Category Archives: Donald Trump

Convention Committees

By tmess2 | Published July 10, 2016

While most of the media attention is currently focused on whom might or might not still be in consideration for vice-president, a key activity over the next several weeks will be the work of the convention committees.

Because the Democrats give candidates a key role in selecting their delegates (and here in Missouri we had a bit of an uproar at our state convention due to the Sanders campaign exercising its right to trim the number of candidates for at-large delegates), the Rules Committee and the Credentials Committee tend not to be that important.  The fight this year was in the Platform Committee which wrapped up its work yesterday in Orlando.  There were several changes to the draft platform adopted at the full committee meeting in Orlando, and the revised draft has not yet been posted on the convention’s website (which does have the original version of the draft platform.)  There were some issues on which the committee had significant splits between Clinton and Sanders delegates.  It is unclear if any of these splits will lead to a minority report and debates on the floor.

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Vice-Presidential Selection — Republicans

By tmess2 | Published July 6, 2016

In the old days, the presidential nomination was often unsettled until balloting began at the convention.  Under those rules, the winning candidate typically announced his preferred running mate on the morning of the last day of the convention.  Since 1984, with each party having a presumptive nominee heading into convention, the norm has been to name the preferred running mate before the convention, most often in the week before the convention.  Based on that history, Trump should name his VP pick sometime next week.

Right now, Trump’s pick may come down to who is willing to accept the nomination that is a viable pick.  Every time the press speculates on a candidate who might actually improve Trump’s chances, that candidate withdraws their name from consideration (most recently Bob Corker and Jodi Ernst).

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Public Financing in 2016??

By tmess2 | Published July 5, 2016

In the “good old day” (pre-2004),  the norm was that the major party candidates accepted public financing.   That changed in 2004, when several candidates in the Democratic Primary decided that they could raise enough on their own without accepting the partial matching funds (and the attached per state limits on spending).  (The per state limits are probably the most arbitrary and dysfunctional part of the current rules on matching funds.)  In 2012, both major party nominees opted against taking public financing for the general election.

This year, Donald Trump just might be taking a very long and hard look at accepting public financing.  There are several reasons why public financing might look very good to the Donald.  First, he has proven completely unable to raise funds on his own.  In slightly over twelve months, he raised a total of $17 million (tossing in $45 million of his own money for the primary).  Given that the public funding for the general election is $96 million, it’s in his personal financial interest to let you and I pay for his campaign.  Second, the only way that he has any shot at raising that type of money on his own is to beg for money from lobbyists — which would contradict the image that he is trying to present.  Third, in the Citizens United era. it is easy to farm out the campaign tasks.  Given Trump’s distaste for polling, data analysis and field operations, it is very conceivable that the official campaign will just dump those responsibilities on the Republican National Committee (which would be exempt form the spending limit) and just use the campaign for ads and appearances (and a skeleton staff.)   Even if later in the race, the campaign decides that it needs to spend more on ads, it can just farm that out to a Super PAC.   Finally, there is Trump’s perception that, with his celebrity status. he doesn’t really need to do much in terms of campaigning — a “run and they will vote for you” type of delusion.

Now, I haven’t heard on the internet or the news suggesting that Trump is planning to take public financing for the general election.  I am just saying that — with public funding available immediately after the convention and the Clinton campaign getting a free-ride on ads in swing states due to Trump’s campaign being broke — you would think somebody in that campaign is running the numbers.

Also posted in Money in Politics | Tagged | 2 Comments

Independence in an Era of Interdependence

By tmess2 | Published July 3, 2016

The world is an increasingly complex place.  The biggest environmental threat is no longer the factory upstream but the practices of factories and power plants around the globe.  Terrorist attacks in countries that many have never heard of (or only heard of in relation to a benefit concert) are the lead story on the news (even though most terrorist attacks outside of the U.S. and Europe do not make the news).  Terrorist attacks at home are conducted by folks who have lived in the U.S. for an extended period, but who get their “religious” philosophy over the internet from groups based in the Middle East.

It is not surprising that we see similar responses to these issues around the globe.  In Greece, the established political parties have been tossed to the side in favor of new parties that vow to defend Greece’s interests in renegotiating its national debt with its European allies.  In the United Kingdom, a slim majority votes to leave the European Union in opposition to the EU’s control over much of the economy and immigration.  In Australia, new parties centered around single strong figures gain Senate seats will expressing concern about immigration and keeping Australia for Australians.  Across Europe, anti-immigrant parties are gaining strength.

It is also not too surprising that we are seeing the same thing in the U.S.  As the U.S. slowly approaches the day when a majority of its citizens will be from “minority” groups, we see a plurality of the Republican Party picking a nominee who vows to exclude Hispanics and Muslims from entering the U.S.  Even though imports and exports each represent about 10-15% of the eighteen trillion dollar national economy (with the net trade deficit representing about 3% of the national economy), the disruption caused by trade (and other changes like increased automation from modern technology) leaves a significant part of the population feeling battered by the new economy.   To these people, we have the same candidate pretending that all we need is a new tougher approach to trade negotiations is all that it will take to turn things around.  To terrorism, his answer is that we just need to be more aggressive, even though we have been bombing terrorist facilities for almost two decades. Continue Reading...

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Will Clinton or Trump give their acceptance speech outdoors?

By Matt | Published July 2, 2016

Eight years to the weekend that DCW broke the news about Obama possibly giving his acceptance speech outdoors, as DocJess noted, the rumors are flying again:

Discussions are in the works to move Hillary Clinton’s presidential nomination acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention away from the Wells Fargo Center to a larger location, Billy Penn has learned.

Philly Congressman Bob Brady said nothing has been finalized but “there’s talk about it. Continue Reading...

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Will anyone be speaking at GOP convention?

By Matt | Published June 27, 2016

Besides Trump and his VP?

With the convention less than a month away, POLITICO contacted more than 50 prominent governors, senators and House members to gauge their interest in speaking. Only a few said they were open to it, and everyone else said they weren’t planning on it, didn’t want to or weren’t going to Cleveland at all — or simply didn’t respond. –Politico

Among the non-attendees: Rep Trey Gowdy, Rep Mark Sanford, Rep Sean Duffy, Rep Carlos Curbelo, Sen Kelly Ayotte, Gov Bruce Rauner, Sen Lindsey Graham, Rep Elise Stefanik, Rep Richard Hudson, Rep Mia Love Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math — Week of June 13

By tmess2 | Published June 11, 2016

The end is finally here.

On the Republican side, the voting is over and the only delegate selection still to come is the South Dakota state convention starting on June 24.  Depending upon which count you use, Trump has slightly over 1,440 delegates who are bound to him by current Republican Party rules (and another 80 who are officially uncommitted who have pledged to support him).  Of course, every time Trump opens his mouth, some senior figure in the party begins longingly considering the power of the Rules Committee and the Convention to change those rules.  Whether Trump has enough loyal delegates to survive himself is unclear (and it is unlikely that the Republicans would take this extreme step), but Trump is the exact type of candidate who would justify throwing the rules out the window to save the party.

The Democratic side still has a little more work to do.  With the caveat that the count in California is not yet final, Secretary Clinton currently has around 2,180 pledged delegates to 1,797 delegates for Senator Sanders — a clear majority of pledged delegates (even if Sanders wins every delegate still theoretically up for grabs, he would still be approximately 300 delegates behind Secretary Clinton). Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math Week of June 6 — Part 2 (California)

By tmess2 | Published June 5, 2016

As discussed in part 1, the math in both parties has been relentless.  After last night’s results in the U. S. Virgin Islands, the Greenpapers has Clinton only 85 votes short of clinching the nomination in its “soft” count.  Barring a large number of superdelegates endorsing Clinton over the next forty-eight hours, today’s primary in Puerto Rico does not have enough delegates at stake (60 total) to put Clinton over the top, but the states discussed in Part 1 (New Jersey, South Dakota, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Montana) have more than enough delegates to put Clinton over the top.  Sanders is urging the media to remember that superdelegates can change their minds and depart from past practice by not declaring Clinton the nominee unless she wins enough pledged delegates to put her over the top (almost impossible).

With so few contests left, it is all but certain that Clinton will win the pledged delegate count.   Even the attempt to win additional delegates in the later stages of caucus states is not going well.  While the Washington Democratic Party has only posted the names of the delegates elected by the Congressional Districts (not the candidates that they are supporting), they have announced the allocation for the state-wide delegates (which is based on the breakdown of the Congressional District delegates).  Based on that allocation, Clinton won between 17 and 19 delegates at the Congressional District level (post-precinct caucus estimates had her winning 18).    In the other states that have already held first-tier caucuses, there are only 48 delegates still at stake (with Sanders having a 28-20 advantage).    (6-2 in Idaho, 7-8 in Iowa, and 15-10 in Nebraska).  Gaining more than five delegates from these states is unlikely, and adding it to the potential gain of 1 in Washington, Clinton would still have a 261 delegate lead heading into Puerto Rico.  Since for reasons discussed previously, Sanders is probably going to have a net loss of delegates between Puerto Rico and the other states on Tuesday, Sander’s outside hope of significantly closing that gap come down to California.

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Delegate Math Week of June 6 (Part 1)

By tmess2 | Published June 1, 2016

The week of June 6 marks the end of the Republican primary season and is the next to last week of primaries for the Democrats.  Given the sheer size of California, I will leave that state for its own post.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump is likely to go over 1,237 bound delegates this week.  (He is currently ninety-eight bound delegates short of that number.  Depending upon the site doing the count, he either currently has enough verbal commitments from unbound delegates or is just short of enough to reach that 1,237 number.  There was a time in early April when there appeared to be  a chance to keep Trump short of that number, but his opponents were never able to unite in a coherent strategy (and John Kasich never had enough funding) to target districts and states were Cruz or Kasich could win delegates.

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Delegate Math — Week of May 30th

By tmess2 | Published May 26, 2016

The primary campaign enters the home stretch.  Depending upon which count you use, Donald Trump either has or is about to clinch the Republican nomination.  (The counts differ in their estimate of how many of the officially “uncommitted” delegates have pledged to support Trump.  Trump is 139 short by the “bound” delegate count.)  Because there are no Republican contests this week, the only thing that can change between now and the next (and final) Republican contests on June 7 will be additional pledges from uncommitted delegates.

This week the action is all on the Democratic side in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Between now and the Virgin Island’s contest, there will be some minor adjustments as results are certified from the April states and as superdelegates announce their support for one of the candidates.  However, barring a large number of superdelegates endorsing Clinton, the delegates up for stake this week should not be enough to clinch the nomination.  At the present time, Clinton is approximately 100 delegates short of clinching the nomination.

The Virgin Islands contest on June 4 is a little bit unusual.  At the territorial mass meeting, attendees from St. Croix will select three delegates.  Attendees from the other islands will select four delegates.  Assuming that both candidates meet the fifteen percent threshold, St. Croix will almost certainly split 2-1.  The other four delegates will either split 3-1 or 2-2.   As a result, the most likely outcomes are either a 5-2 or a 4-3 split (most likely in favor of Clinton).  At this stage of the race, the results in the Virgin Islands will not make much of a difference in the delegate count.  At most the Virgin Islands will play into any “momentum” argument that the Sanders campaign wants to make to the superdelegates.  (That argument is the same reason why Sanders is considering a recount in Kentucky even though such a recount would probably only change one delegate at most.) Continue Reading...

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