Category Archives: Cleveland

Delegate Math: Week of April 25

By tmess2 | Published April 22, 2016

New York this past week was huge for the front runners in both parties.  For both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the results in New York essentially offset everything that has happened over the past several weeks.  On the Republican side, the race stands essentially where it stood on April 1 except for 223 more delegates allocated.  On the Democratic side, the race stands essentially where it stood on March 14 except for 1197 more delegates allocated.  In other words, the New York reset basically gave Trump a glimmer of hope that he can win enough delegates to get the nomination while it put Clinton back in control of the Democratic race.  This week’s primaries feature five states that comprise the rest of the Mid-Atlantic (Maryland, Delaware, and Pennsylvania) and the last two New England states (Connecticut and Rhode Island).  For both Trump and Clinton, the hope is that this week will be mostly a repeat of New York.  For Trump that hope is a necessity because he still is behind where he needs to be on the delegate count and May is a little less friendly than this week.  Clinton also faces a potentially weaker performance in May, but she is fast approaching the point where it is mathematically impossible for Sanders to catchup on the pledged delegate count (much less the popular vote count).

Starting with the Republicans, the simplest state is Delaware — 16 delegates — winner-take-all.  There has not been much (if any polling) In Delaware.  Given the polls in neighboring states, Trump looks like the favorite to win in Delaware unless the supporters of Cruz and Kasich can unite to block him.

Maryland is only a little more complex — a winner-take-most state.  Maryland has eight congressional districts and the winner in each of those districts will take three delegates while the state-wide winner will take fourteen delegates.  Polling puts Trump near 40% with Cruz and Kasich tied for second.  There are potentially some districts that Cruz or Kasich could take.  Strategic voting would probably keep Trump from getting 12 or 15 delegates. Continue Reading...

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Credential Challenges

By tmess2 | Published April 17, 2016

In most election cycles, the credential committee of the two national convention are hardly mentioned if at all.  Any credential fight is about a handful individuals who failed to win a delegate slot challenging those who did get elected to those slots.  Because the nominee is a foregone conclusion, who actually fills the seat does not “matter” to the central business of the convention and any of these disputes are handled with the only media concerned about the result being the local papers from the delegate’s home town.

This year, with the Republican race looking close, there is at least a lot of noise about challenges to the delegate selection process.  While it is possible that some of these complaints will end up before the two credential committees, my take is that most of the current “potential” challenges will go nowhere or are not really credentials issues.  So far, it seems like there is one potential real credentials issue for the two conventions.

Continue Reading...

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Convention Games

By tmess2 | Published April 11, 2016

As each week passes, it is looking more and more likely that the Republicans are facing the great white whale of politics geeks — the contested convention.  While as discussed earlier, it is likely that the campaigns will maneuver to change the rules governing the convention, there are also some games that the candidates can play within the existing rules as set forth in the Rules of the Republican Party.

We have already seen one type of game being played — trying to “steal” pledged delegates.  As noted at this site, the national rules of the Republican Party do not give candidates the right to have input into the delegates pledged for that candidate, leaving it to the states to define what role (if any) candidates have in delegate selection.   As the folks at 538 have noted, the majority of Republican delegates are selected by party conventions or committees.  While each state has slightly different rules, a candidate with a good delegate selection strategy can slip his supporters into slots allocated to other candidates.  While these delegates are supposedly bound by state party rules and Rule 16 to vote according to their pledge on the first ballot, those state rules only bind the delegates for a certain number of ballots (mostly only the first ballot).  If nobody gets a majority on the first ballot, these stolen delegates could decide who wins on the second or third ballot.

The other games involve interpretation of the rules and the use of uncommitted delegates. Continue Reading...

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The Rules of the Convention: Part Four — Issues for the Convention

By tmess2 | Published April 8, 2016

As discussed in the previous three parts (particularly part one and part three) of this series, the rules for the two conventions are currently simply a first draft set forth in the Rules of the Republican Party (on the Republican Side) and the Call for the Convention (on the Democratic side).  When the rules committees of the two conventions meet this summer before the conventions, they will need to decide what needs to be fixed for this convention and what can wait until after the convention.

On the Democratic side, this debate will be relatively simple.  In all likelihood, the candidate with the most pledged delegates will also have the most total delegates and will control the majority of the rules committee.  Given the input that candidates have on delegate selection, it is unlikely that the delegates would approve any rules changes that dramatically alter the business of the convention.  Additionally, the fact that both of the major candidates will have enough members on each of the committees to write a minority report will put a brake on any major rule changes.  While the general purpose of the rules is to manage the business of keeping the convention running smoothly, this balance of power on the Rules Committee tends to discourage attempts to use the rules to silence the trailing candidates at a Democratic Convention.   While there are certainly minor changes that people looking at the call might want to do, most of the Democratic debate about the convention involve things like unpledged party leader delegates that are not part of the rules of the convention.  The issue about whether to make any changes to the role of these super delegates are an issue for after the convention.

The same can’t be said about the Republicans — particularly if no candidate heads into Cleveland with more than 1,100 delegates.  In a contested convention, everything about the Republican rules will be open for discussion in the Rules Committee. Continue Reading...

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The Rules of the Convention: Part Three — Organization of the Convention and Nomination Process

By tmess2 | Published April 2, 2016

In July, the individuals elected as delegates to their party’s conventions will show up in Cleveland and Philadelphia to select the nominees of their party.  As noted in Part One, each party has temporary rules:  the Republican rules contained in the “Rules of the Republican Party” and the Democratic  Rules contained in the “Call for the Convention.”  These temporary rules do include several committees that will meet before the convention to work on some of the details of the convention, including a rules committee for drafting the permanent rules.

The rules for both parties have some similarities.  There are two big differences, however.  The first involves the composition of the convention committees.  The second involves the process for voting on a nominee.

Continue Reading...

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The Rules of the Convention: Part Two — Delegate Selection and Binding

By tmess2 | Published March 29, 2016

In multiple past posts, I and others on this site have discussed the procedures by which delegates are allocated to the states and how candidates then win delegate slots.  This post deals with the process by which real live human beings are chosen to fill those delegate slots.  When the nominee of the party is settled before the convention, the actual people serving as delegates simply confirm that decision.  In a contested convention, the delegates will have to actually decide the nominee of the party.  In such a circumstance, who is filling those slots can become very significant.

As with the more general rules, there are some similarities between the Democratic rules and the Republican rules.  There are, however, very significant differences — particularly in how the two parties assure that the delegates are actually loyal to their supposed candidate.

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The Rules of the Convention: Part One — The Basics

By tmess2 | Published March 26, 2016

Normally, the rules of the two national conventions are an after-thought.  One candidate gains a significant lead in early March and the rest of the candidates drop out.  The convention becomes a coronation and the rules only matter to insiders.  This year, however, both parties may have two (or more) candidates fighting into June .  At that point, the rules may become crucial to bringing an end to the race.

This post will cover some of the basics in the rule.  With the race now entering a “calm period” with Wisconsin on April 5 and New York on April 19 before the pace picks back up on April 26, my hope is to reach at least three other topics over the next several weeks:  1) delegate selection; 2) the running of the convention itself; and 3) what might change between now and the conventions.

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An extended GOP convention could cause hotel and police problems

By Matt | Published March 25, 2016

If the GOP convention goes past four days, the logistical problems are going to be an issue:

First the hotels:

The Republican National Convention is scheduled for July 18 to 21, but many party people are “booking hotels past the 22nd and 23rd” in preparation for a contested convention, the source said.
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The RNC has blocked out most hotel rooms in Cleveland since last year, but some hotels may not be able to guarantee space after July 22 since they have weddings and other social events booked. Continue Reading...

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