Category Archives: Elections

The Trump Ballot Case and the Precedents of Nat Turner and John Brown

On Friday, the United Staes Supreme Court decided to grant President Trump’s Petition for Certiorari in Trump vs. Anderson.  However, it took no action on the companion Petition for Certiorari filed by the Colorado Republican Party in Colorado State Republican Central Committee v. Anderson.  Before turning to the issues raised in this case, there are two things to note about the Supreme Court order granting review and the petitions filed.

First, in granting Trump’s petition, the Supreme Court implicitly recognized the necessity to resolve this issue quickly.  The briefs of Trump and his enablers in the Republican Party (and related organizations) are due on January 18, less than two weeks after the order granting review (as opposed to the usual 45 days).  The briefs of Trump’s challengers and the Colorado election official who are in the middle of this case are due thirteen days later on January 31 (along with any outside brief from individuals who want to support Democracy) with any reply briefs due five days later on February 5.  This contrast to the normal deadlines of 45 days for petitioner’s brief with respondent’s brief due 30 days later and the reply brief an additional 35 days later. Additionally, the case will be argued on February 8 which is a special setting in the middle of what would otherwise have been the Supreme Court’s winter break.

Second, the Supreme Court did not rewrite Trump’s question presented.  Typically, the question prsented in a petition for certiorari is narrowly focused on one legal issue.  For example, did the lower court err in finding that the potential for the metabolizing of blood alcohol content is an automatic exigent circumstance permitting law enforcement officers to conduct a warrantless blood draw?  If there are multiple issues in a case, the petition will present multiple questions on which the Supreme Court can pick and choose which issues will be considered at the time that the petition is granted.  For example, the Colorado Republican Party presented three issues:  1) does Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment apply to the President; 2) is Section 3 self-executing; and 3) does disqualifying a candidate violate the First Amendment rights of political parties.  By contrast, the Trump Petition, after noting the ruling (that his actions and the office of President fell within the restrictions of Section) simply asks whether the Colorado Supreme Court erred by excluding him from the ballot.  In other words, unlike the usual question which identifies a specific legal error in the ruling, the Supreme Court appears to be allowing the consideration of any potential theory on why the Colorado Supreme Court erred. Continue Reading...

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Special Elections 2024

Things are about to get very interesting in the House of Representatives.  While there have been a large number of representatives who are not running for re-election.  The irony of Republicans explaining their reason for leaving as the unpleasant environment in Congress is hard to miss.  But the focus of this post is not on those leaving in January 2025.  It is those who have left (involuntarily) or are about to be leaving mid-term.

At the present time, we have a vacancy in New York’s Third District due to the expulsion of fraudster who called himself George Santos.  (And the fact that the majority of House Republicans did not want to expel him despite overwhelming evidence of fraud while wanting to open an impeachment of President Biden with no evidence says something about the shell of a serious political party that the Republicans have become).  But we have also had announcements of the intent to resign in three other districts (so far) —   California’s Twentieth District (former Speaker Kevin McCarthy who will be leaving sometime later this month or in early January),  New York’s  Twenty-Sixth District (Democrat Brian Higgins who will be leaving in February), and Ohio’s  Sixth District (Republican Bill Johnson who will be leaving in March).

These departures in the House will alter the size of the Republican majority in the House.  The rules for vacancies in the House are different than the rules for vacancies in the Senate.  Under the Seventeenth Amendment, the governor of each state can temporarily fill a vacancy in the Senate until an election can be held to fill the balance of the term.  By contrast, there is no equivalent provision for the House.  Thus a House seat remains vacant until there is a special election.  For both the House and the Senate, the timing of the special election is left to the state.  Especially for the Senate, there is a wide range of rules with some states leaving the appointee in office until the next regularly scheduled election (which can create the weirdness of having two elections for the same office — one for the last three to four weeks of the current term and one for the next term — at the same time) and others requiring a prompt special election.  But the states also have different rules for the scheduling of House elections (and who chooses the candidates). Continue Reading...

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A Manchin-less Senate

This week, Senator Joe Manchin (I/D — WVa) announced that he would not be running for re-election.  If Senator Manchin does not end up on the “Let’s split the anti-Trump vote” “No Labels” ticket, this decision is both positive and negative for what Democrats might be able to do in the 2025-26 Congress.

To paraphrase a saying attributed to Karl Rove, progressive want to nominate the most progressive candidate that can win a general election.  In West Virginia, Joe Manchin might just have been the most progressive candidate that Democrats could nominate and still have a chance at winning.  His name recognition and reputation allowed him to win a state in which the average Democrat has hoping to receive 40-45% of the vote in the general election.

Is it possible that, one day in the future, Democrats could be competitive in West Virginia again?  Yes.  But, in one crucial way, West Virginia resembles the pre-Civil War South.  In today’s West Virginia, coal mining is a key industry.  While only 2% of the state directly works in coal (like only a tiny percentage of Southerners owned slaves), coal is the second largest industry (beyond the health sector) based on GDP generated.  In many parts of the state, if coal mining stopped tomorrow, there would be significant job losses in many areas of the state which would also cause retail and service industries to decline in those areas.  And the number who see their livelihood as tied to coal is a large enough percent to make the pro-coal vote a significant block in West Virginia elections.  This puts Democrats in a bind.  It is essential for the nation and the world for the U.S. to reduce its reliance on coal.  But recognizing and acting on this necessity hurts Democrats in West Virginia.   As such, the reality is that without Joe Manchin running, it is almost certain that Democrats will lose the Senate race in West Virginia.   And given how close the Senate is currently divided, the loss of this seat will make it harder for Democrats to have a majority in the Senate after the 2024 election. Continue Reading...

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November 2023 Elections

In the U.S., in something that would be a surprise to the Franers, the presidential election has become the “main” election.  Turnout is always highest for the presidential election.  But that is not the only only election, and other elections can be even more important.  To save money, most states have their statewide elections coincide with federal elections (either the presidential election or the mid-term election).  But a handful of states have taken a different approach and hold their elections in odd-numbered years.  In addition, many states (while holding the elections for state offices at the same time as federal election in even-numbered years) hold local elections in the odd-numbered years.  And most states, even if November in odd-numbered years is not a “regular” election date keep it available as a potential election date for special elections and propositions.   This year, the November election will feature several big races.

At the state-wide office level, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky hold their elections for governor in the year immediately proceeding the presidential election.  Louisiana is a little different because it holds a “jungle primary” which is actually an open general election (i.e. no party primaries) with a runoff if nobody gets 50%.  This “primary” election was several weeks ago, and the Republicans picked up the governor’s office in Louisiana.  Given that Louisiana is a deep red state, this pickup was not too surprising as it takes the right Democrat to have a chance at winning and the incumbent Democrat was term limited.  The new governor is a right wing extremist, and we will probably be hearing a lot of nonsense out of the Pelican State for the next eight years.

But the races for Governor in Kentucky and Mississippi will be on Tuesday.  (At least the initial vote will be on Tuesday as Mississippi has a runoff provision if nobody gets to 50%.)  The governor in Kentucky is a Democrat and the governor in Mississippi is a Republican.  Both are favored to be reelected but the challengers in both states have chances at pulling an upset.  In Kentucky, the challengers big advantage is that he is a Republican.  But the Republican candidate has been a controversial figure as Attorney General, and the Democratic incumbent is popular which might be just enough to hold onto the office.  In Mississippi, the Governor has gotten entangled in some scandals and the challenger happens to be a member of a famous family even if that fame was over 50 years ago.  But Mississippi is still a deep red state.  In short, the most likely outcome is that there will be no changes, but it is also possible that either or both states could flip. Continue Reading...

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Candidate Trump — Felon Ballot Access Restrictions and the Fourteenth Amendment

We are heading into uncharted waters.  A major political party has become a cult in thrall to a person who may not be eligible to run for president (or at least barred from the ballot in several states) who insists that he should be the nominee in 2024.  Add to that a martyr complex by the true believers who have taken over many state parties, and we are heading into potential chaos for the Fall of 2024.

Of course, one of the complexities is that the national election for president is when the electoral college meets and votes and sends those votes to Congress to be counted.  Up until that Wednesday in December, we have fifty-one elections for presidential electors and more elections for delegates to the nominating convention.  Each of the jurisdictions (states and territories) involved in these elections have different rules and procedures.

Having said that, there are several general things that are consistent from state to state.  First, for the general elections, the parties certify the name of their presidential and vice-presidential candidate in late August or early September.   Second, there is a state election authority which receives and processes the candidate paperwork for state and federal candidates.  For the most part, these officials rarely refuse candidate filings, but they are tasked with determining whether the filing to be on the ballot is complete and shows that the candidate is eligible to run under state law.  Third, decisions on whether a candidate qualifies to be on the ballot is subject to some form of judicial review.  But, assuming that the election authority finds that a candidate is eligible to run, the different states have different rules on who can challenge that determination.  In all, or almost every state, the opposing candidates have the right to bring such a case, but the rules as to who else has that right differs from state to state.  Fourth, if, for some reason, a party’s nominee has to be replaced on the ballot, it generally falls on the state party to name a replacement.  Fifth, for the presidential election, there is actually a ticket composed of the candidates for president, the vice-president, and the presidential electors.  It is the last two or three where the potential for chaos emerges. Continue Reading...

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The Independent State Legislature Theory, Election Law, and the Trump Crimes

Recently, a federal grand jury in the District of Columbia returned an indictment charging the Orange Menance with crimes related to his attempted coup after the 2020 election.  It is expected that within a week or two a state grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia will add state charges related to the efforts of dictator-wannabe Donald Trump to convince Georgia election authorities to alter the results of the election in that state.

Much of the crimes committed by Donald Trump and his band of incompetent coconspirators were based on a flawed version of the independent state legislature theory and a misunderstanding of election mechanics.

First, the independent state legislature theory.  The independent state legislature theory is based on two clauses in the U.S. Constitution.  One of the clauses is found in Article I and applies to the election of members of Congress.  The other clauses is found in Article II and deals with the selection of presidential electors. Continue Reading...

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Direct Democracy in Ohio

This Tuesday, voters in Ohio will decide the future of direct democracy in Ohio.  For the most part, the U.S., like many other democracies is a republic.  In other words, the usual way that laws get made is through the legislative process with elected representatives debating, amending, and voting on proposals.  In theory, the will of the majority is expressed through their representatives.  A little over a century ago, reformers during the Progressive Era argued that there were flaws in the representative system that sometimes allowed a minority to block useful and popular legislation.  The remedy was the initiative and referendum process which allowed ordinary voters to get proposals on the ballot were they could be directly determined by the voters.

Now, not every state has authorized the initiative and referendum process.  Even in those that do, the rules differ as to how many signatures are required.  However, for the most part, states that allow for direct democracy (whether through proposals initiated by voters or by proposals referred to the voters by the government) only require a simple majority for the proposal to pass.

Even from the beginning, there has been resistance to the initiative and referendum process.  After all, special interests that are able to get what they want from elected officials do not like the voters having the ability to override those efforts. Continue Reading...

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The Mostly Dead Independent State Legislature Theory

Two clauses of the Constitution — one for Congressional elections and one for the selection of presidential electors — give the primary responsibility for adopting the rules governing elections to state legislatures.  The problem with these two clauses is that the U.S. Constitution does not create state legislatures.  Instead, state legislatures are created by the states themselves.  Not too surprisingly, different states structure their legislatures differently — one state (Nebraska) only has a unicameral legislature, many states allow the voters to initiate and approve legislation, each state has a different number of legislative districts, and some states have unique rules on what laws can be vetoed by governors and how many votes it takes to override a veto.

Traditionally, the Supreme Court has resolved this problem by holding that the election clauses simply refer to the legislative power of the state.  Each state is free to create its own rules about the composition of the state legislature, how many votes it takes to pass legislation, and which body gets to make certain election-related decisions (including delegating the redistricting power to independent commissions).    There has been a theory floating for years on the conservative side that these clauses establish a state legislative power that is “independent” of state law and state constitutions.  While this theory keeps reemerging, this theory has repeatedly failed to be adopted by the U.S. Supreme Court.

In the last round of redistricting, several state court (including North Carolina, Ohio, and New York) invalidated redistricing maps based on state constitutional provisions related to elections.  Initially, the North Carolina courts invalidated that’s states congressional redistricting plans.   North Carolina Republicans asked for the Supreme Court to review that decision based on the independent state legislature theory arguing that the U.S. Constitution barred state courts from interfering with the state legislature’s power under the U.S. Constitution to set election laws related to federal elections even if those laws violated the state constitution. Continue Reading...

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Voting Rights Act — A Glimmer of Hope

On Thursday, the United Supreme Court issued its opinion in Allen v. Milligan,  a case in which Alabama voters challenged the state’s new congressional district lines under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.  As people may remember, due to COVID and the resulting delay in the 2020 census, Alabama completed its redistricting process shortly before filing began.  Although the voters quickly filed their case, and the three-judge panel quickly heard the challenge and issued its decision, a 5-4 majority decided that any change caused by any new lines issued by the judges would be too close to the start of the election process (but that the legislation changing the lines was not) for the judge-drawn lines to be used in the 2022 election.  So the 2022 election was held under the new lines drawn by the legislature while the U.S. Supreme Court decided whether those lines were valid.  In its ruling this week, five justices (with Justice Kavanaugh switching sides and Justice Jackson replacing Justice Breyer) upheld the trial court ruling.

To start with the legal considerations, Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act bars any voting practice or procedure that causes a protected group to “have less opportunity than other” groups “to elect representatives of their choice.”  While Section 2 also contains language disavowing an express requirement of proportionality, previous cases have found that Section 2 applies to redistricting and that it requires those bodies charged with redistricting to consider whether the maps give sufficiently large racial and ethnic groups a fair shot at electing a proportionate number of members.  Basically, this is done by drawing either “minority influence” districts (in which minorities are a large enough percentage of the voters that they can form a majority by aligning with like-minded non-minority voters) and “minority majority” districts. (in which the minority group is over 50% of the likely voters).

The current language in Section 2 was adopted in the early 1980s.  The first major case applying Section 2 to redistricting devised a three-part test.  First, the voters needed to show that minority voters are sufficiently concentrated that there is a reasonable map which would give them an additional minority influence or minority majority district.  In equal protection cases, the Supreme Court has made clear that maps that grossly violate traditional considerations to force geographically dispersed minority enclaves into the same district are forbidden.  Second, the voters must show that the minority group is politically cohesive.  In other words, that a significant majority sees itself as one group and tend to support the same type of candidate.  (For example, it might be harder to show that Asian voters are a group but easier to show that Vietnamese voters are a group.)  Third, the voters must show that the majority group (almost always white voters) will oppose the candidate supported by the minority group.   In other words, the last two parts require showing that racialized voting is still common in the jurisdiction. Continue Reading...

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What the Indictment Might Mean for 2024

To begin with the obvious, an indictment is a document used to formally bring criminal charges against an individual (here the Orange Menace).  Under the law, all criminal defendants are presumed to be innocent of the charged offense, and the prosecution has the burden to present sufficient evidence to convince twelve jurors to unanimously agree that the evidence proves that defendant guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

There is no precise timetable for when a case must go to trial.  The U.S. Supreme Court has held that, as a matter of federal constitutional law, a trial begun within eight months of charges being filed is sufficiently speedy to satisfy the speedy trial clause of the U.S. Constitution.  If, as often happens, it takes more than eight months to bring a case to trial, the courts then use a balancing test to decide how long is too long.  In theory, Trump might be able to delay the trial until after the 2024 election.  If he succeeds in this goal, the problems for him will be mostly how much of a distraction the pending case(s) will be (both in terms of time and money) and how voters react to the charges.  While it’s too early to tell for sure, the initial reaction of voters seems to be that the true believers will see any accusation against their god as persecution and an attempt to block them from electing him.  This groups might be just enough to get him the Republican nomination, but this group is not large enough to get him elected.  On the other hand, a significant group of swing voters seem to be tired of the chaos and criminality associated with Trump, and these charges (unless something else comes out to undermine them) seem likely to make it harder for Trump to win the general election.

The “interesting” questions come when Trump is convicted.  (Most defendants are convicted.  While there is an old saying that a grand jury would indict a ham sandwich, that saying is only half true.  Yes, the prosecution controls what a grand jury hears, but they still need some credible evidence that the defendant committed a crime.  And, after you get the indictment, you still need to win a trial.  While some prosecutors might put the hand slightly on the scale to get an indictment in a case that is a close call, it does little good to bring charges when your evidence is so weak that you have no chance at getting a conviction.)  And this is a question of ballot laws in the fifty states (plus D.C.) and the rules of the Republican Party. Continue Reading...

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