Category Archives: Bernie Sanders

Pre-Labor Day Reflection: The State of the Presidential Race — Democratic Primary

By tmess2 | Published August 30, 2015

Presidential primary races follow a somewhat predictable path.  We are nearing the end of the first stage of the race for both parties — the stage in which candidates enter the race or decide not to enter the race (or leave the race when their initial efforts as a candidate prove underwhelming).   Time is starting to run out for candidates to enter the race as the last time a candidate won their party’s nomination while skipping the early primaries is 1968.

Right now the field can be split into three tiers.  In tier one, there is Secretary Clinton.  Even in the most unfavorable polls, she is getting near 50% of the vote nationally (roughly the same numbers that she got in 2008).  As long as Secretary Clinton is getting near 50%, it will be very difficult for another candidate to win the nomination given the Democratic proportionality rules.

In the second tier, you have Senator Sanders and Vice-President Biden.  Both are polling well enough that they will get some delegates.  Senator Sanders is more the anti-Clinton candidate and appeals to those who think that the party needs to run a more liberal candidate.  Vice-President Biden is more the not Clinton candidate, appealing to those who think that Secretary Clinton has too many vulnerabilities to win the general election.  Of course, Vice-President Biden has not yet entered the race.  If he decides not to run, some significant portion of those currently supporting him will decide to hold their noses and support Secretary Clinton.  While it is too early to project individual states, Senator Sanders appears to be competitive in Iowa and New Hampshire.  His problem is that both states are likely to be narrow wins.  While there are some other early states that Senator Sanders might narrowly win (although he may comfortably win Vermont on March 1), Secretary Clinton is favored to win other states by large margins.  Vice-President Biden does not currently have any early states that appear to be places where he can win.  Slightly over half (2,050 out of 3,760) of the pledged delegates come from states that hold their first tier (either a primary or local caucuses) by March 15.  While delegate counts from the caucus states are tentative, if Secretary Clinton is at or over 1,000 delegates, and neither of the other two candidates is over 800 delegates, there will be pressure for Senator Sanders and Vice-President Biden to suspend their campaigns. Continue Reading...

Also posted in Democratic Debates | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Bernie Sanders’ Black Problem

By DocJess | Published August 12, 2015

Last weekend, Bernie Sanders drew more people to events in Seattle and Portland than all the other candidates in both candidates combined for all events over the same time period. We’re talking more than 25,000 people in Seattle and Portland, and then again a few days later in Los Angeles. You may have heard that at an earlier Portland event, Sanders was unable to speak due to the stage being taken over by a BlackLivesMatter activist. BlackLivesMatter is not really a Bernie Sanders problem, but he does have a major black problem.

Polls from last night indicate Bernie Sanders currently besting Hillary Clinton in the NH primary 44-37, which is outside the margin of error. It’s been my estimation that Bernie can beat Hillary in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and probably will. But because of his “black problem”, he cannot win South Carolina or other states where the black vote is the deciding factor. When I first heard about the BlackLivesMatter dust-up in Portland, I wondered “why Bernie?” It initially seemed that the people who don’t get their heads around the concept are Republicans — so why go after someone like Bernie, who’s got more than 30 years of civil rights legislation under his belt? It turns out there are two reasons. First, one of the women who stormed the stage is a Sarah Palin supporter, and it turns out the real BlackLivesMatter people want her to apologize.

The second reason is that Bernie Sanders does have a black problem, and it’s obvious in a lot of polling. He polls well in both Iowa and New Hampshire relative to favourable/unfavourable. But that is in two lily white states. Overall, among African-Americans, Sanders trails Clinton 64/11. In North Carolina, Clinton pulls 70% of the African-American votes. The list goes on, but Sanders doesn’t do well amoungst black voters. Continue Reading...

Also posted in Civil Rights, Politics | 9 Comments