
Alaska31311414
Washington2774103774
Hawaii817431220
Wisconsin3848814649
Wyoming774117
New York13910838177108
Connecticut2827154327
Delaware12911239
Maryland60351717736
Pennsylvania106832112783
Rhode Island111392013
Indiana394474644
Guam43593
West Virginia1118621720
Kentucky282723027
Oregon2536733239
Virgin Islands613091
Puerto Rico362464224
California26920664333206
Montana101111012
North Dakota51311614
New Jersey79471229149
New Mexico181682616
South Dakota101021210
District of Columbia164242406
Total221818335474827651881
TrumpCruzKasichRubioUncommitted
Iowa7817
New Hampshire11342
South Carolina5000
Nevada14617
Georgia421816
Vermont88
Virginia178516
Alabama36131
Massachusetts22488
Oklahoma1315123
Tennessee33169
Arkansas16159
Texas481043
Minnesota81317
Alaska11125
Kansas92416
Kentucky171577
Louisiana181855
Maine9122
Puerto Rico23
Mississippi2515
Michigan251717
Idaho1220
Hawaii1171
Virgin Islands1125
District of Columbia910
Guam15
Wyoming12311
Florida99
Illinois5496
Missouri3715
North Carolina292796
Northern Marianas9
Ohio66
Arizona58
Utah40
Colorado34
North Dakota110
Wisconsin636
American Samoa9
New York905
Connecticut28
Delaware16
Maryland38
Pennsylvania17
Rhode Island1135
Indiana57
Total101456215417328

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Delegate Math — Week of March 7

As votes are being counted this evening (with each party having one contest scheduled for Sunday), time to look at the week ahead.  As with the previous week, all of the contests in both parties use proportional allocation of delegates (except the Republicans in Wyoming).  However, for the Republicans, each state gets to pick their own threshold (including potentially setting a threshold for winner-take-all) and decide whether to allocate all of the delegates based on the statewide result or allocate some delegates by congressional district.  For the Democrats, the key issue is how many delegates in each pool of delegate (district-by-district, at-large, and pledged party leader).  This upcoming week, there will be fewer contests — 4 for the Democrats and five and a half for the Republicans.

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Saturday Night’s Alright for Voting

We’ve got a primary in Louisiana, and caucuses in Kansas, Kentucky (R-only), Maine (R-only), and Nebraska (D-only). We’ll update the delegate counts here as they come in.

Update 11:00: Cruz takes KS, ME. Trump wins LA and KY. Sanders takes KS and NE. Clinton wins big in LA

Pledged DelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal
ClintonSandersClintonSandersClintonSanders
Iowa232162921
New Hampshire915611516
Nevada2015712716
South Carolina391454414
Georgia7329118429
Vermont1646422
Virginia6233127433
Alabama4496509
Arkansas221052710
American Samoa424183
Massachusetts46452016646
Oklahoma1721111822
Tennessee442375123
Texas147752116875
Colorado254193441
Minnesota31461134249
Kansas102311123
Louisiana371464314
Nebraska1015311316
Maine817411218
Mississippi31532347
Michigan6367127567
Northern Marianas42592
Florida1417324216575
Illinois797724110378
Missouri3635114735
North Carolina6047826849
Ohio81621619763
Democrats Abroad4921610
Arizona4233524735
Idaho51812620
Utah62722829
Alaska31311414
Washington2774103774
Hawaii817431220
Wisconsin3848814649
Wyoming774117
New York13910838177108
Connecticut2827154327
Delaware12911239
Maryland60351717736
Pennsylvania106832112783
Rhode Island111392013
Indiana394474644
Guam43593
West Virginia1118621720
Kentucky282723027
Oregon2536733239
Virgin Islands613091
Puerto Rico362464224
California26920664333206
Montana101111012
North Dakota51311614
New Jersey79471229149
New Mexico181682616
South Dakota101021210
District of Columbia164242406
Total221818335474827651881
TrumpCruzKasichRubioUncommitted
Iowa7817
New Hampshire11342
South Carolina5000
Nevada14617
Georgia421816
Vermont88
Virginia178516
Alabama36131
Massachusetts22488
Oklahoma1315123
Tennessee33169
Arkansas16159
Texas481043
Minnesota81317
Alaska11125
Kansas92416
Kentucky171577
Louisiana181855
Maine9122
Puerto Rico23
Mississippi2515
Michigan251717
Idaho1220
Hawaii1171
Virgin Islands1125
District of Columbia910
Guam15
Wyoming12311
Florida99
Illinois5496
Missouri3715
North Carolina292796
Northern Marianas9
Ohio66
Arizona58
Utah40
Colorado34
North Dakota110
Wisconsin636
American Samoa9
New York905
Connecticut28
Delaware16
Maryland38
Pennsylvania17
Rhode Island1135
Indiana57
Total101456215417328

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