Category Archives: Elections

International Elections — Round 2

By tmess2 | Published June 30, 2024

Earlier this month, I posted about international elections — specifically India, South Africa, and the U.K.  At that time, I overlooked two elections, and one of those two elections has triggered another election which is taking place today.

So we start with the elections for the European Parliament.  It is easy to overlook the elections for the European Parliament.  There are no truly Europe-wide parties.  Instead, the national parties align themselves into blocks in the European Parliament with block membership being somewhat fluid.  More importantly, many of the major decisions are made by the Council of Ministers (i.e. the representatives of the national government) with a consensus required for action.  As a result, the election tends to produce a large protest vote against the individual national governments with the opposition parties doing well with voters not paying much attention to the issues that Parliament does have to decide.  More significantly, none of the blocks has anything close to a majority of seats. There were weird country-specific shuffles with unaffiliated members now being the second largest group in the European Parliament behind a block that is generally center-right.

However, the main impact of the election was in France.  Heading into the election the two of the largest parties in France were tied.  However, there was a big swing between the (minority) government center-left party and the ultra-nationalist party which ended up with over 35% of the French seats.  Which moves us to the new election. Continue Reading...

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June Primaries — Colorado, New York, and Utah (and South Carolina runoffs)

By tmess2 | Published June 19, 2024

The last ten days of June are going to be busy — 20+ Supreme Court opinions, maybe the first (and only) presidential debate of the cycle, and the last of the “Spring” primaries.  The last Tuesday in June features three states (along with the runoffs in South Carolina).

In South Carolina, the only congressional race to make it to the runoff was in the third district.  This was expected given the number of candidates running.  In the first round, Mark Burns finished 4 percent ahead of Sheri Biggs.  As he only had 33% of the vote, in theory, that meant a very competitive runoff would follow.  But Donald Trump has put his thumb on the scale behind Mark Burns, a wannabe theocrat.  In similar situations, in other states, the second place candidate has opted to stand down.  Apparently, Ms. Biggs is not conceding, but her chances do not look good.

In Colorado, the big news is the open primaries in all three Republican-held seat, especially the game of muscial chairs in the third and fourth districts.  The current representative in the third is Lauren Boebert.  Representative Boebert managed to tick off enough of her neighbors with her personal misconduct (google Beetlejuice and Boebert) and her utter lack of seriousness in Congress.  So she was looking at a competitive primary and a serious general election challenger.  Fortunately for her, she also annoyed ultra-conservative Representative Ken Buck enough that he could not take wasting another day in Congress with folks like Boebert throwing away the Republican majority.    So he decided that he was not only not going to seek another term, but that he was also going to resign.  Now for state and local politicians from the Fourth District, this decision was the opening that they had been waiting for.  They had built up their reputations in their own part of the Fourth District and were ready to try to step up a level.  But for Representative Boebert, it was a lifeline.  You don’t need to reside in the district that you represent; so she decided that she was going to switch districts.  As a result, there are open primaries in  both the third and fourth district rather than just the fourth district.  There is also the nasty need to hold a special election in the fourth.  Representative Boebert could not run in the special election because that would require giving up her current seat.  But the special election is on the same day as the primary.  If one of her opponents had gotten picked by the party to run in the special election, that might give them an edge in the primary.  Representative Boebert managed to convince the Colorado Republicans to go with somebody who was not seeking the full term as the candidate in the special election. Continue Reading...

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Late Spring Primaries — June 11 and June 18.

By tmess2 | Published June 9, 2024

Yesterday marked the last presidential primary contests (in Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands).  While some states have a unified primary (presidential and state/congressional), others do not.  while a significant number of the spring state/congressional primaries are part of a unified primary, there are some states that have a separate spring state/congressional primary.  Ten states are having state or congressional primaries over the next three weeks.  After June 25, there will be a month-break with the rest of the primaries taking place in August and September.    Additionally, there will be a special election in Ohio.  A big theme of these primaries will be what happens to some Republican agents of chaos.

Starting with the elections on June 11, first up is Maine.  Both congressional districts are currently held by Democrats.  In both districts, there is a Republican primary.  The first district leans Democratic and the second district leans Republican.   Thus, it is not a surprise that there is a little more money in the Republican primary in the second district.  Both of the Republican candidates in the second district are state representatives.

Unlike Maine, things are a little more chaotic in Nevada.  The Republicans have ten candidates running for U.S. Senate for the right to challenge Jacky Rosen.  The top two fundraiser on the Republican side are Sam Brown (the preferred candidate of the national party) and Jeff Gunter who has gotten significant support from the Freedom Caucus.  Depending on which poll you trust, either Sam Brown has a comfortable lead or it is a dead heat.  At the house level, all three of the Democratic seats are lean Democratic seats, and you have multiple candidates running for the Republican nomination in all three (three in the fourth district, six in the first district, and seven in the third district). Continue Reading...

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International Elections — June 2024 edition

By tmess2 | Published June 1, 2024

As long-time readers of this site know, I periodically check-in on what is going on in other democracies.  As much as some Americans think that other countries should just do what the U.S. demands, leaders in other countries face internal restraints on what they can do.  In democracies, those constraints come the voters and the desire to win the next election.  As such, elections in other countries matter to U.S. foreign policy.  This post will focus on three countries with elections (either on-going or about to occur).

Up first is South Africa.  In South Africa, voting is over and the results are almost final.  What makes South Africa important (other than being the largest democracy in Africa) is that this election represents a crucial turning point for South African democracy.  Since the fall of apartheid, the African National Congress has been the dominant party.  But there comes a point in every democracy when the founding generation either gives way to a younger generation or personality conflicts results in splits within the founders.  At this time, the governing party loses an election.  And the hallmark of a functioning democracy (as much as a certain presidential candidate may disagree) is that the parties accept such a result and there is a peaceful transfer of power.

Based on the results so far (about 99% of the vote has been counted as of the writing of this post), the ANC has only received about 40% of the vote.  While there are some complexities to South African elections due to the use of national and provincial lists, that should result in the ANC getting about 160 seats out of the 400 seats in parliament.  That leaves the ANC as the largest party in parliament but not the majority.  There will need to be coalition talks to choose the new president and the new premiere.  How these talks resolve will lay a foundation for the future of democracy in South Africa.  Will the current president (as demanded by some of the opposition parties) step aside to allow a compromise candidate (but still from the ANC) be chosen or will there be some shenanigans and corrupt deals to keep the incumbent in power. Continue Reading...

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2024 Primaries — Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon (and California Special Election)

By tmess2 | Published May 19, 2024

This week several states have primaries, but it is unlikely that many of them will be significant.  In addition, we have the runoff in California for Kevin McCarthy’s old seat.

Starting with the special election in California.  Under the top two system in California, the Republicans got both slots in the runoff.  So when the results are finally certified in June, the Republicans will go back up to 218 seats.  The only issue is which Republican gets the slot — McCarthy’s handpicked successor (Vince Fong) or County Sheriff Michael Boudreaux.  This is likely to be a low turnout election which means that anything could happen.  The same two candidates have made the general election in November which will have much higher turnout, but the winner on Tuesday will have a major advantage for the November election.

Georgia had to redraw districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act, but Republicans in the legislature solved that issue by simply redrawing the map so that the Democratic district was majority-minority and making the Republican district whiter (with the numbers flipped).  Thus, the end result in Georgia is likely to be the same.  For the most part, incumbents are likely to prevail, but some incumbents ended up with significantly altered districts.  Additionally, the Third District is an open seat.  Starting with the Third District, this rural district in western Georgia will almost certainly go Republican in November.  There are five candidates running.  The most likely outcome on Tuesday will be a runoff.  The top three candidates in fundraising are Mike Crane, Michael Dugan, and Brian Jack, and it is likely that two of the three will make the runoff.  The other race of interest is the Sixth District.  This race is the one most likely impacted by the redrawing of the lines.  Representative Lucy McBath currently represents the Seventh District.  That district was chopped up to avoid the Democrats gaining a seat in redistricting, and Representative McBath is now running in the Sixth District.  As best as I can tell, there is no overlap between the new Sixth and the old Seventh.  While Representative McBath will be favored in this race, there is a chance of an upset.  Unfortunately, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene did not draw any primary opponents and thus is likely to be back for another term. Continue Reading...

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UK Local Elections

By tmess2 | Published May 1, 2024

This week (Thursday, May 2) are the local elections in the UK.  While city councils (and the functional equivalent for areas outside of the cities) have some powers, the primacy of the UK parliament (especially in England) often leads the vote for council members to be a way to express disapproval of the current government.  While some share of that “protest” vote comes from some otherwise loyal supporters of the governing party who will return to the fold for the next general election, the results in the council vote is often seen as a referendum on the current government.

The vote this year is particularly significant.  In the U.K., the national parliament is elected for a term of up to five years.  While for a period of time, the U.K. flirted with having a fixed term similar to Congress, the “fixed term” law allowed for parliament to agree to an early election.  In practice, it was impossible for the opposition to vote against an early election although the opposition could, to a limited extent, get some input on the date of the election.  So the U.K. went back to the old law which allows the government to call an early election.  We are now nearing the end of the current parliament’s term.  The last election in the U.K. was in December 2019.  In theory, the government could wait until the term ends to call the next election (which would then fall at the end of January 2025), but that would have the election period run through the holidays which would cause havoc with some of the deadlines related to the election.  As such, the expectation is the government will schedule the parliamentary elections in the early fall.

Generally speaking, council terms in England are for four years.  City councils fall into three basic types.  Some councils elect the full council every four years.  Some councils elect half their membership every other year.  And some councils have a four-year cycle in which they elect one-third of their members every year (with a fourth “off-year” in which no members were elected.  But vacancies can require special elections as part of the council elections to fill vacancies and boundary changes can require the full council to stand under the new ward lines even if the council election is normally for one-third of the council. Continue Reading...

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Ballot Access 2024

By tmess2 | Published April 21, 2024

In a completely shocking turn of events, some states (primarily those with a Republican Secretary of State) seem to be about to deny the Democratic ticket its place on the ballot.  The issue is that every state has a deadline for established parties to certify their presidential ticket to the state election authority.  Ohio is the earliest with a deadline ninety days before the election.  (Depending on the year, that deadline falls between August 4 and August 10.)  By contrast, Alaska’s deadline is forty-eight days before the election (with the deadline falling between September 15 and September 21).

The early deadlines are problematic because they ignore the informal traditions about the scheduling of the conventions and the real world.  The big real world issue which impacts the scheduling of the conventions is the Summer Olympics.  Barring cancellation or postponement (like happened in 2020), the Summer Olympics are always in the Summer of the presidential election year.  Simply put, the political parties want their convention to dominate the news and for all eyeballs to be glued to their convention.  (Of course, as the current nomination system has drained conventions of almost all of the drama, getting people to watch the convention is harder, but the parties do not want to compete with the Summer Olympics for viewers.)  And, over the years, the Olympics have expanded.  This year, the Paris Olympics runs from Wednesday, July 24 through Sunday August 11.  In practical terms, that means that the last potential week for a July convention is the week of July 15.  And, if you want some news coverage during the week leading into the convention, the first potential week for an August convention is the week of August 19.  Going back to 1992, the dates of the Summer Olympics has been:  1992 Olympics — July 25-August 9; 1996 Olympics — July 19-August 4; 2000 Olympics (held in Southern Hemisphere) — September 15-October 1; 2004 Olympics — August 13-29; 2008 — August 8-24; 2012 — July 27-August 12; 2016 — August 5-21; 2020 Olympics (original scheduled dates) — July 24 through August 9.   The other big world impact is that most states now use primaries to award delegates with the last primaries taking place in early June.  That makes it almost impossible for a major party to move its convention before July.

Turning to the informal traditions, the party out of power normally goes first.  The last time that the party in power went first was 1932.  (Prior to World War 2, the Republicans normally went first, but in 1956 (the first time that Republicans were in power after World War 2), the Republicans opted to go after the Democrats, and the tradition of flipping sequence based on which party held the White House has been followed ever since.  The dates for the party out of power since 1992 have been:  1992 — July 13-16 (Democrats/ending before Summer Olympics); 1996 — August 12-15 (Republicans/ starting 8 days after Summer Olympics); 2000 — July 31-August 3 (Republican/Summer Olympics not an issue); 2004 — July 26-29 (Democrats/ending before Summer Olympics); 2008 — August 25-28 (Democrats/starting 1 day after Summer Olympics); 2012 — August 27-30 (Republicans/starting 15 days after the Summer Olympics); 2016 — July 18-21 (Republicans/ending before Summer Olympics); 2020 — July 13-16 (originally scheduled)/August 17-20 (actual dates) (Democrats/ original schedule before Summer Olympics).  In other words, in the previous eight election cycles, the party out of power has held their convention “too late” to comply with the Ohio statute four times out of eight (three times if you use the original date).  The dates for the party in power since 1992 have been: 1992 — August 17-20 (Republicans/starting 8 days after Summer Olympics); 1996 — August 26-29 (Democrats/2 weeks after Republicans); 2000 — August 14-17 (Democrats/2 weeks after Republicans/Summer Olympics not an issue); 2004 — August 30-September 2 (Republicans/1 day after Summer Olympics); 2008 — September 1-4 (Republicans/week after Democrats); 2012 — September 4-6 (Democrats/week after Republicans); 2016 — July 25-28/week after Republicans/before Summer Olympics); 2020 — August 24-27 (Republicans/originally 15 days after Summer Olympics).  In short, the only time in the past 32 years in which the party in power held their convention before Ohio’s deadline was 2016 when the Olympics did not start until August. Continue Reading...

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Super Tuesday Week

By tmess2 | Published March 2, 2024

Tuesday is Super Tuesday — the first Tuesday of the primary cycle in which any state can hold a primary contest.  As most states use state-run primaries, there will be a large number of states on Tuesday.

But, before Super Tuesday, several states that are using party-run contests will be holding Republican contests as the “window” for the Republicans opened yesterday.  (The “window” for Democrats opens on Tuesday.)  As discussed last week, one of the contests today is the second half of the Republican’s Michigan two-step with the Republican state convention which will be allocating the “district” level delegates.  In addition to Michigan, today will see events in Missouri and Idaho.

The Missouri Republican rules are somewhat ambiguous.  It looks like they are doing a traditional caucus with a 15% threshold and an unspecified winner-take-all kicker at local option.  But rather than allocating delegates based on today’s vote (which is what the national rules appear to require), they are merely binding the delegates chosen today to vote the same preference at the district conventions (which should effectively have the same result).  Missouri is using a caucus because our current Secretary of State repeatedly lied and claimed that the state-run primary was nonbinding (when the rules of both party made the primary binding) and a repeal of the primary was slipped into an omnibus election bill which passed despite the unanimous opposition of Democratic legislature).  The Democrats will be holding a party-run primary in three weeks with a mail-in option. Continue Reading...

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South Carolina Recap

By tmess2 | Published February 27, 2024

It’s hard interpreting the Republican results for president this year.  If Donald Trump were the incumbent, the numbers that he is getting would be the sign of substantial opposition within the party.  If this year were a truly open primary (i.e. he was not being treated as the “incumbent candidate” by Republicans), his results would be outstanding.

But the bigger story out of Saturday might be at the Congressional District level and is about the House of Representatives, not the presidency.  Nikki Haley only won one of the seven congressional districts — the First District.  Nancy Mace is the current, two-term, incumbent.  She was one of the “Freedom Caucus Eight” who voted to vacate the chair.  Kevin McCarthy is apparently planning on supporting a primary challenger to Representative Mace.  Does the fact that Nikki Haley got 53% of the vote show that a majority of the Republicans in the First District will support an establishment challenger to a Trumpist candidate.  If so, the Representative Mace’s time in Congress might be coming to a quick end.  Additionally, while the lines were a little different, the last time that the Republicans were this divided and supported the more extreme primary candidate, the Democrats managed to win this district (in 2018).  So, if the Democrats find a credible candidate for the general and Representative Mace wins the primary, perhaps enough real Republicans do not vote in the general or opt to vote for the Democrat to take this seat away from the Freedom Caucus.

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2024 Presidential Primaries — South Carolina Republicans and Michigan

By tmess2 | Published February 24, 2024

As we head into the last week of February, we are also reaching the end of the authorized early primaries.  Under the respective rules of the two parties, there is a preliminary window in which only some states were authorized to hold early primaries/caucuses.  For the Republicans, the “regular” primary window opens on March 1.  For Democrats, the “regular” primary window opens on the first Tuesday in March (March 5).

For this last week, we have three primaries on the book.  First up, today, is the South Carolina Republican primary.  South Carolina law allows the parties to choose the date of their own primary, and the two parties have tended to choose different dates (but usually a Saturday).  And so we had the Democratic primary several weeks back which was won by President Joe Biden.  Now, it’s the Republican primary.  While there are seven candidates on the ballot, two of them are not known nationally, and three of the nationally-known candidates have dropped out.  In other words, while five of the candidates may get some votes, there are only two with any chance of winning delegates — former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and a candidate who ineligible to be president, Donald Trump.  South Carolina Republicans use a “winner-take-most” system for allocating delegates.  In other words, each congressional district has three delegates and whomever wins that district gets all three delegates.  Likewise, there are twenty-nine at-large delegates, and whomever wins the state gets all twenty-nine delegates.  Especially with only two serious candidates in the races, whomever wins statewide will have won at least one congressional district (and probably will have won more than one).  Thus, the winner of the primary is guaranteed to take at least 32 of the 50 delegates (which is why this type of system is referred to as winner-take-most).  Despite the fact that Nikki Haley used to be the governor of South Carolina, the traditional Republican Party in South Carolina is dead and has been replaced by the Trump Party.  While anybody who did not vote in the Democratic Primary could theoretically vote in the Republican Primary, there probably will not be enough independents and Democrats voting to save the Republican Party from itself.  Polls show Donald Trump leading by a wide enough margin that he should win all fifty delegates, and the only question is whether Nikki Haley can make it close enough to steal a district or two.

On Tuesday, we will primaries for both parties in Michigan.  President Joe Biden should win the state easily.  Neither Representative Dean Phillips nor Marianne Williamson is a serious contender to reach the fifteen percent to win delegates.  The real contender to take delegates away from President Biden is “uncommitted.”  Representative Rashida Tlaib has been encouraging voters to vote for uncommitted in protest of President Biden’s middle of the road stance on Israel’s response to Hamas’s invasion of Israel.  While the pro-Palestinian progressive wing of the Democratic Party has a problem with Israel trying to remove Hamas from the Gaza Strip, if President Biden were to do what they want him to do, it would guarantee Donald Trump’s victory in November.  If uncommitted stays below 15% (state-wide or in any individual district), President Biden will win all of the delegates (state-wide or in that district).  The largest districts have seven delegates; so it is unlikely that uncommitted will get more than one delegate in any individual district.  The one exception to that might be Representative Tlaib’s district.  And the issue in that district will be whether uncommitted can get to the 21% necessary to win a second delegate.  If uncommitted does not win any delegates in that district, we could see a primary challenge to Representative Tlaib emerge.  State-wide, there are twenty-five at-large delegates and fifteen party-leader delegates.  As such, if uncommitted were to get to fifteen percent state-wide, uncommitted would get, at least, four at-large and two party-leader delegates.   But the expectation is that President Biden will win almost all of the 117 delegates at stake on Tuesday. Continue Reading...

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