Category Archives: GOP

Running Government Like a Business

By tmess2 | Published October 12, 2019

Conservatives often put out the mantra that we need to run government like a business.  The problem with that concept is that there are many different business models.   What it takes for a business to be successful depends to a large degree on the products that the business made and the structure of that business.  For the past several years, we have seen what happens when the government is run  like the Trump Organization, and it has not been pretty.

The business model of the Trump Organization had several major features.  First, and most importantly, it is a privately held organization in which Donald Trump is the primary owner.  In short, the Trump Organization was for over forty years the alter ego of Donald Trump.  He had complete control and did not answer to anybody.   Second, in the commercial real estate business, debt is not a bad thing.  It is not unusual for the purchase of a building to be financed with large loans (i.e. mortgages) that are refinanced when they come due (with very little payments made toward the principal and the debt only fully paid off when the building is sold).  Third, and pretty much unique to the Trump Organization, the far-flung nature of the holdings meant that the business rarely worked with other companies — beyond its bankers — on repeat occasions.  This lack of an on-going relationship with local contractors meant that Trump was able to break deals with the companies that he hired to work on his properties without having to worry about the need to make future deals with the same contractors.

Over the past several months, we have seen Trump repeatedly return to his practices from his time as a high risk real estate developer.  He has treated the U.S. government as if he were the sole owner making decisions for his personal benefit rather than the good of the country.  In particular, he has used his power to make the U.S.  government and foreign governments deal with the Trump Organization — rerouting government flights so that U.S. personnel have to stay at Trump properties while staying overseas and he has proposed holding international summits at Trump properties. Continue Reading...

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What Will Mike Pompeo Do?

By tmess2 | Published September 1, 2019

Prior to Mr.  Narcissist becoming President, Mike Pompeo was an up and coming Congressman from Kansas about to start his fourth term in what (up to that point) had been the very conservative but not completely bonkers wing of the Republican Party.  Since 2017, Mike Pompeo has been one of the handful; of “responsible adults” in the Trump Administration’s foreign policy establishment.  (Responsible in the sense that these individuals are not willing to dump our allies and cozy up to authoritarian regimes.)

Mike Pompeo is now facing a choice about what next that may have a key impact on who controls the U.S. Senate in 2021.  Back in 2014, Senator Pat Roberts had a tough race for his fourth Senate term — only getting 48% of the vote in the primary and 53% in the general election.  While Senator Roberts is a traditional conservative, that’s not conservative enough for many Kansas Republicans.  (For almost three decades, there has been a civil war in the Kansas Republican Party between very conservative Republicans and traditional conservatives.  The main success of the Kansas Democratic Party has come when the Kansas Republicans have picked candidates who are too conservative thereby driving moderates to vote for the Democratic candidate.)  For 2020, Senator Roberts has seen the writing on the wall and had opted to retire rather than face another nasty primary that he probably would have lost.

At this point, multiple candidates have expressed interest in running in the Republican primary for this seat including Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach.  As you may recall, the last time we saw Spawn of Satan, he was losing the governor’s race to Democrat Laura Kelly.  Many in the Senate Republican leadership and in the Kansas Republican Party fear that, if Kobach wins the Republican nomination (highly likely in a split field), a Democrat could actually win the Kansas Senate race.  Looking for a white knight savior, they think that Mike Pompeo would fit the bill, either driving most of the other candidates from the race or at least having enough name recognition and support to get most of the non-Kobach votes. Continue Reading...

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California Chaos

By tmess2 | Published May 29, 2018

With no primaries this week, the focus turns to June 5.  While there are several other significant states with primaries on June 5, the big one is California.  While California is a blue state, it is large enough that there is still a significant Republican contingent (14 Representatives) in the California delegation.  Measured either by total seats, by current Republican delegations, or by Partisan Vote Index score (6 in seats that are R+3 or more Democratic), California will play a significant role in which party has a majority in the House in 2019.  The House seats in California range from D+40 (Barbara Lee) to R+14 (Kevin McCarthy).

Aside from the size of California, the complicating factor for next week’s primary are the rules governing the primary.  California uses a “top two” primary.  Like a jungle primary (which is not really a primary, but a general election with a run-off rule), all the candidates from all of the parties run in one election.  (Thus a voter could pick a Democrat for Governor, a Republican for Lieutenant Governor, Green for U.S. Senate, and Peace and Justice for U.S. House.)  Unlike a jungle primary, in which a candidate can win the seat by getting over 50% in the “primary,” a top two primary is a true primary and the candidates who finish first and second will be on the November ballot.

The nature of the top two primary creates an element of strategy for the parties.  In districts in which you have the majority, having two strong candidates is a good thing.  It makes it possible that the general election will feature two candidates from your party.  In a district in which your lead is solid enough, you can even have three strong candidates without risking the seat.  On the other hand, if you are the trailing party in the district, you want fewer candidates from your party.  You can get away with having two candidates if the other party has more than two strong candidates and the district is close enough.  The bottom line, however, is that having three strong candidates in a close district can result in you being shut out of the general election. Continue Reading...

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Handicapping this Week’s Primaries

By DocJess | Published May 6, 2018

Tmess gave a great overview of the upcoming primary season.  This week, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia are up. In addition to Tmess’s information, here’s a little local color.

We’ll start in West Virginia because it’s just plain the most fun. There is a contested Republican Senatorial primary. The candidates are Don Blankenship, Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Now, the fun part here is that while there hasn’t been any polling to speak of, the “common wisdom” says that Blankenship has a real chance. And here is the part that will make you chuckle. Not only does Don not live in West Virginia, he lives in Vegas, as does his parole officer, AND he needs permission from his parole officer to travel out of state. I’m personally pulling for him to win — Mitch McConnell’s PAC (Mountain Families) recently spent $1.3 million on anti-Blankenship TV ads, as well as digital ads. This worked SO WELL for Mitch in Alabama a few months back. And by the way, Don refers to Mitch’s father-in-law as a “Chinaperson”. Very feminist of him. Bottom line, if Don can pull it off, Joe Manchin will breathe a sigh of relief. Joe is a mixed bag: we’d like to keep the seat to keep it blue, even though Joe’s is not a solid vote, but if it gives us the majority, there’s a lot of good in terms of process, not to mention Dick Schumer as Senate Majority Leader in lieu of Mitch. As an aside, one of Joe’s daughters is Heather Bresch — you remember her.  She’s the person for whom there is a special ring in hell because of upping the cost of EpiPens by 400%.  There are other races, as in, ALL the Congressional seats, but there is little chance any will change parties. But political junkies can look forward to 2020 when Governor Jim Justice is running for re-election — he was elected in 2016 as a Democrat and then came out in love with Donald Trump and changed parties.

In Ohio, there are two marquee races: Senate and Governor. Sherrod Brown (D) is looking to keep his Senate seat, and his primary challenger will be decided on Tuesday.  Smart money says it will be current House member Jim Renacci.  The seat leans Democratic. At the Congressional level, there is one open seat, the 12th, which will also generate a Special Election in August with the same cast of characters. The seat was held by Pat Tiberi (R), a member of Ways and Means who announced last year that he would leave Congress in January of 2018 (which he did) – conventional wisdom says he did so to enter the private sector AND avoid having to be involved with writing the Trumpkin tax bill. “They” say the seat leans Republican (it’s part of the Columbus suburbs) but in a wave year….. Continue Reading...

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Primary Season — Late Spring

By tmess2 | Published April 29, 2018

Because each state gets to set its own primary date, primary season is a gradual thing.  Putting aside a handful of exceptions (and run-offs), most primaries fall into two clusters.  The first cluster occurs in May and June (starting on May 8 and ending on June 26).  The second cluster occurs in August and September (starting on August 2 and ending on September 13).  During both clusters, most primaries occur on Tuesday, and there is at least one state on each Tuesday (other than May 29).

On May 8, there are primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia.  Key primaries are the Republican Senate primary in Indiana and West Virginia.  Both are states won by Trump in which Democratic Senators are running for re-election.  In Indiana, you have three candidates running for the Republican nomination.  It’s not clear that it really matters who wins or that there is much difference between the candidates.  West Virginia is a different matter.  The Republicans are scared to death that Don Blankenship could get the nomination.  Blankenship is the former CEO of one of the state’s larger coal miner and did time in prison related to miners who died due to unsafe mining practices.  The national GOP has (through super-pacs) been running adds against Blankenship.  In Ohio, the key races are for Governor with both parties having primaries in the race to replace term-limited John Kasich and Ohio’s 12th District in which there is both a regular primary and a special election primary (most of the candidates are the same in both, so both parties should have the same winner for both primaries, but there is always the chance in a close race that there could be a split result).

On May 15, there are primaries in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.  The big story is likely to be the new congressional districts in Pennsylvania.   Amazingly, there are no incumbent against incumbent primaries although there could be an incumbent against incumbent general election.  Given the newness of the lines, it will be interesting to see how the local interests will influence the candidates chosen. Continue Reading...

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The Republican Civil War — Alabama Edition

By tmess2 | Published September 24, 2017

The next seven days is one of those weeks that happen from time to time when there are a lot of events competing for the attention of political wonks — the German elections, the “long conference” at the Supreme Court, perhaps a vote on the latest Republican effort to repeal Obamacare, perhaps even more news on the Russian involvement in the 2016 elections and the Trump campaign’s connections to those illegal acts.  The most significant event, however, might be the Republican runoff in the Alabama Senate special election.

Over the years, a recurring topic on this blog has been the internal divisions in the Republican party (and to a lesser degree the divisions in the Democratic party).  The run-off in Alabama pits a conservative “Establishment” candidate (interim Senator Luther Strange) against the Tea Party/Trumpist candidate (State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore).    It is not possible to describe all of the wacky things that Justice Moore has done over the year that violated his oath of office (some of which got him removed from office the first time).  A Senator Moore would actually make Ted Cruz and Rand Paul look normal.

While Trump — perhaps seeing a need to at least pretend to work with the Republicans in D.C. — is supporting Senator Strange, but Breitbart and other parts of the Trump machine are supporting Justice Moore.  Current polls are showing Justice Moore with a comfortable (but not necessarily safe given how difficult it is to predict turnout) lead. Continue Reading...

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Voter Fraud and the Missouri Senate Race

By tmess2 | Published August 29, 2017

Earlier this month, the law on voting where you reside appears to have caught an unlikely person in an election law violation — Missouri’s Attorney General — and presumptive Republican Senate candidate — Josh Hawley.  To understand what happened, a little local background is in order.

The main campus of the University of Missouri is in Columbia — thirty miles away from the state capitol in Jefferson City.  Before becoming Attorney General, Hawley was a law professor at the University of Missouri.  Aside from his full time job, like some law professors, Hawley offered his assistance on cases that he thought deserved his assistance.  One of those cases involved aiding the religious owners of Hobby Lobby in their effort to deny birth control coverage to their female employees.  This case gave Hawley connections to ultra-conservative donors in Washington, and also was a selling point as he went around Missouri speaking to local Republicans in rural counties.   These two advantages allowed him to pull an upset last year in the Republican primary over the “establishment” conservative candidate in the Republican primary, and the Trump landslide helped him win the general election.

After the election is where the fun begins.  First, among the changes that flowed from the 2016 election, the new Republican governor appointed the state representative who represented part of Columbia and the surrounding area to an administration positions.  Before becoming Attorney General,  Hawley and his family lived in this district.   The Governor set the special election to fill this seat for this August (one of the available election dates under state law). Continue Reading...

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Healthcare: What’s Next?

By DocJess | Published July 19, 2017

As you’ve certainly heard, the Senate tax-cut-for-the-wealthy-at-the-expense-of-the-sick has met it’s death. Yes, Mitch will hold a “Repeal Only” bill next week, but that’s not going anywhere either. You may wonder why that vote is being held, and the answer is rather simple: Donald Trump is intellectually impaired. The White House has put a lot of pressure on Mitch to hold said vote because first, while #NotMyCheeto cannot name all 52 GOP senators, he holds out some hope that he can corral people to vote for it, and second, because he views the vote along the lines of a “loyalty” vote. He wants that opportunity to take names on who is “fir ‘im, and agin ‘im”. Also, Mitch would rather be a loser than a quitter.

So what’s left? Basically the option that cost John Boehner the speakership: bipartisanship. The other option would be for #NotMyCheeto to cease the insurance company payments, and dismantle the individual mandate via Executive Order, which would throw 32 million people off the roles of Exchange-based insurance as well as Medicaid as soon as the insurance companies could get new rate levels through the state insurance commissioners. While Trumpkin couldn’t care less, since his criminal family isn’t affected, and there’s no impact on Russians, the House and Senate DO care because the full house and a third of the Senate is up for re-election next year, and voters never forget who took something from them.

At the White House yesterday, Trumpkin said: “We’re not going to own it. I’m not going to own it. I can tell you the Republicans are not going to own it. We’ll let Obamacare fail, and then the Democrats are going to come to us.” Idiot. Continue Reading...

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The Week in Review

By tmess2 | Published March 25, 2017

There is an old saying that a week is a lifetime in politics.  In most weeks, there is a lot happening either behind the scenes or at lower levels (e.g., committee hearings and markups on bills that nobody is watching).  It is the rare week, however, that so much is taking place front and center competing for the attention of the American public.

The big story of the week was the non-vote on and the collapse of the Republican effort at major health care reform — the so-called Affordable Health Care Act (a name that in itself was an attack on the bill that it was trying to “repeal and replace,” the Affordable Care Act.   There are several significant aspects to this non-event.

First, despite their efforts, Donald Trump and Paul Ryan could not get the sizable Republican majority in the House to pass a bill (forget the exact details of the last version of the bill, they could not get a majority behind any version) on one of the top Republican priorities of the past seven years.  While Trump may have been a great negotiator, it is very easy to reach a two-sided deal.  (Of course, it’s possible that Trump’s belief in his negotiating skill may be one of his great delusions.  He may have just been offering the right deal at the right time and actually have been taken to the cleaners in his business negotiations.)When you have three or more sides to a deal, however, it becomes very difficult to keep everybody on board.  This problem is particularly true in politics — when one faction thinks that a bill is too conservative and the other faction thinks that the bill is too liberal, there really isn’t any change that could make both sides happy.  At that point, it’s not really about negotiating but selling. Continue Reading...

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Easier Said than Done

By tmess2 | Published January 8, 2017

While November was disappointing, the Democrats did gain seats in the Senate.  As a result, the Republicans only hold a 52-48 majority.  If three Republican Senators vote no on any confirmation or bill, it fails.  We are already seeing signs that the next two years could get very interesting — even if the Democrats are more responsible in using the filibuster than Republicans were.

Right now, the Republicans want to repeal the Affordable Care Act.  The Republicans have never been able to exactly what they don’t like about the Affordable Care Act other than that it was passed by a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress.   For seven years, the Republicans have been asserting the need to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.  While the Republicans have been relatively unified on their desire to repeal the Affordable Care Act, they have never been able to reach a consensus on how to replace it.

Continue Reading...

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