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Category Archives: Delegates
The Upcoming Pennsylvania Primary, Delegate Selection and all…
This is your guide to everything you need to know about next week’s Pennsylvania primary. Even if you’ve voted many times before, there are some things you may not be aware of, so here goes.
Primary Day is next Tuesday, 26 April. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. If you need to find your polling location, click here. If you don’t know if you are registered, click here. While PA has closed primaries, there is a ballot initiative so even if you are not a registered Democrat or Republican, you can still vote.
Ballots and delegate selection processes after the jump.
New York Primary Results
New York has its say tonight. Polls close at 9PM EDT. We’ll have the results here.
9:40 PM Update: Trump wins big, Clinton wins (but not as big).
11:00 Trump wins about 90 of 95 delegates – but still not a lock to win on 1st ballot. Clinton estimated to go +29 in net delegates – and remains the odds-on favorite for the nomination.
Also posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Hillary Clinton, Primary and Caucus Results
Comments Off on New York Primary Results
Credential Challenges
In most election cycles, the credential committee of the two national convention are hardly mentioned if at all. Any credential fight is about a handful individuals who failed to win a delegate slot challenging those who did get elected to those slots. Because the nominee is a foregone conclusion, who actually fills the seat does not “matter” to the central business of the convention and any of these disputes are handled with the only media concerned about the result being the local papers from the delegate’s home town.
This year, with the Republican race looking close, there is at least a lot of noise about challenges to the delegate selection process. While it is possible that some of these complaints will end up before the two credential committees, my take is that most of the current “potential” challenges will go nowhere or are not really credentials issues. So far, it seems like there is one potential real credentials issue for the two conventions.
Also posted in Cleveland, Donald Trump, Philadelphia, PHLDNC2016
Tagged Credentials Committee, Donald Trump, Nevada, South Carolina, Virgin Islands
1 Comment
Delegate Math: New York
For the first time since February, there is only one state holding a primary during a week. It’s also one of the biggest states in the country — New York. It also comes at a surprisingly crucial time during the campaign. By mid-April, the norm is that the race is over. The lack of money for trailing candidates has typically forced them to suspend their campaign and party leaders are pressing for unity behind the likely nominee. This year, the race is different. Bernie Sanders has enough money to keep running through the convention. Republican leaders are definitely not pushing for unity behind Donald Trump.
On the Republican side, we have seen the rules that New York is using in earlier states. Delegates are awarded “proportionately” by congressional district (three in each of the twenty-seven districts or eighty-one total) and statewide (fourteen delegates). As in many states, it takes twenty percent to become eligible for delegates, and a district (or the statewide results) becomes winner-take-all at fifty percent. As in many states, the congressional district is a 2-1 split between first and second place if two or more candidates qualify. At the state level, the party rounds delegates to the nearest whole number. If there are any delegates remaining, they go to the winner. If there are too many delegates allocated, the additional delegates will be taken from the last-placed candidate. (At most, the math should lead to one or two delegates being added or subtracted.)
Heading into the primary, Donald Trump seems to be flirting with fifty percent state-wide. By mathematical necessity, if he gets over fifty percent state-wide, he will get over fifty percent in some districts. Additionally, Ted Cruz has the small problem of having attacked “New York” values while he was running in other states. He can probably convince upstate voters (and how you define upstate depends upon where in the state you live — for New York City, upstate includes Westchester and Rockland County, but for Albany and Syracuse voters, Westchester and Rockland County are part of the New York City area as is Long Island) that he meant New York City, not New York State. But only nine districts are wholly upstate (by the narrow definition). Perhaps, he can convince some New York City Republicans that he meant the values espoused by Democratic politicians, but Cruz is not likely to be competitive in the New York City districts.
Also posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Elections, Hillary Clinton, Primary and Caucus Results
Tagged Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, John Kasich, Ted Cruz
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Cruz cruising in Colorado; Sanders looks to Wyoming
A busy few days in delegate land:
Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz effectively won Colorado on Friday, as he claimed a majority of the state’s 37 national delegates.
The Texas senator dominated the seven early delegate contests at the congressional district level, a clean sweep that earned him 17 bound national delegates and an additional four unpledged delegates who declared support for his campaign. –Denver Post
Also posted in Delegate Count, Primary and Caucus Results
Tagged 2008 Democratic National Convention
Comments Off on Cruz cruising in Colorado; Sanders looks to Wyoming
Catching Up
I haven’t posted in several weeks as I ended up getting actual Influenza A (and yes, I took the vaccine). I’m not saying it was rough, but I didn’t even care that there were primaries and caucuses because I couldn’t raise my head. For those of you who know me personally, you’ll understand how low I was when I mention that for more than two weeks, I didn’t have even a sip of coffee.
There is so much to catch up on. First, Bernie is on a roll, and I have received a lot of emails and texts asking whether or not he can actually get the nomination. The answer is a full maybe. First off, those pledged delegates from the caucus states can move, as they did last Saturday as the process moves from election day to the county, district and state conventions. The split in Nevada has so far moved from 20 – 15 Clinton to 18 – 17 Clinton, but there are 8 additional delegates to allocate and the State convention in May. Maine is another state that could reallocate delegates. Will it be enough? Amazingly, it will depend on places like New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Pennsylvania and California which are normally non-starters in the primary race.
While everyone (including DCW) looks at the full delegate total, including Super Delegates, my math is a little different.
Also posted in Bernie Sanders, GOP, Hillary Clinton, House of Representatives, Politics, Primary and Caucus Results, Senate
Tagged 2016 Republican National Convention
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Wisconsin primary results
Polls close at 9 PM EDT, with 86 delegates up for grabs for the Democrats, and 42 winner-take-most delegates available for the GOP. Sanders and Cruz have small leads in the polls, but a small win by Cruz could lead to a big delegate haul. Not so for Sanders.
Update 9:30: Cruz and Sanders win. Early delegate estimates: Cruz/Trump 36/6. Sanders/Clinton: 48/38
The tables below have been updated with all results from other states over the last two weeks.
Also posted in Delegate Count, Primary and Caucus Results
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Rubio requests his delegates stay bound #rnc2016
Note the typo on the first line
Update from Matt: Alaska says Rubio will get his 5 delegates back.
Also posted in Delegate Count, GOP, RNC
Tagged 2016 Republican National Convention
Comments Off on Rubio requests his delegates stay bound #rnc2016
The Rules of the Convention: Part Two — Delegate Selection and Binding
In multiple past posts, I and others on this site have discussed the procedures by which delegates are allocated to the states and how candidates then win delegate slots. This post deals with the process by which real live human beings are chosen to fill those delegate slots. When the nominee of the party is settled before the convention, the actual people serving as delegates simply confirm that decision. In a contested convention, the delegates will have to actually decide the nominee of the party. In such a circumstance, who is filling those slots can become very significant.
As with the more general rules, there are some similarities between the Democratic rules and the Republican rules. There are, however, very significant differences — particularly in how the two parties assure that the delegates are actually loyal to their supposed candidate.
Also posted in Cleveland, Delegate Count, GOP, Philadelphia, PHLDNC2016, Primary and Caucus Results
Tagged Delegate Selection
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Arizona, Utah and Idaho (D) voting today
We’ve got a primary in Arizona (Polls close 10 PM EDT), and caucuses in Utah (D and R) and Idaho (D only)
Update: The GOP is also holding caucuses in American Samoa, although its unclear if the delegates will be bound to anyone.
Update: Trump and Clinton win Arizona. Sanders wins Utah and Idaho. Cruz wins Utah.
Also posted in Delegate Count, Primary and Caucus Results
Comments Off on Arizona, Utah and Idaho (D) voting today