Category Archives: General Election Forecast

DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast History

By Matt | Published August 23, 2016

On Sunday we showed you the DCW Presidential Forecast, with Clinton leading Trump 313-225. But how has Clinton’s lead grown since mid-June? Below, something you will not find anywhere else on the web: A chart over time showing both the summary, and the individual forecasts. Again, the purely poll based forecasts, TPM and FHQ, show the most impressive rise for Clinton, but they will be the quickest to drop if and when the state polls tighten. (Links to all forecasts at bottom)

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TPM
FHQ
NBC
Washington Post
Cook
ABC
Rothenberg
CNN

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DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast

By Matt | Published August 21, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast, showing Clinton up 313-225. Our last forecast on June 17 showed Clinton up 298-240.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The map shows the consensus view, the table shows each forecast that is used. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state. Right now, it’s Wisconsin,  but with NH now being Dem-Lean to Dem right now, all of the forecasts are showing Clinton with 273+ Electoral Votes Dem Lean or better.

The map below shows the consensus in each state. Clinton was leading 262-191 in the last forecast, but NH and VA moved to DL, with NV moving back to T, giving an 11 EV swing to Clinton. Continue Reading...

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Setting the Table: Demographics and the Election

By tmess2 | Published August 2, 2016

Vote by JessPart of the ugly reality of politics is that there are multiple ways that people identify themselves — parental status, marital status, gender, sexual orientation, religion, age, race, education.  In a more perfect world, some of these forms of self-identification would have no political meaning.  However, in today’s world, they still do.   One reason good pollsters reweight their samples by things like race and gender is because different races and genders tend to vote differently.

In light of this ugly fact, politicians trying to win election have three basic options for dealing with political demographics as they exist:  1) try to change what a demographic group thinks (persuasion); 2) try to increase turnout among groups that favor you (get out the vote); and 3) try to decrease turnout among groups that do not favor you (vote suppression).  The latter issue has been in the news again recently with several cases dealing with state voter ID laws, and that will be a topic for another post sometime within the next week.  This post is more about where the demographics stand now and what they might mean for the next three months of the campaign.

Continue Reading...

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DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast

By Matt | Published June 17, 2016

Welcome to the first edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast. The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The map shows the consensus view, the table shows each forecast that is used. We will be adding other forecasts as they become available. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state. Right now, it’s currently Florida. The more things change…

Remember, these forecasts are lagging indicators They won’t reflect the latest state polls until the forecasts are updated, and the pundit-based polls are very slow to move. (Some had no movement throughout the 2012 election).

State   Cook FHQ NBC ABC WPost Rothenberg  
Update   5/25 6/16 5/6 6/8 5/23 5/19  
Clinton D 201 192 187 201 201 223  
Clinton-Lean DL 103 53 66 61 51 26  
Tossup T 43 119 94 85 95 98  
Trump-Lean RL 27 38 46 16 27 0  
Trump R 164 136 145 175 164 191  
Clinton D 304 245 253 262 252 249  
Trump R 191 174 191 191 191 191  
Avg. 298 310 302 296 296 295 293  
  240 228 237 242 243 243 245  
                 
California 55 D D D D D D 55
DC 3 D D D D D D 58
Delaware 3 D D D D D D 61
Hawaii 4 D D D D D D 65
Illinois 20 D D D D D D 85
Maine 4 D D D D D D 89
Maryland 10 D D D D D D 99
Massachusetts 11 D D D D D D 110
Minnesota 10 D D D D D D 120
New York 29 D D D D D D 149
Rhode Island 4 D D D D D D 153
Vermont 3 D D D D D D 156
Washington 12 D D D D D D 168
Conn. 7 D DL D D D D 175
New Jersey 14 D D DL D D D 189
New Mexico 5 D DL D D D D 194
Oregon 7 D T D D D D 201
Michigan 16 DL DL DL DL DL D 217
Nevada 6 DL DL DL DL DL D 223
Pennsylvania 20 DL T DL DL DL DL 243
Wisconsin 10 DL D DL DL T T 253
Colorado 9 DL DL T DL DL T 262
Florida 29 DL T T T T T 291
Iowa 6 T T T T T DL 297
New Hampshire 4 T DL T T T T 301
Virginia 13 DL T T T T T 314
N. Carolina 15 T T T T T T 329
Ohio 18 T T T T T T 347
Arizona 11 RL T RL R RL R 358
Georgia 16 RL RL RL RL RL R 374
Kansas 6 R DL R R R R 380
Mississippi 6 R RL RL R R R 386
Missouri 10 R RL RL R R R 396
Montana 3 R R RL R R R 399
Utah 6 R RL R R R R 405
Alabama 9 R R R R R R 414
Alaska 3 R R R R R R 417
Arkansas 6 R R R R R R 423
Idaho 4 R R R R R R 427
Indiana 11 R R R R R R 438
Kentucky 8 R R R R R R 446
Louisiana 8 R R R R R R 454
N. Dakota 3 R R R R R R 457
Nebraska 5 R R R R R R 462
Oklahoma 7 R R R R R R 469
S. Carolina 9 R R R R R R 478
S. Dakota 3 R R R R R R 481
Tennessee 11 R R R R R R 492
Texas 38 R R R R R R 530
W. Virginia 5 R R R R R R 535
Wyoming 3 R R R R R R 538

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