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Category Archives: Donald Trump
Candidate Trump — Felon Ballot Access Restrictions and the Fourteenth Amendment
We are heading into uncharted waters. A major political party has become a cult in thrall to a person who may not be eligible to run for president (or at least barred from the ballot in several states) who insists that he should be the nominee in 2024. Add to that a martyr complex by the true believers who have taken over many state parties, and we are heading into potential chaos for the Fall of 2024.
Of course, one of the complexities is that the national election for president is when the electoral college meets and votes and sends those votes to Congress to be counted. Up until that Wednesday in December, we have fifty-one elections for presidential electors and more elections for delegates to the nominating convention. Each of the jurisdictions (states and territories) involved in these elections have different rules and procedures.
Having said that, there are several general things that are consistent from state to state. First, for the general elections, the parties certify the name of their presidential and vice-presidential candidate in late August or early September. Second, there is a state election authority which receives and processes the candidate paperwork for state and federal candidates. For the most part, these officials rarely refuse candidate filings, but they are tasked with determining whether the filing to be on the ballot is complete and shows that the candidate is eligible to run under state law. Third, decisions on whether a candidate qualifies to be on the ballot is subject to some form of judicial review. But, assuming that the election authority finds that a candidate is eligible to run, the different states have different rules on who can challenge that determination. In all, or almost every state, the opposing candidates have the right to bring such a case, but the rules as to who else has that right differs from state to state. Fourth, if, for some reason, a party’s nominee has to be replaced on the ballot, it generally falls on the state party to name a replacement. Fifth, for the presidential election, there is actually a ticket composed of the candidates for president, the vice-president, and the presidential electors. It is the last two or three where the potential for chaos emerges.
Also posted in Elections, Electoral College, Judicial, Uncategorized
Tagged Ballot Access, Donald Trump, Felon Disqualification, Fourteenth Amendment, U.S. Supreme Court
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The Republican Campaign & the Fear of Attacking Trump
Barring some major unexpected change, President Biden will not face any major opposition for the nomination next year. At the present time, his opposition is composed of fringe candiates who reject most of the Democratic platforms of the past thirty-five years.
On the Republican side, there is supposedly a nomination contest. But in many ways, we are seeing a repeat of the 2016 campaign with Donald Trump starting from a stronger position than he did in 2015. Back then, Trump was an unknown quantity as a politician and Republican voters were simply playing with the possibility of supporting Trump. Now, he is a known and the “maybe” 25% is something like a 40% certain and a 30% maybe. But the constant is that most of the top contenders are unwilling to attack Trump.
Part of the reason why Trump has emerged with only a handful willing to attack him is a general perception about negative campaigning. The problem with negative campaigning is that it has a cost. Negative campaigning is aimed at “persuadable” voters. At best, it persuades the voter leaning to the opponent to vote for you (a gain of one vote for you and a loss of one vote for your opponent or a swing of two), but it is acceptable if it merely results in the voter deciding to sit the race out (a loss of one vote for your opponent). People do not like negative campaigns and such campaigns drive up the negatives of both the candidate doing the attack and the candidate being attacked. If successful, the negative campaign drives up the negatives of the candidate being attacked more than it does the candidate doing the attacking. In the general, negative campaigning works because you tend to have two candidates with enough “certain” voters that even if all persuadable voters flipped to a third candidate that third candidate would still finish third.
Also posted in 2024 Convention, Debates, Presidential Candidates, Republican Debates, Republicans
Tagged 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Campaign, 2024 Republican Primaries, Donald Trump, negative campaigning
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The Independent State Legislature Theory, Election Law, and the Trump Crimes
Recently, a federal grand jury in the District of Columbia returned an indictment charging the Orange Menance with crimes related to his attempted coup after the 2020 election. It is expected that within a week or two a state grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia will add state charges related to the efforts of dictator-wannabe Donald Trump to convince Georgia election authorities to alter the results of the election in that state.
Much of the crimes committed by Donald Trump and his band of incompetent coconspirators were based on a flawed version of the independent state legislature theory and a misunderstanding of election mechanics.
First, the independent state legislature theory. The independent state legislature theory is based on two clauses in the U.S. Constitution. One of the clauses is found in Article I and applies to the election of members of Congress. The other clauses is found in Article II and deals with the selection of presidential electors.
Also posted in 2020 General Election, Elections, Electoral College
Tagged Criminal Charges, Donald Trump, Georgia, Independent State Legislature
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What the Indictment Might Mean for 2024
To begin with the obvious, an indictment is a document used to formally bring criminal charges against an individual (here the Orange Menace). Under the law, all criminal defendants are presumed to be innocent of the charged offense, and the prosecution has the burden to present sufficient evidence to convince twelve jurors to unanimously agree that the evidence proves that defendant guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.
There is no precise timetable for when a case must go to trial. The U.S. Supreme Court has held that, as a matter of federal constitutional law, a trial begun within eight months of charges being filed is sufficiently speedy to satisfy the speedy trial clause of the U.S. Constitution. If, as often happens, it takes more than eight months to bring a case to trial, the courts then use a balancing test to decide how long is too long. In theory, Trump might be able to delay the trial until after the 2024 election. If he succeeds in this goal, the problems for him will be mostly how much of a distraction the pending case(s) will be (both in terms of time and money) and how voters react to the charges. While it’s too early to tell for sure, the initial reaction of voters seems to be that the true believers will see any accusation against their god as persecution and an attempt to block them from electing him. This groups might be just enough to get him the Republican nomination, but this group is not large enough to get him elected. On the other hand, a significant group of swing voters seem to be tired of the chaos and criminality associated with Trump, and these charges (unless something else comes out to undermine them) seem likely to make it harder for Trump to win the general election.
The “interesting” questions come when Trump is convicted. (Most defendants are convicted. While there is an old saying that a grand jury would indict a ham sandwich, that saying is only half true. Yes, the prosecution controls what a grand jury hears, but they still need some credible evidence that the defendant committed a crime. And, after you get the indictment, you still need to win a trial. While some prosecutors might put the hand slightly on the scale to get an indictment in a case that is a close call, it does little good to bring charges when your evidence is so weak that you have no chance at getting a conviction.) And this is a question of ballot laws in the fifty states (plus D.C.) and the rules of the Republican Party.
Also posted in Elections, GOP, Presidential Candidates, Primary Elections
Tagged 2024 election, Criminal Charges, Donald Trump
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Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop
There have been signs, including a posting on his Twitter-alternative website from the Crook-in-Chief that an arrest was supposed to be about to occur, that Donald Trump may soon be the prisoner in the dock. Obviously, until charges are filed, any discussion of potential charges are just speculation. But here is what seems to be in the wind. And I did postpone writing this to see what might get filed this past week, but, since there is no guarantee about when these charges will come, I decided to go ahead with this post.
Right now, the case that appears on the eve of being filed is from Manhattan County in New York. These charges arise out of something which is, unfortunately, somewhat common with closely-held corporations — an inability to keep the corporation separate from the person. Legally, a corporation is a separate legal person from its owners, officers, and employees. The corporation is legally responsible for paying its own expenses and liabilities. The personal expenses and liabilities of the employees are supposed to be paid by the employees out of their personal funds. If the employer covers those expenses, that is considered to be compensation to the employee (or dividends to the owner) which has to be reported to the IRS and state taxing authorities as income for the employee (or income to the owner). This situation is what got the Trump Organization charged and convicted for benefits that it provided to some of the executives which were included as business expenses (and employee compensation is a business expense) on the corporate returns but not reported as income to the executives.
In Trump’s case, the issue is sexual misconduct by the CEO of the company. Now, if the company is being sued for sexual harassment of its female employees under Title VII, that is a legitimate business expense. If the CEO is sued for sexual misconduct in his personal ife, that is not a legitimate business expense, and he should be paying the settlement and the legal expenses out of his personal account. Complicating the matter for Trump is that these issues arose while Trump was running for office. That raises the issue of whether the settlements and non-disclosure agreements were for personal reasons — to avoid his spouse learning about his infidelity — or for political reasons — to avoid the public learning that the candidate is a liar and cheat who can’t even keep his wedding vows much less any other promise. It is clear that there are some fraudulent business records here as Michael Cohen and the women should not have been paid from Trump Organization accounts but whether the offense is a felony or misdemeanor depends upon whether that improper use of corporate funds where for other criminal purposes — namely avoiding tax liability on the part of Donald Trump (if Trump had paid the bills and then taken a draw from the company that would have been income to Trump and the expense would not have been tax deductible) and the Trump Organization (distribution of income by a company is not tax deductible but legal expenses are) or to avoid reporting a campaign expense (if the settlement was designed to avoid the political consequences, it would be considered to be a campaign expense).
Presidential Records
Who thought that nineteen months after he left office in disgrace, that the misdeeds of the Orange Menace would still be front and center. And, of course, when he is caught red handed, his first line of defense is take advantage of general ignorance about the finer details of the law to blatantly lie knowing that the true believers will accept whatever he says.
The first basic truth is understanding the law on presidential records. Prior to Watergate, the law was somewhat unclear. But after Watergate, the law was changed to make clear that presidential records belong to the government, not the person who was serving as president.
The distinction between the office and the person holding it has always been something taht Trump has had issues with. While he touted his business background as a reason why he would make a good president, it actually is, potentially, a contributing factor in this problem. The essence of business law is that corporations have a separate legal existence from its owners and its officers. The officers who run a company are supposed to act to further the best interests of the company rather than in their own self-interest or the interest of any group of shareholders. But time after time, corporate officers (especially if they are from the family that are controlling shareholders) get in trouble for using corporate funds for personal benefit. This problem can be even worse in closely held corporations like the Trump Organization with the corporation simply being the alter ego of the primary owner/CEO. And the Trump Organization is exhibit A in how the family that runs the corporation fails to keep the business separate from their personal affairs. Given his inability as CEO of the Trump Organization to recognize the difference between the Trump Organization and Donald Trump, it should not be a shock that Donald Trump failed to recognize any difference between the Office of the President and Donald Trump.
Tagged stolen records
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Impeachment vs. 14th Amendment vs. 25th Amendment
Up until his very last minute in office (and beyond it), Donald Trump is making history in ways that his descendants will not like. In fifty years, instead of saying that a person’s name is Mud(d), we might be saying that his name is Trump.
Right now, there are three possibilities being discussed in D.C. and on op-ed pages. Each have some legal questions associated with it.
The first option — which seems dead in the water as the Cabinet and Vice-Coward Mike Pence seem to be reluctant to take responsibility for suspending Trump’s presidency is the Twenty-Fifth Amendment. Many constitutional amendments are simple establishing one basic rule. E.g. authorizing or repealing prohibition, giving women the right to vote). Others, like about half of the bill of rights, have multiple related but separate concepts (e.g. First Amendment covering freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and freedom of assembly). The Twenty-fifth Amendment is one of those multi-part amendments addressing several aspects of presidential succession.
Also posted in Impeachment
Tagged Donald Trump, Fourteenth Amendment, Impeachment, Insurrection, Mitch McConnell, Twenty-Fifth Amendment
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Georgia, Recall Elections, Impeachment, and Removal — a Legal Primer
In the aftermath of a weak of sedition and riots, I am seeing a lot of questions about issues related to the seating (or exclusion) of Senators and Representatives. I am also seeing questions about what can be done to bring a quicker end to the mistake that was the Trump presidency.
Let’s start with the Georgia elections. As we learned in November, it takes time to finalize the election results. In Georgia, there are three key deadlines. The first is the deadline for receipt of overseas ballots and for the curing of “rejected” absentee ballots and for determining the validity of provisional ballots. That deadline was the close of business today. So, at the present time, all of the counties should know if they have any votes left to count.
The second deadline is next Friday — January 15. By that date, all of the approximately 160 counties are supposed to have completed their county canvass and certified all votes to the Secretary of State. This deadline can be extended if the Secretary of State orders a pre-certification audit (as happened in the presidential race). (It is unclear how the audit will apply to the Senate races. The state law required one for the November election but is ambiguous as to the run-off election. The Secretary of State also opted for a complete hand recount of all votes in the presidential race — which technically is not an audit — but the statute only requires an audit of random counties and precincts. If a proper – in other words, limited — audit is conducted, the counties that have to do the audit may not need an extension.)
Also posted in 2020 General Election, Elections, Joe Biden, Senate
Tagged exclusion of members of Congress, Georgia, Impeachment, Jon Ossoff, Josh Hawley, Raphael Warnock, recall elections, Ron Johnson, Ted Cruz
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The Count
To quote the Grateful Dead, “what a long, strange trip it’s been.” Our hopes for a decisive enough result that the winner would be clear on November 3 failed to come to fruition. And since then, Trump and his allies have thrown everything but the kitchen sink into denying reality. Even as late as this week, Trump’s allies have been filing meritless cases to try to have judges cancel the votes in various states. And almost all of the case have been rejected by the courts. To date, the Supreme Court has not accepted any cases, and have left most cases proceed on the normal schedule (which means no decisions on taking any of them prior to January 8 when the Supreme Court next meets).
That leaves us down to one last abuse of the legal process — the joint Congressional session to count the electoral votes sent by the states. The current process dates back to the aftermath of the election of 1876. In that election, you had a handful of states with conflicting results certified by different entities. As such, you had multiple states sending votes from individuals that had been recognized by some part of state government as the official electors. Ultimately, a commission was established to resolve those disputes. While it took around a decade to get legislation through Congress, the Electoral Count Act of 1887 set forth the key provisions that are still in place today. The current language in Title 3 sets forth a multi-stage process.
First, prior to election day, each state legislature shall set forth the rules governing the selection of electors. These rules besides designating who makes the selection also dictate the procedures to be followed during that selection, the role to be played by various state agencies (legislatures, state election authorities, and local election authorities) in running the selection process, and who has the power to resolve disputes that might arise during the selection process (courts, state election authorities, local election authorities, and legislatures). While the Constitution does not mandate the use of the popular vote to select electors (and, in the early days, some states had the legislature pick the electors), every state has now opted for using some variation of the popular vote to pick electors. And every state has adopted procedures in which the initial resolution of election disputes are made by local election authorities and state election authorities with the potential for judicial review of those decisions.
Also posted in 2020 General Election, Electoral College, Joe Biden
Tagged Electoral Count Act, Josh Hawley, Louis Gohmert, Mike Pence, Mo Brooks, Ron Johnson, Ted Cruz
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Four Weeks and Counting
After 47 months, we are almost at the end of our long national nightmare. And for his closing acts, Donald Trump is going out the same way that he came in.
Anybody who followed Trump the businessman should not have been surprised at Trump the president. For all of his propaganda about being a great deal maker, the reality was something else. There were three key lessons from Trump the businessman which have been true for this entire administration.
First, Trump was only ever concerned about what was it in it for him. Trump was never the type of businessman who big on win-win deals in which both sides gained from the deal. Instead, he wanted to get the most possible out of a deal even if it meant screwing over the other side.
Tagged commutations, continuing appropriations, corruption, National Defense Appropriations Act, pardons
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