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Category Archives: Donald Trump
Safe Harbor Day — UPDATED
Whether it is just the weirdness of 2020 or the narcissism of the Orange Menace, this post-election period has been about key dates and events. Over the past four weeks or so, one by one, despite unsuccessful attempts to have courts intervene to block them, states have certified the results of the presidential election, and the remaining states are set to do so on Monday or Tuesday. Once the appropriate authority within the state has certified the results of the presidential election, the governor is to complete and mail to the National Archives a “certificate of ascertainment.” As of today’s date, the National Archives has received just under half of these certificates.
Now normally, this process is routine. It happens, and only political geeks pay attention. But because Trump and his “lawyers” refuse to face reality, we are now facing an event that has only really mattered once before in U.S. history — the safe harbor date. If a state has concluded any dispute related to electors by six days before the electors meet, the determination by the state is “conclusive.” In 2000, the U.S. Supreme Court used this language to find that Florida wanted all election contests to end by the safe harbor date. The 2000 election is the only time that we have faced the safe harbor date having any meaning.
But we are back in that boat again. And this year, the safe harbor date is Tuesday, December 8. Despite Trump’s attempt to cast this election as a repeat of 2000 with the Supreme Court intervening to decide the election if necessary, what is happening in the courts does not support that alternate reality.
Also posted in Elections, Electoral College, Judicial
Tagged certidicate of ascertainment, Donald Trump, Pennsylvania, Safe Harbor, Supreme Court
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Where Things Stand
In part because of one sore loser, this year’s election seems to be the one that will not end. And that means that almost any post based on current information is no longer accurate several days later. As noted in previous posts, there are three big questions: 1) when are absentee ballots due; 2) when will the vote be certified; and 3) what states might be subject to recounts. There is also the never-ending litigation being filed by the Trump campaign.
At the present time, California is probably the biggest state in which we are still waiting for late absentee ballots with a deadline of Friday. At the time that I am writing this post, the margin in the Twenty-Fifth District is less than 100 votes; so late arriving ballots could be a key. In addition, a recount is a real possibility.
The other big state in which there remains a significant number of ballots to be counted is New York. At the present time, Democrats have apparently lost the Eleventh District (Staten Island). There are three Democratic districts that have not been called, but Democrats now lead in two of the three. There are also two Republican districts that have not been called, but the Republicans have significant leads in both. Whether the remaining votes will actually swing the districts is unclear.
Also posted in 2020 General Election
Tagged California, Canvass, Certification, election contests, Georgia, Iowa, New York, recounts, Utah, Wisconsin
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Labor Day 2020 — The Future of Social Security
One of the big accomplishments of the labor movement in the 1900s — both in the U.S. and in other industrialized countries — was the concept of pensions (both public and private). The basic concept behind pensions was to guarantee workers that, when they got too old to work anymore, they would have a guaranteed payment for the rest of their life.
Of course, with the decline of the labor movement, there has been a movement away from “defined benefit” plans to “defined contribution” plans. From the workers perspective, a defined benefit plan offered two significant advantages: 1) if something went wrong, the company had to make up any shortfall caused by bad investments; and 2) the company would hire a competent money manager to properly invest the funds dedicated to the pension plan. From the perspective of upper management, a defined contribution plan had two major advantages: 1) the company’s contribution was set in stone regardless of whether that investment ended up being sufficient; 2) the most economically savvy (i.e. the financial types that tend to ended up in the top tiers of companies) could get more from the pensions by making slick investment decisions while the average worker was left with measly investment gains (and maybe even losses if the default investment ended up going down the tubes).
At the public level, the big pension plan in the U.S. has been Social Security. Social Security has always been a variation on a defined contribution plan. But it has also always been a “pay as you go” type plan. These two features has always combined to create a “crisis on the horizon” situation for Social Security.
Also posted in 2020 General Election
Tagged Labor Day, payroll taxes, pensions, Social Secuirty, Tax Cuts
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Donald Trump’s Bad Day
This day started out bad for Donald Trump. He went to bed with President Obama having gotten under Donald Trump’s skin by calling out Trump’s wanna-be authoritarian tendencies.
And the day has only gotten worse. On the one hand, Divine Providence/Nature has followed through on what everyone thought was possible when the Republicans named Jacksonville as their back-up site for the RNC. This is the current five day forecast for Tropical Depression 13:
While a lot can change in five days (and five day forecasts have a good margin of error), there is a real possibility that the RNC will be dealing with a hurricane striking Florida on Monday when there convention is supposed to start. Hurricanes have been a recurring problem for the Republican Convention multiple times in the past four cycles. Of course, nobody would think to be concerned about a hurricane hitting Florida in late August.
Also posted in 2020 General Election
Tagged 2012 Democratic National Convention, Biden Acceptance Speech, Jacksonville Convention, Tropical Storm Forecast, Trump Financial Records
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The President and Subpoenas
Recently, the United States Supreme Court issued two opinions concerning the ability of different entities to issue subpoenas to a president. As the two cases involved different entities issuing subpoenas, the opinions treated them very differently.
The first case, Vance, involved a state grand jury subpoena. Over the years, the Supreme Court has considered a significant number of cases involving subpoena. Some involved subpoenas issued to private parties. Others considered federal criminal subpoenas issued to the president. The Supreme Court has also considered federal civil cases involving a president. The sum total of these prior cases is that there are rules limiting the issuance of a subpoena. In light of these cases, the Supreme Court decided that there was no blanket exemption that permitted a president to challenge a state grand jury subpoena. Nor is there a significantly different standard when the case involves a president. Instead the ordinary considerations (whether the subpoena is appropriately designed to seek information relevant to the inquiry) usually control. However, while it is not a heightened standard, a court should consider the degree to which the subpoena may interfere with presidential duty in determining whether to grant any relief from the subpoenas. In other words, the State does not need to make a different showing to justify a subpoena to a president than it would to justify a subpoena to an average business, but the president may have unique grounds that he can raise to block the subpoena.
The judge hearing the case seeking to quash the grand jury subpoena has already begun the process for considering any new objections that the president may raise (and the Supreme Court has issued its judgment in that case early). So we may get a final decision soon. However, the material will then be part of the confidential grand jury case. Thus, any financial records will not be public in the near future.
Also posted in House of Representatives, Judicial
Tagged Supreme Court, Trump subpoenas
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Supreme Court — Trump’s Position Loses; Trump wins
I will have further details on what the Supreme Court held about Trump’s taxes when I have a chance to digest everything from yesterday. But in practical terms, there are two ways to view the decision.
On the one hand, Trump’s current arguments were soundly rejected by a 7-2 vote in both cases. The president is not above the law and has to respond to proper subpoenas (with some caveats about the needs of courts to consider the burden on the presidency and the necessity of the subpoena).
On the other hand, Trump’s tax returns are still secret for the next several months. In all of the cases, as I feared, the Supreme Court sent the case back to the lower courts to take another look at the motions to quash in light of the Supreme Court’s instructions.
Also posted in Elections, Judicial
Tagged business records, subpoenas, tax returns, Trump Organization
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Religious Freedom (for some) — Supreme Court Overtime Edition 2
The big news out of the Supreme Court today is that Thursday is the last opinion day of the court. Under normal practice, the justices would hold a public session in their courtroom to announce the opinions. Opinions would be announced in reverse order of seniority (with some exceptions for companion cases) with the justice who wrote the opinion reading a brief summary of the opinion and (sometimes) a dissenting justice reading a statement as well (but such a statement is a rare event). With the Supreme Court not being open to the public (and no public information office handing out copies to reporters), the opinions are merely being posted on-line but at roughly the same pace (one every ten minutes) as would be true if the Supreme Court was actually proceeding as normal with the opinions being released in the courtroom. As we have already seen this term, sometimes the Supreme Court’s website is not quite up to the traffic associated with a major opinion. But, if you wish to go to www.supremecourt.gov at 10am EDT and repeatedly refresh, you can see the opinions as they are being released. As discussed further below, my expectation is that the Chief Justice will have one of the two (or maybe both) of the Trump tax cases. If that is the case, I would expect the Oklahoma opinion to be released at 10 (regardless of who has the opinion) followed by two Trump tax cases at 10:10 and 10:20., but there is a chance of one of the two Trump tax cases at 10:00 followed by the Oklahoma case at 10:10 and the Chief Justices opinion at 10:20. It all depends on how closely connected the holding in the two Trump tax cases are.
Today, the Supreme Court released the two remaining “religion” cases. The first case, written by Justice Alito, concerned the “ministerial exception” as it applies to school teachers. The ministerial exception has its roots in the Free Exercise Clause. Basically, under the Free Exercise Clause, the government has no power over the religious leaders of a religious organization. Courts only play a limited role in deciding intra-faith disputes and only when the issue to be resolved is a secular matter like which group of opposing claimants to leadership actually has title to the assets of a religious organization (including the right to use the name). Today’s case, however, takes the exception to (and arguably past) the breaking point. The issue is whether teachers at a parochial school are covered by the ministerial exception. On the one hand, teachers at a parochial school — especially an elementary school where one teacher handles all subject matters — do teach some religious materials and are expected to comply with a code of conduct. On the other hand, many parochial schools — while having a preference that teachers belong to the same sect that runs the school — do not expressly mandate that teachers are members of the religious group running the school. The majority — in a 7-2 decision — essentially held that all teachers in religious schools are minister based solely on the school’s assertion that it views them as ministers and that the decision to fire was based on non-religious grounds. As the purpose of the ministerial exception is to avoid courts from having to decide whether a particular minister is sufficiently “orthodox,” this broadening of the exception is significantly divorced from the purpose behind the exception. In this consolidated case, the two teachers claimed that they were fired based on age (violating the law against discriminating based on age) and medical condition (breast cancer, violating the laws governing medical leave). The schools — while asserting an absolute bar to proceeding on the merits due to the ministerial exception — asserted that they were fired because they were not good teachers. In short, religious issues had nothing to do with the case, and a court could have decided which secular reason was the main motivating factor in the decision to fire these two teachers.
The other case involved the contraception mandate. Amazingly, the majority opinion by Justice Thomas only made a passing reference to the Religious Freedom Restoration Act. Instead, the gist of the opinion was whether the Affordable Care Act gave the government discretion to create a religious exemption to the contraception mandate. Technically, the majority opinion does not resolve the final issue of whether the current regulation is valid. Instead, it merely held that the Affordable Care Act granted the government the discretion to create an exception for religious groups (and private companies) with moral objections to the mandates and that the government complied with the procedural requirements of the Administrative Procedure Act. The case is sent back to the lower court to decide if the regulation was adequately supported by the administrative record. (Which means that the future of the contraceptive mandate and this religious exemption depends on the results of the election.)
Also posted in Judicial
Tagged Affordable Care Act, Contraceptive Coverage, employment discrimination, Free Exercise Clause, Native American Rights, Supreme Court, Trump Financial Records, Trump subpoenas
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Trump, Mueller, and the Supreme Court
Earlier today, the Supreme Court issued an order list covering several cases. For political junkies, the big news from the list concerned Department of [Obstructing] Justice vs. House Committee on the Judiciary. The issue in this case is whether the House can get access to the grand jury proceedings from the Mueller investigation. Technically, the issue is whether the House’s investigation of whether Trump committed potential impeachable offenses is a “judicial proceeding” for the purposes of the Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure’s exception to the general rule of grand jury secrecy.
The big impact of today’s order is that it extends the hold on the release of those proceedings. And, given the other cases already on the docket for the Fall, it is likely that the Supreme Court will not hear arguments on this matter until December. In short, this decision means that those records will not become public until after the election.
Now how this reflects on the Supreme Court depends upon what happens in the election. If Trump loses, arguably, the case would be moot as any opinion would not come until after Trump leaves office and could no longer be impeached. It is possible that the Supreme Court could reach this issue on the theory that, given the time that it takes for the grand jury to investigate followed by the time that it takes for impeachment, the issue is capable of recurring yet escaping review (as the delay all but guarantees that any president’s term will expire before any future case with similar issues could be resolved). This exception to mootness probably better applies to the claim that the House and Senate are no longer conducting impeachment proceedings.
Also posted in House of Representatives, Impeachment, Judicial
Tagged Grand Jury, Impeachment Hearings, Judiciary Committee, Robert Mueller, Russia Investigation
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Supreme Court and Trump’s Financial Records
As I noted on Friday, the Supreme Court is nearing the end of its terms and has, at least, two opinion days for this week. Whether the two days will see all of the opinions or some will be issued after the Independence Day celebrations remains to be seen.
While there are many cases that will have impact long after this year, five cases (representing four argument slots) could directly impact this election. Two of them — the Faithless Elector cases — are about the election itself. But the other three — involving the Trump financial records — could shape the campaign.
While, technically, there are three cases, the Supreme Court consolidated argument on the two cases involving subpoenas issued by Congressional committees and are likely to issue one opinion on those two cases. The other case involves a state grand jury subpoena and will probably result in a separate opinion.
Also posted in Judicial
Tagged bank records, financial records, subpoenas, Trump Organization
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People I Hate Today
Yeah, I know, “hate” is bad….but it’s that kind of morning.
I’m starting with supposedly Democratic Congressmen Dan Lipinski and Collin Peterson who yesterday joined with the Republicans in sending an Amicus brief to the Supremes asking for Roe v Wade to be rescinded. Our tent is not that big. Legalized abortions don’t cause abortion, just make the abortions that would occur otherwise less likely to kill the woman.
And then there’s Kevin McCarthy, who has been in Congress long enough to know that when the person in the Oval Office is going to start a war, PRIOR to launching a murderous drone attack, the Gang of Eight needs to be notified. And I’m thinking about the US Constitution, Article 1, Section 8, paragraph 11, which gives Congress (and only Congress) the right to declare war. Now, to be honest, it doesn’t directly call out “CAUSING” a war, but I think the implication is inherent.
Also posted in Democrats, Disaster, House of Representatives, National Security, Politics, Rant, Republicans, War
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